{"id":1286,"date":"2009-01-24T12:11:09","date_gmt":"2009-01-24T12:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/01\/24\/ptrole-wti-lapl\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:18:38","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:18:38","slug":"ptrole-wti-lapl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/01\/24\/ptrole-wti-lapl\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u00e9trole WTI : l&rsquo;aplatissement de la courbe de contango et la saturation des stocks siffle la fin de la sp\u00e9culation \u00e0 la baisse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <strong>R<\/strong>\u00e9sum\u00e9 des chapitres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents: pour sp\u00e9culer sur l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie il faut partir d&rsquo;une \u00e9vidence : &quot;<u>la crise est grave, elle est pour la premi\u00e8re fois mondiale<\/u>&quot; puis en d\u00e9duire des cons\u00e9quences catastrophiques: &quot;<u>la consommation de p\u00e9trole s&rsquo;effondre, m\u00eame en Chine!<\/u>&quot; qui vont entra\u00eener les cours vers des valeurs inattendues: &quot;<u>le WTI va passer au dessous de 30 dollars le baril<\/u>&quot; tout en soulignant le caract\u00e8re d\u00e9risoire des restrictions de productions des pays membres de l&rsquo;OPEP &quot;<u>incapables de respecter leurs engagements<\/u>&quot;. Tel est le climat instaur\u00e9 par les annonces des diverses pythies de la Deutsche Bank ou de Goldman Sachs. En cons\u00e9quence, les cours des futures baissent, se mettent en formation de contango tr\u00e8s accentu\u00e9 (FIG. courbe rouge) il est alors grand temps pour les comparses de stocker du p\u00e9trole et de le vendre \u00e0 terme \u00e0 deux ou trois mois pour prendre 10 \u00e0 15$ du baril de marge. Cette forme de chasse en meute rel\u00e8ve d&rsquo;un processus qui frise l&rsquo;escroquerie, mais elle est parfaitement \u00e9thique, tout comme le fut l&rsquo;envol\u00e9e des cours du mois de Juin dernier sous l&rsquo;\u00e9vidence du &quot;Peak oil&quot; clam\u00e9e sur tous les tons et reprise par presque toutes les institutions &quot;comp\u00e9tentes&quot; aux exceptions notables de l&rsquo;OPEP et du CERA.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/contango2009015.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"362\" alt=\"Contango200901\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/contango2009012.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Mais la combine finit par s&rsquo;\u00e9venter, les cours des produits raffin\u00e9s se d\u00e9solidarisent de la baisse du brut, le Brent qui voit tout le p\u00e9trole partir vers les USA s&rsquo;appr\u00e9cie et les cours du WTI n&rsquo;atteindront jamais les 30$ le baril. C&rsquo;\u00e9tait du bluff, les gogos s&rsquo;y sont fait prendre. Alors hier, le 23 Janvier, les cours sont pass\u00e9s hier sur <u>l&rsquo;\u00e9ch\u00e9ance de Mars \u00e0 46,5 dollars le baril<\/u> et la courbe de contango s&rsquo;est fortement aplatie (courbe fonc\u00e9e). De toute fa\u00e7on le jeu se termine parce que les stocks sont pleins: Cushing \u00e0 plus de 33 millions de barils est proche de la saturation (FIG. II),<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/cushing2009011.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"360\" alt=\"Cushing200901\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/cushing200901.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a>&nbsp; les tankers dans le golfe du Mexique, remplis \u00e0 bloc, attendent la date de livraison vendue \u00e0 terme. Certains traders agac\u00e9s, notant la ferme volont\u00e9 de l&rsquo;Arabie Saoudite de sortir les cours de la d\u00e9pression, parlent d&rsquo;un mouvement de reprise imminent. Il semble que le march\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole soit sur le point de s&rsquo;inverser pour une remont\u00e9e des cours vers des valeurs plus r\u00e9alistes. Game is over.<\/p>\n<p>Le 24 Janvier 2009.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; R\u00e9sum\u00e9 des chapitres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents: pour sp\u00e9culer sur l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie il faut partir d&rsquo;une \u00e9vidence : &quot;la crise est grave, elle est pour la premi\u00e8re fois mondiale&quot; puis en d\u00e9duire des cons\u00e9quences catastrophiques: &quot;la consommation de p\u00e9trole s&rsquo;effondre, m\u00eame en Chine!&quot; qui vont entra\u00eener les cours vers des valeurs [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":11597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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