{"id":1216,"date":"2009-02-06T22:08:59","date_gmt":"2009-02-06T22:08:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/02\/06\/total-rsisterai\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:21:02","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:21:02","slug":"total-rsisterai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/02\/06\/total-rsisterai\/","title":{"rendered":"Total r\u00e9sisterait mieux que ses pairs aux al\u00e9as des cours du p\u00e9trole"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">E<\/span><\/strong>n deux semaines les cours de la p\u00e9troli\u00e8re Total, tomb\u00e9s bien bas avec la crise, ont surperform\u00e9 l&rsquo;indice du CAC 40 dont elle est un des principaux piliers. Son cours de cl\u00f4ture entre le 23 Janvier et le 6 F\u00e9vrier s&rsquo;est valoris\u00e9 de 6 euros \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 42 euros soit une <u>augmentation de 16,2%<\/u> \u00e0 comparer \u00e0 celle de l&rsquo;indice CAC40 qui s&rsquo;est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 de 9,6% sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. De plus on apprend au d\u00e9tour des pages du Web, que <strong><span style=\"color: #000099\">Citigroup<\/span><\/strong> est pass\u00e9 de &quot;conserver&quot; \u00e0 &quot;acheter&quot; sur la valeur, en ces p\u00e9riodes de cours du p\u00e9trole d\u00e9prim\u00e9s. En creusant plus \u00e0 fond, il appara\u00eet que le Financial Times a publi\u00e9 Mercredi une \u00e9tude comparant la sensibilit\u00e9 des grands Groupes p\u00e9troliers aux fluctuations des cours du p\u00e9trole brut sur un crit\u00e8re: <u>l&rsquo;estimation du cash-flow op\u00e9rationnel en 2009<\/u> (FIG.). <\/p>\n<p>.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/oil_company_cashflow1.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"273\" alt=\"Oil_company_cashflow\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/oil_company_cashflow.gif\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Les auteurs de cette \u00e9tude, s\u00fbrement comp\u00e9tents et bien document\u00e9s compte tenu de la feuille de chou dans laquelle ils \u00e9crivent, ont estim\u00e9 le cash-flow op\u00e9rationnel de six compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res dans deux hypoth\u00e8ses: celle d&rsquo;un baril \u00e0 70$ et celle d&rsquo;un baril \u00e0 35$. Les r\u00e9sultats sont impressionnants: entre 70$ et 35$ <strong><span style=\"color: #000099\">Exxon<\/span><\/strong> perd 21 milliards de dollars de cash en restant tout juste positif, <strong><span style=\"color: #000099\">BP<\/span><\/strong> perd 19 milliards et se retrouve en forte perte de liquidit\u00e9s, <strong><span style=\"color: #000099\">Shell<\/span><\/strong> perd 17 milliards et lui aussi passe en perte de cash. Une seule compagnie sauve les meubles: <strong><span style=\"color: #000099\">Total <\/span><\/strong>qui avec une d\u00e9gradation moins forte, de 7,6 milliards de dollars, reste avec un cash op\u00e9rationnel positif de plus de 5 milliards de dollars. Total se comporte mieux dans la temp\u00eate que ses pairs.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Cette caract\u00e9ristique primordiale pour une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui doit continuer \u00e0 investir pour pr\u00e9parer l&rsquo;apr\u00e8s crise, doit \u00eatre attribu\u00e9e \u00e0 certains points forts de Total que sont un puissant r\u00e9seau de distribution, un raffinage moderne et rentable et des accords de partage de production qui d\u00e9favorables quand les cours du brut montent, deviennent de v\u00e9ritables garde-fou quand les cours s&rsquo;effondrent. <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Il faudra attendre le 12 F\u00e9vrier pour conna\u00eetre les r\u00e9sultats trimestriels de Total, mais l&rsquo;exp\u00e9rience montre que les Banques, \u00e0 moins d&rsquo;une semaine de la publication des r\u00e9sultats de la p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, ont bien souvent des &quot;intuitions&quot; g\u00e9niales.<\/p>\n<p>Le 6 F\u00e9vrier 2009.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; En deux semaines les cours de la p\u00e9troli\u00e8re Total, tomb\u00e9s bien bas avec la crise, ont surperform\u00e9 l&rsquo;indice du CAC 40 dont elle est un des principaux piliers. Son cours de cl\u00f4ture entre le 23 Janvier et le 6 F\u00e9vrier s&rsquo;est valoris\u00e9 de 6 euros \u00e0 pr\u00e8s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":11750,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Total r\u00e9sisterait mieux que ses pairs aux al\u00e9as des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/02\/06\/total-rsisterai\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Total r\u00e9sisterait mieux que ses pairs aux al\u00e9as des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; En deux semaines les cours de la p\u00e9troli\u00e8re Total, tomb\u00e9s bien bas avec la crise, ont surperform\u00e9 l&rsquo;indice du CAC 40 dont elle est un des principaux piliers. 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