{"id":1456,"date":"2008-12-19T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-19T09:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/19\/la-spculation-s-2\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:13:08","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:13:08","slug":"la-spculation-s-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/19\/la-spculation-s-2\/","title":{"rendered":"La sp\u00e9culation sur les cours du p\u00e9trole alimente la hausse des stocks am\u00e9ricains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">I<\/span><\/strong>l est de bon ton en cette p\u00e9riode de fin d&rsquo;ann\u00e9e de sp\u00e9culer \u00e0 terme sur une hausse des cours du p\u00e9trole. Le march\u00e9 \u00e0 Terme du NYMEX vous y invite. En effet, la courbe des prix du baril est en contango, situation ou plus on s&rsquo;\u00e9loigne dans le temps et plus les cours sont \u00e9lev\u00e9s (FIG.). Dans ce cas il faut disposer de stock physique du produit cot\u00e9 qui va \u00eatre achet\u00e9 au cours du jour, \u00e0 bas prix, et revendu \u00e0 terme avec une marge de 20% \u00e0 50% selon l&rsquo;\u00e9ch\u00e9ance choisie. On le voit le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est pervers puisque cette sp\u00e9culation va faire cro\u00eetre les stocks et donc faire baisser le cours imm\u00e9diat, ce qui va inciter \u00e0 poursuivre la sp\u00e9culation \u00e0 la hausse et stocker d&rsquo;avantage. C&rsquo;est ce qui se passe en ce moment o\u00f9 malgr\u00e9 les d\u00e9cisions de l&rsquo;OPEP, malgr\u00e9 une timide reprise des consommations en produits p\u00e9troliers aux Etats-Unis, les cours poursuivent leur baisse. En termes clairs, il y a du fric \u00e0 faire en achetant physiquement du p\u00e9trole largement disponible \u00e0 36$ le baril et en le revendant \u00e0 terme \u00e0 55$. Une seule condition est n\u00e9cessaire: savoir le stocker.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ptrolenymex200812181.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"341\" alt=\"Ptrolenymex20081218\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ptrolenymex20081218.jpg\" width=\"449\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Alors on voit les stocks se gonfler. Le premier est \u00e0 Cushing, Oklahoma l\u00e0 ou se traitent physiquement les \u00e9changes du WTI trait\u00e9 sur le NYMEX.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ptrolecushing2008121.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"339\" alt=\"Ptrolecushing200812\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ptrolecushing200812.jpg\" width=\"465\"  \/><\/a> Les stocks dans cette bourgade se tra\u00eenaient depuis le d\u00e9but de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e en dessous des 20 millions de barils et subitement on les voit prendre leur essor. Les traders y stockent leur p\u00e9trole achet\u00e9 \u00e0 vil prix.<\/p>\n<p>L&rsquo;autre fa\u00e7on de faire est de stocker le p\u00e9trole sur des tankers. Il y aurait 25 p\u00e9troliers repr\u00e9sentant 50 millions de barils qui attendraient des jours meilleurs pour livrer leur cargaison d\u00e9j\u00e0 vendue \u00e0 terme aux Etats-Unis. Bien s\u00fbr ce stock ne figure sur aucune statistique nationale.<\/p>\n<p>On le voit, pour que les effets des restrictions de productions de l&rsquo;OPEP fassent effet sur les prix, il faut tout d&rsquo;abord qu&rsquo;il n&rsquo;existe plus de p\u00e9trole errant et que les stocks sp\u00e9culatifs s&rsquo;\u00e9puisent. On estime ces surstocks dans le monde entre 150 \u00e0 200 millions de barils. Avec un d\u00e9ficit de production de la part de l&rsquo;OPEP et ses alli\u00e9s du moment de deux millions de barils par jour, effectif d&rsquo;ici \u00e0 un mois, il faudra donc trois mois de plus pour purger la situation et voir les cours du p\u00e9trole repartir franchement \u00e0 la hausse. Cela nous am\u00e8ne vers le mois d&rsquo;Avril.<\/p>\n<p>Le 19 D\u00e9cembre 2008.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Il est de bon ton en cette p\u00e9riode de fin d&rsquo;ann\u00e9e de sp\u00e9culer \u00e0 terme sur une hausse des cours du p\u00e9trole. Le march\u00e9 \u00e0 Terme du NYMEX vous y invite. En effet, la courbe des prix du baril est en contango, situation ou plus on s&rsquo;\u00e9loigne [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":11223,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La sp\u00e9culation sur les cours du p\u00e9trole alimente la hausse des stocks am\u00e9ricains - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/19\/la-spculation-s-2\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La sp\u00e9culation sur les cours du p\u00e9trole alimente la hausse des stocks am\u00e9ricains - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Il est de bon ton en cette p\u00e9riode de fin d&rsquo;ann\u00e9e de sp\u00e9culer \u00e0 terme sur une hausse des cours du p\u00e9trole. 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Le march\u00e9 \u00e0 Terme du NYMEX vous y invite. 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