{"id":1367,"date":"2009-01-07T15:37:07","date_gmt":"2009-01-07T15:37:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/01\/07\/alerte-au-gaz\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:15:55","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:15:55","slug":"alerte-au-gaz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2009\/01\/07\/alerte-au-gaz\/","title":{"rendered":"Alerte au gaz…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Images_3\"<\/a> La guerre du gaz entre Ukraine et Russie se continue et s’envenime. Il ne passe d\u00e9sormais plus un M3 par l’Ukraine, que ce soit la faute de l’un, ou de l’autre, \u00e0 la limite, peu importe.
Regardons la situation.
On disait la Russie en difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re. Mais la difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re n’existe que si on accepte l’architecture financi\u00e8re. Elle peut \u00eatre d\u00e9nonc\u00e9e. L’histoire n’a jamais manqu\u00e9 de d\u00e9confiture en la mati\u00e8re.
Le syst\u00e8me de cr\u00e9dit s’est toujours recr\u00e9e. <\/p>\n

En revanche, on a soit affaire \u00e0 une mont\u00e9e en puissance russe (si la Russie a pris le risque de couper le gaz \u00e0 l’Europe occidentale, soit \u00e0 un loup\u00e9 ukrainien (ils pensent qu’ils vont \u00eatre soutenus).
Or s’il y a une chose qu’il faut \u00e9carter, c’est la possibilit\u00e9 de se passer de la Russie en mati\u00e8re de gaz.
Avec 30 % de la production, elle est incontournable.
Il est impossible de trouver 30 % en remplacement.
Si l’Europe avait un brin de jugeote, elle verrait la seule voie disponible : la r\u00e9duction de la d\u00e9pendance<\/a>, par la r\u00e9duction de la consommation et l’int\u00e9gration de la Russie au "concert europ\u00e9en".
Dans les deux cas, on va s’apercevoir d’un retour, c’est celui de l’\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle<\/a>. Une crise bancaire n’existe que parce que les hommes qui la g\u00e8re ont leurs limites intellectuelles (dans le cas de Trichet, assez basse d’ailleurs).
Dans une crise d’approvisionnement, il n’y a que deux possibilit\u00e9s. ON et OFF<\/a>. Il est possible que les russes aient choisis ce moment de bruit au proche orient, de d\u00e9clin am\u00e9ricain et de repli sur la sph\u00e8re nord am\u00e9ricaine pour entamer une crise dont l’Ukraine est finalement au deuxi\u00e8me plan. <\/p>\n

La question s’adresse \u00e0 l’Europe dans sa globalit\u00e9. Vladimir Poutine, alors premier ministre, avant de devenir pr\u00e9sident, offrit \u00e0 l’Europe la v\u00e9ritable fin de la guerre froide, par l’\u00e9tablissement d’une v\u00e9ritable s\u00e9curit\u00e9.
Aujourd’hui, ce n’est qu’une impression, mais elle peut \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9e comme une patience \u00e0 bout.
Elle veut une r\u00e9ponse, OUI ou NON.
Manquer d’argent est une chose. Se retrouver dans le froid, sans gaz, en est une autre.
Les pays d’Europe occidentale ont d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 se r\u00e9soudre \u00e0 un choix.
Ils sont dans la panade, car ils ont horreur de \u00e7a.
Il faut r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir, jouer aux \u00e9checs, alors qu’ils \u00e9taient dans le b\u00e9ni-oui-ouisme US.
Mais aujourd’hui, BHO (Barack Hussein Obama) a d’autres chats \u00e0 fouetter.
Le syst\u00e8me am\u00e9ricain se replie sur lui, sur sa crise \u00e9conomique, politique et morale, abandonne le proche orient et l’Europe. <\/p>\n

Mercredi 7 janvier 2009<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La guerre du gaz entre Ukraine et Russie se continue et s’envenime. Il ne passe d\u00e9sormais plus un M3 par l’Ukraine, que ce soit la faute de l’un, ou de l’autre, \u00e0 la limite, peu importe.Regardons la situation.On disait la Russie en difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re. Mais la difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re n’existe que si on accepte l’architecture financi\u00e8re. 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Il ne passe d\u00e9sormais plus un M3 par l’Ukraine, que ce soit la faute de l’un, ou de l’autre, \u00e0 la limite, peu importe.Regardons la situation.On disait la Russie en difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re. Mais la difficult\u00e9 financi\u00e8re n’existe que si on accepte l’architecture financi\u00e8re. 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