{"id":1023,"date":"2009-03-17T14:16:16","date_gmt":"2009-03-17T14:16:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/03\/17\/la-croissance-d\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:27:10","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:27:10","slug":"la-croissance-d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/03\/17\/la-croissance-d\/","title":{"rendered":"La croissance du march\u00e9 \u00e9olien mondial sera tir\u00e9e par l&rsquo;Asie pronostique le GWEC"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Le Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) vient de publier son rapport 2008. Ce document est int\u00e9ressant par sa partie analytique pays par pays mais \u00e9galement par la partie \u00e9tude prospective du march\u00e9 mondial des \u00e9quipements \u00e9oliens. Le GWEC fait justement remarquer que ses deux derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions de croissance du March\u00e9 \u00e9olien dans le monde pour 2007 et pour 2008 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pass\u00e9es dans la r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Pour la p\u00e9riode 2009 \u00e0 2013 l&rsquo;institution pr\u00e9voit toujours une croissance globale soutenue du march\u00e9 \u00e9olien mais avec des nuances selon les grandes r\u00e9gions (FIG.I). <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eoliengwecregions200820131.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"270\" alt=\"Eoliengwecregions20082013\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eoliengwecregions20082013.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Il pr\u00e9voit une croissance mod\u00e9r\u00e9e en Europe, avec un faible d\u00e9marrage en 2009 puis une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la croissance de 2010 \u00e0 2013. Pour l&rsquo;Am\u00e9rique du Nord, le march\u00e9 se r\u00e9tracte en 2009 pour retrouver son niveau de 2008 un an apr\u00e8s et continuer sa croissance par la suite. Mais c&rsquo;est l&rsquo;Asie qui assure surtout la forte progression mondiale, sponsoris\u00e9e par un Etat chinois qui veut favoriser les \u00e9nergies renouvelables. En 2013 le parc d&rsquo;\u00e9oliennes install\u00e9es en Asie \u00e0 117 GW devient aussi grand que le parc europ\u00e9en (FIG.II). <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eoliengwecregionscumul200820131.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"269\" alt=\"Eoliengwecregionscumul20082013\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eoliengwecregionscumul20082013.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Le c\u00f4t\u00e9 aga\u00e7ant du message de ce groupe de lobbying professionnel est la lancinante soi-disant \u00e9conomie de CO2 qu&rsquo;apporte ces installations, je cite Steve Sawyer le Secr\u00e9taire G\u00e9n\u00e9ral du GWEC: &quot;Les 332 GW de capacit\u00e9 que nous pr\u00e9voyons pour 2013 produiront 730 TWh d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie propre qui permettront d&rsquo;\u00e9viter d&rsquo;\u00e9mettre 438 millions de tonnes de CO2 chaque ann\u00e9e&quot;. Ceci ne serait vrai que si la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration \u00e9olienne se substituait aux \u00e9quipements existants, dans les faits elle participe \u00e0 l&rsquo;accroissement de production qui aurait pu \u00eatre assur\u00e9, par exemple, par une turbine \u00e0 gaz \u00e0 cycle combin\u00e9 qui \u00e9mettrait 0,35T de CO2 par TWh. Dans cette hypoth\u00e8se, pour produire les 730 TWh de 2013, <u>la combustion du gaz \u00e9mettrait 255 millions de tonnes de CO2 seulement<\/u>. Les &quot;\u00e9oliens&quot; se comparent \u00e0 un parc moyen th\u00e9orique qui \u00e9met 0,60T de CO2 par TWh, au lieu de se comparer \u00e0 la meilleure source d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie \u00e0 combustion \u00e0 flamme du moment qui pourrait avantageusement les remplacer.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; L&rsquo;autre remarque r\u00e9side dans le fait qu&rsquo;\u00e0 aucun moment le GWEC ne se pose la question d&rsquo;une concurrence \u00e9ventuelle. L&rsquo;\u00e9olien rafle toutes les subventions, m\u00eame en 2013. Il est cependant probable qu&rsquo;\u00e0 l&rsquo;horizon 2010 ou 2011 dans certaines contr\u00e9es ensoleill\u00e9es le solaire photovolta\u00efque dont les prix des \u00e9quipements auront fortement baiss\u00e9, prenne peu \u00e0 peu le pas sur l&rsquo;\u00e9olien, ou tout au moins entame franchement son monopole. Pensons \u00e0 l&rsquo;Espagne, l&rsquo;Italie o\u00f9 Sharp entend s&rsquo;installer, la Californie et bien d&rsquo;autres pays encore. Les Etats, comme ils le font d\u00e9j\u00e0 aujourd&rsquo;hui, devront arbitrer, mais ce sera de plus en plus en faveur du solaire, du moins dans certains pays.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.gwec.net\/fileadmin\/documents\/Publications\/Report_2008\/Global_Wind_2008_Report.pdf\">LIRE<\/a> le Global Wind 2008 report du GWEC.<\/p>\n<p>Le 17 Mars 2009.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Le Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) vient de publier son rapport 2008. Ce document est int\u00e9ressant par sa partie analytique pays par pays mais \u00e9galement par la partie \u00e9tude prospective du march\u00e9 mondial des \u00e9quipements \u00e9oliens. Le GWEC fait justement remarquer que ses deux derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":12175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eolien"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La croissance du march\u00e9 \u00e9olien mondial sera tir\u00e9e par l&#039;Asie pronostique le GWEC - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/03\/17\/la-croissance-d\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La croissance du march\u00e9 \u00e9olien mondial sera tir\u00e9e par l&#039;Asie pronostique le GWEC - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Le Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) vient de publier son rapport 2008. 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