{"id":1459,"date":"2008-12-18T09:06:51","date_gmt":"2008-12-18T09:06:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/18\/etats-unis-leia\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:12:58","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:12:58","slug":"etats-unis-leia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/18\/etats-unis-leia\/","title":{"rendered":"Etats-Unis: l’EIA envisage des consommations am\u00e9ricaines de p\u00e9trole stables d’ici \u00e0 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"

                          L<\/span><\/strong>es exercices de pr\u00e9visions de consommation d’\u00e9nergie \u00e0 plus de 5 ou 10 ans n’ont de valeur que par ce qu’ils refl\u00e8tent de l’opinion du moment des auteurs sur les \u00e9volutions des modes de vie et des technologies futures. L’Energy Information Administration (EIA) qui est \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr l’\u00e9quipe la plus consciencieuse dans l’art de la pr\u00e9vision pour l’\u00e9nergie, publiait jusque l\u00e0, tous les ans, des consommations am\u00e9ricaines de p\u00e9trole en hausse. Les am\u00e9ricains devaient consommer de plus en plus d’\u00e9nergie. Et bien cette ann\u00e9e, dans ses pr\u00e9visions 2009, l’EIA consid\u00e8re que d’ici \u00e0 2030 l’\u00e9nergie consomm\u00e9e aux Etats-Unis va cro\u00eetre de 0,5% par an, pour un accroissement annuel  de population de 0,9%. L’\u00e9nergie consomm\u00e9e par citoyen va donc d\u00e9cro\u00eetre<\/u>: c’est d’une grande nouveaut\u00e9.<\/p>\n

                            Un des postes concern\u00e9s au premier chef est celui des consommations de p\u00e9trole pour lequel l’EIA voit des consommations stables d’ici \u00e0 2030 (FIG.).\"Eiaeo2009consoptrole\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                   La mont\u00e9e en puissance des biocarburants, de la biomasse en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral et plus marginalement des \u00e9nergies renouvelables va faire que les \u00e9missions de CO2 vont cro\u00eetre de 0,3% par an, moins vite que l’accroissement de consommation d’\u00e9nergie. Les \u00e9missions de CO2 cro\u00eetraient gentiment vers les 6,4 milliards de tonnes \u00e0 l’horizon 2030 (FIG.II). \"Eiaeo2009co2emissions\"<\/a> Bien s\u00fbr un tel sc\u00e9nario moins catastrophique que celui imagin\u00e9 un an auparavant n’est pas satisfaisant. En particulier, les hypoth\u00e8ses manipul\u00e9es par l’EIA sur le poste transport  ne conduisent qu’\u00e0 une r\u00e9duction des consommations d’essence de 0,8% par an, ce qui suppose la persistance d’une part importante de v\u00e9hicules de types 4X4 polluants encore commercialis\u00e9s en 2030 et une faible mont\u00e9e en puissance des v\u00e9hicules hybrides rechargeables ou \u00e9lectriques.<\/p>\n

                         On attendra donc avec impatience le m\u00eame exercice qui sera publi\u00e9 dans un an pour enfin voir baisser les projections de consommations de p\u00e9trole am\u00e9ricaines dans un document officiel. Le contexte politique sera s\u00fbrement plus favorable \u00e0 une politique volontariste de d\u00e9croissance des \u00e9missions de CO2.<\/p>\n

Le 18 D\u00e9cembre 2008.<\/p>\n

–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                          Les exercices de pr\u00e9visions de consommation d’\u00e9nergie \u00e0 plus de 5 ou 10 ans n’ont de valeur que par ce qu’ils refl\u00e8tent de l’opinion du moment des auteurs sur les \u00e9volutions des modes de vie et des technologies futures. L’Energy Information Administration (EIA) qui est \u00e0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":11216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nEtats-Unis: l'EIA envisage des consommations am\u00e9ricaines de p\u00e9trole stables d'ici \u00e0 2030 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/18\/etats-unis-leia\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Etats-Unis: l'EIA envisage des consommations am\u00e9ricaines de p\u00e9trole stables d'ici \u00e0 2030 - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                          Les exercices de pr\u00e9visions de consommation d’\u00e9nergie \u00e0 plus de 5 ou 10 ans n’ont de valeur que par ce qu’ils refl\u00e8tent de l’opinion du moment des auteurs sur les \u00e9volutions des modes de vie et des technologies futures. 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