{"id":1479,"date":"2008-12-14T22:26:52","date_gmt":"2008-12-14T22:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/14\/automobile-latt\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:12:10","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:12:10","slug":"automobile-latt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/14\/automobile-latt\/","title":{"rendered":"Automobile : l&rsquo;attente&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/jules_meline3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"301\"  width=\"250\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/jules_meline1.jpg\" alt=\"Jules_meline\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.e24.fr\/entreprises\/transport\/article32312.ece\">Nous aurons bient\u00f4t la r\u00e9ponse<\/a>. G. W. Bush est il aussi stupide qu&rsquo;il le parait, et aussi stupide que les \u00e9lus r\u00e9publicains. <br \/>Ces \u00e9lus ont eu \u00e0 choisir entre id\u00e9ologie, \u00e9conomie et pragmatisme. Ils ont choisi l&rsquo;id\u00e9ologie. <br \/>Bien s\u00fbr que les firmes automobiles ne sont pas innocentes. Elles ont accumul\u00e9es les erreurs. <br \/>A commencer par la r\u00e9gression salariale. <br \/>Mais, quelles seraient les cons\u00e9quences de leur faillite ? <br \/>D&rsquo;abord, une firme automobile ne rebondit pas quand elle a recours au redressement judiciaire. Elle finit de couler. Les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de d\u00e9clin des constructeurs automobiles sont des longs processus. <\/p>\n<p>Ensuite, les constructeurs am\u00e9ricains emploient, directement ou indirectement, dans la sous traitance, 3 millions de personnes. Les retrait\u00e9s sont nombreux aussi.<br \/>L&rsquo;\u00e9tat f\u00e9d\u00e9ral serait contraint de les assister. Pour un montant bien sup\u00e9rieur au montant demand\u00e9. On \u00e9voque -dans un premier temps- 200 milliards de US $. <br \/>Le d\u00e9p\u00f4t de bilan des constructeurs, entrainerait des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de bilan en chaine, et une d\u00e9faillance globale du cr\u00e9dit. En effet, le march\u00e9 de la dette GM notamment, est important.<br \/>Le montant serait au minimum de 1000 milliards de US $. <br \/>Ensuite, le d\u00e9p\u00f4t de bilan, de l&rsquo;un ou de l&rsquo;autre, entrainerait l&rsquo;un et l&rsquo;autre, \u00e9tendu aux implants des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s nipponnes. <br \/>Le march\u00e9 automobile, malade, plongerait encore plus. Il s&rsquo;est r\u00e9tract\u00e9 de presque 40 %. Il continuerait sa r\u00e9tractation. Hors beaucoup de constructeurs \u00e9trangers faisaient sur les USA, de gros b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. C&rsquo;est \u00e9clatant pour les nippons, mais les allemands ne sont pas en reste. <br \/>La chute des constructeurs, entrainerait la chute des march\u00e9s, la chute des march\u00e9s, d&rsquo;autres constructeurs, et ainsi de suite. <br \/>Un cercle vicieux se mettrait en place. <br \/>L&rsquo;automobile au tapis entrainerait le march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier au tapis. On peut penser que la d\u00e9faillance de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie globale serait extr\u00eamement rapide. <br \/>M\u00eame si l&rsquo;on n&rsquo;aime pas l&rsquo;automobile, il faut choisir entre un risque de collapsus tellement profond qu&rsquo;il peut emporter nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s dans le pire, dans une r\u00e9gression si rapide,<a href=\"http:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/la-crise-financiere\/article\/2008\/12\/13\/carlos-ghosn-pour-l-industrie-automobile-2009-c-est-l-annee-de-tous-les-dangers_1130712_1101386.html\"> si profonde<\/a> et<a href=\"http:\/\/tempsreel.nouvelobs.com\/depeches\/economie\/20081213.REU0675\/les_constructeurs_automobiles_tres_pessimistes_pour_200.html\"> si totale<\/a>, qu&rsquo;elle n&rsquo;est absolument pas \u00e0 souhaiter. <br \/>Ce serait, r\u00e9ellement,<a href=\"http:\/\/www.planeterenault.com\/news-2316-Renault+Une+crise+automobile+longue.html\"> r\u00e9volutionnaire<\/a>. Il est aussi probable que ceux qui prendraient cette d\u00e9cision, ne signent pas seulement l&rsquo;arr\u00eat de mort de cette industrie, mais leur propre condamnation. <\/p>\n<p>&quot;Nous ne pourrons pas occuper toute la population \u00e0 fabriquer des automobiles&quot; Jules M\u00e9line. <\/p>\n<p>Dimanche 14 d\u00e9cembre 2008. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nous aurons bient\u00f4t la r\u00e9ponse. G. W. Bush est il aussi stupide qu&rsquo;il le parait, et aussi stupide que les \u00e9lus r\u00e9publicains. Ces \u00e9lus ont eu \u00e0 choisir entre id\u00e9ologie, \u00e9conomie et pragmatisme. Ils ont choisi l&rsquo;id\u00e9ologie. Bien s\u00fbr que les firmes automobiles ne sont pas innocentes. Elles ont accumul\u00e9es les erreurs. A commencer par [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":11174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[526],"class_list":["post-1479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","tag-nous-aurons-bientot-la-reponse-si-profonde-si-totale"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Automobile : l&#039;attente... - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/14\/automobile-latt\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Automobile : l&#039;attente... - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Nous aurons bient\u00f4t la r\u00e9ponse. G. W. Bush est il aussi stupide qu&rsquo;il le parait, et aussi stupide que les \u00e9lus r\u00e9publicains. Ces \u00e9lus ont eu \u00e0 choisir entre id\u00e9ologie, \u00e9conomie et pragmatisme. Ils ont choisi l&rsquo;id\u00e9ologie. Bien s\u00fbr que les firmes automobiles ne sont pas innocentes. Elles ont accumul\u00e9es les erreurs. 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