{"id":100,"date":"2011-08-20T11:46:25","date_gmt":"2011-08-20T11:46:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/08\/20\/les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-se-decident-a-londres\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:35:37","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:35:37","slug":"les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-se-decident-a-londres","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/08\/20\/les-cours-de-lessence-a-new-york-se-decident-a-londres\/","title":{"rendered":"Les cours de l&rsquo;essence \u00e0 New York se d\u00e9cident \u00e0 Londres"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;En ces temps imb\u00e9ciles d&#039;annonces de la fin de la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 et des haricots, li\u00e9e \u00e0 la volont\u00e9 des R\u00e9publicains am\u00e9ricains les plus radicaux de faire recaler Obama aux prochaines pr\u00e9sidentielles, nos \u00e9conomistes distingu\u00e9s nous annoncent que la consommation de p\u00e9trole dans le monde va se r\u00e9duire et donc que les cours du brut vont tout naturellement se replier. Bien s\u00fbr ils oublient le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion des puits en production qui naturellement voient leurs productions se r\u00e9duire de 4 \u00e0 7% par an et qui oblige les p\u00e9troliers \u00e0 amener chaque ann\u00e9e dans les 4 \u00e0 5 millions de barils\/jour de productions nouvelles ou am\u00e9lior\u00e9es (EOR) pour compenser cette r\u00e9duction naturelle des flux de production. Les quelques centaines de milliers de barils\/jour en plus ou en moins li\u00e9s \u00e0 une hypoth\u00e9tique conjoncture ne p\u00e8sent donc pas lourd par rapport \u00e0 la demande nouvelle. Les cours du p\u00e9trole swinguent lorsque les Bourses plongent, mais je voudrais souligner ici que certaines hi\u00e9rarchies sont respect\u00e9es et m\u00eame amplifi\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2015434ab4a38970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Marge raffinage et spread\" class=\"asset  asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e2015434ab4a38970c\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e2015434ab4a38970c-450wi.jpg\" style=\"width: 450px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#160;Le march\u00e9 du WTI \u00e0 New York dont on nous rabat sans-cesse les oreilles, est devenu un march\u00e9 r\u00e9gional largement approvisionn\u00e9 \u00e0 Cushing, Oklahoma, par les ressources locales et les pipe-lines en provenance du Canada. La r\u00e9f\u00e9rence des cours du p\u00e9trole Occidental est maintenant assur\u00e9e par la cotation du Brent \u00e0 Londres avec un confortable &quot;mark-up&quot; par rapport aux prix am\u00e9ricains. Avec la crise boursi\u00e8re r\u00e9cente cette primaut\u00e9 du Brent sur le WTI s&#039;est encore plus affirm\u00e9e (FIG., courbe bleue). Depuis le premier Ao\u00fbt le WTI a perdu dans les 12 dollars par baril alors que le Brent n&#039;a l\u00e2ch\u00e9 que 7 dollars. Le spread entre Brent et WTI a atteint les 27 dollars par baril, un plus haut historique.<\/p>\n<p>Tout naturellement les cours de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York qui d\u00e9pendent des cours des importations marginales d&#039;essence venant d&#039;Europe, s&#039;alignent eux aussi sur les cours du Brent. <span style=\"color: #0000bf\"><strong>La marge de raffinage entre essence et WTI atteint ainsi des valeurs sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 35 $\/baril <\/strong><\/span>(courbe rouge) pour le plus grand plaisir des raffineurs am\u00e9ricains&#8230;dont les cours de Bourse paradoxalement s&#039;effondrent.<\/p>\n<p>Il faut donc imaginer des r\u00e9sultats des Valero, Tesoro et autres purs raffineurs am\u00e9ricains en forte progression au troisi\u00e8me trimestre par rapport \u00e0 ceux du second trimestre qui n&#039;\u00e9taient pas si mal.<\/p>\n<p>On le voit malgr\u00e9 la baisse tendancielle des consommations d&#039;essence aux \u00c9tats-Unis les r\u00e9sultats du raffinage am\u00e9ricain vont \u00eatre superbes en 2011 en raison de la prime sur le Brent europ\u00e9en qui traduit mieux en dollars par baril les contraintes g\u00e9opolitiques (Libye, Syrie, Afrique Noire&#8230;) qui s&#039;exercent sur le p\u00e9trole mondial. Les cours de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York sont d\u00e9termin\u00e9s \u00e0 Londres.<\/p>\n<p>Le 20 Ao\u00fbt 2011<\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;En ces temps imb\u00e9ciles d&#039;annonces de la fin de la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 et des haricots, li\u00e9e \u00e0 la volont\u00e9 des R\u00e9publicains am\u00e9ricains les plus radicaux de faire recaler Obama aux prochaines pr\u00e9sidentielles, nos \u00e9conomistes distingu\u00e9s nous annoncent que la consommation de p\u00e9trole dans le monde va se r\u00e9duire et donc que les cours du brut vont [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":22972,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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