{"id":1501,"date":"2008-12-10T09:51:42","date_gmt":"2008-12-10T09:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/10\/leia-amricaine\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:11:24","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:11:24","slug":"leia-amricaine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/10\/leia-amricaine\/","title":{"rendered":"L&rsquo;EIA am\u00e9ricaine anticipe un recul des consommations mondiales de p\u00e9trole en 2009"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">L<\/span><\/strong>a consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole dans le monde est la r\u00e9sultante de deux forces: l&rsquo;une en croissance qui est la consommation des pays NON OCDE (Chine, Inde, Russie, Moyen-Orient, Am\u00e9rique du Sud, Indon\u00e9sie, etc.) et l&rsquo;autre <u>en d\u00e9croissance<\/u> qui est celle du milliard de personnes des pays de l&rsquo;OCDE (Am\u00e9rique du Nord, Europe, Japon, Cor\u00e9e, Australie). Il a \u00e9t\u00e9 soulign\u00e9 ici \u00e0 plusieurs reprises, l&rsquo;importance de cette d\u00e9croissance certaine des pays OCDE, car voulue par les populations, sur la stabilisation des consommations mondiales. La croissance monotone des consommations projet\u00e9e jusque l\u00e0 par bien des Agences est donc totalement irr\u00e9aliste, puisqu&rsquo;elle passe par z\u00e9ro la volont\u00e9 des citoyens de moins d\u00e9pendre du p\u00e9trole, bien souvent import\u00e9 du Moyen-Orient ou de Russie. L&rsquo;OCDE dispose d&rsquo;une formidable r\u00e9serve d&rsquo;\u00e9conomies : le gaspillage am\u00e9ricain qui repr\u00e9sente pour le moins 8 \u00e0 10 millions de barils\/jour. Pour quantifier le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne, il est int\u00e9ressant de regarder les variations de consommations dans les deux zones de chaque ann\u00e9e par rapport \u00e0 l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, ce qui indique les pentes des courbes de consommations.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eiavariationconsommationmondiale2001.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"414\" alt=\"Eiavariationconsommationmondiale200\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eiavariationconsommationmondiale200.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Les valeurs sont issues de celles publi\u00e9es par l&rsquo;Energy Information Administration et comportent les pr\u00e9visions 2008 qui annoncent une d\u00e9croissance de 50 mille barils\/jour en 2008 par rapport \u00e0 2007 en raison de la tr\u00e8s forte chute des consommations OCDE (FIG. courbe rouge). Pour 2009 l&rsquo;EIA pr\u00e9voit une d\u00e9croissance de 450 mille barils\/jour par rapport \u00e0 2008 en raison de la poursuite des d\u00e9croissances de l&rsquo;OCDE (-1 million bl\/j) et d&rsquo;une moindre croissance des pays NON OCDE (+0,55 million bl\/j).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; La mise en perspective sur plusieurs ann\u00e9es montre que le retournement de tendance pour les pays OCDE ne date pas d&rsquo;hier. D\u00e8s 2005 et 2006 il \u00e9tait possible de noter cet infl\u00e9chissement.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; La r\u00e9duction des consommations de p\u00e9trole des pays OCDE de 3% \u00e0 4% par an (1,5 millions de bl\/j), ce qui sera la r\u00e9sultante des r\u00e9ductions de consommations de carburants dans les transports terrestre et de la r\u00e9duction des consommations dans les foyers, compensera la croissance des pays NON OCDE pendant une quinzaine d&rsquo;ann\u00e9es. La consommation de p\u00e9trole devrait rester stable ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement d\u00e9croissante durant toute cette p\u00e9riode aux environs de 85 \u00e0 86 millions de barils\/jour. La g\u00e9ologie du p\u00e9trole n&rsquo;aura rien \u00e0 voir dans cette affaire.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eiaconsommationmondiale200120091.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"414\" alt=\"Eiaconsommationmondiale20012009\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/eiaconsommationmondiale20012009.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Le 10 D\u00e9cembre 2008.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; La consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole dans le monde est la r\u00e9sultante de deux forces: l&rsquo;une en croissance qui est la consommation des pays NON OCDE (Chine, Inde, Russie, Moyen-Orient, Am\u00e9rique du Sud, Indon\u00e9sie, etc.) et l&rsquo;autre en d\u00e9croissance qui est celle du milliard de personnes des pays [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":11122,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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