{"id":1522,"date":"2008-12-06T15:46:33","date_gmt":"2008-12-06T15:46:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:10:50","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:10:50","slug":"la-baisse-conti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/","title":{"rendered":"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">U<\/span><\/strong>n syst\u00e8me bancaire en p\u00e9riode de crise doit pouvoir se refinancer \u00e0 des taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eats faibles pour pouvoir consentir \u00e0 ses clients des taux attractifs. Bien s\u00fbr ces taux incluent la marge de la Banque d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par la prise en compte du type de cr\u00e9dit, de la dur\u00e9e, des garanties apport\u00e9es par le client et de l&rsquo;\u00e9tat de la concurrence. En ces p\u00e9riodes de peu d&rsquo;inflation, il est donc n\u00e9cessaire que le taux de refinancement aupr\u00e8s de la Banque Centrale soit faible. Il est en ce moment&nbsp; de 1% aux Etats-Unis (1,25% pour le taux d&rsquo;escompte), de 2% en Grande-Bretagne et de 2,5% aupr\u00e8s de la BCE. Le taux de refinancement, malgr\u00e9 la baisse de 75 points de base (0,75%) de la BCE cette semaine, est plus p\u00e9nalisant pour les Banques et donc en final, pour les emprunteurs de la Zone Euro que pour les banques anglaises ou am\u00e9ricaines. Un indicateur simple consiste \u00e0 comparer les taux des bons du tr\u00e9sor de chacun des Etats, n\u00e9goci\u00e9s sur le march\u00e9 en fonction de l&rsquo;offre et de la demande avec ces taux administr\u00e9s (FIG.). <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans2008121.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"382\" alt=\"Taux10ans200812\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Tout au long du mois de Novembre et au tout d\u00e9but de ce mois nous avons assist\u00e9 \u00e0 une chute r\u00e9guli\u00e8re des taux des bons \u00e0 10 ans am\u00e9ricains de 130 points de base, avec un minimum Jeudi dernier \u00e0 2,55% pour le&nbsp; 10 ans. Le d\u00e9sint\u00e9r\u00eat des investisseurs pour les autres placements (bourse, immobilier, commodities) et le recul de l&rsquo;inflation est tel que l&rsquo;Etat am\u00e9ricain arrive \u00e0 placer du papier \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance 10 ans \u00e0 2,55%. Cette baisse a entra\u00een\u00e9 dans son sillage celle des bons europ\u00e9ens qui ont baiss\u00e9 de 110 points de base pour le britannique et de 87 points pour le bon allemand \u00e0 10 ans.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; La comparaison du 10 ans allemand avec le taux de refinancement de la FED (FIG. courbe rouge) montre la course \u00e0 la baisse des deux taux. Si la BCE ne veut pas se retrouver avec une courbe des taux invers\u00e9e elle est oblig\u00e9e d&rsquo;anticiper la baisse des taux du papier \u00e0 10 ans. Il est \u00e9vident qu&rsquo;avec la tendance actuelle la BCE aurait pu s&rsquo;aligner avec la Bank of England \u00e0 2%. Mais J.C. Trichet qui&nbsp; sera pouss\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser encore son taux directeur au plus tard le mois prochain, veut faire croire que c&rsquo;est encore lui qui d\u00e9cide. Totalement discr\u00e9dit\u00e9 par sa vielle hantise d&rsquo;une hypoth\u00e9tique inflation et des effets de second tour qui l&rsquo;avaient amen\u00e9 \u00e0 remonter le taux de la BCE le 9 Juillet, au maximum de pic de la sp\u00e9culation qu&rsquo;il avait lui m\u00eame entretenue, il est le seul \u00e0 partager cette conviction.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Notons en passant, que la baisse des taux va faire du bien au budget de notre pays trop fortement endett\u00e9. C&rsquo;est peut-\u00eatre cel\u00e0 qui agace le plus notre banquier central.<\/p>\n<p>Le 6 D\u00e9cembre 2008.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Un syst\u00e8me bancaire en p\u00e9riode de crise doit pouvoir se refinancer \u00e0 des taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eats faibles pour pouvoir consentir \u00e0 ses clients des taux attractifs. Bien s\u00fbr ces taux incluent la marge de la Banque d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par la prise en compte du type de cr\u00e9dit, de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":11077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Un syst\u00e8me bancaire en p\u00e9riode de crise doit pouvoir se refinancer \u00e0 des taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eats faibles pour pouvoir consentir \u00e0 ses clients des taux attractifs. Bien s\u00fbr ces taux incluent la marge de la Banque d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par la prise en compte du type de cr\u00e9dit, de [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/\",\"name\":\"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE - leblogenergie.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2008-12-06T15:46:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-07-12T11:10:50+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg\",\"width\":\"480\",\"height\":\"382\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\",\"name\":\"leblogenergie\",\"description\":\"Just another The Social Media Group Network site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\",\"name\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE - leblogenergie.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE - leblogenergie.com","twitter_description":"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Un syst\u00e8me bancaire en p\u00e9riode de crise doit pouvoir se refinancer \u00e0 des taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eats faibles pour pouvoir consentir \u00e0 ses clients des taux attractifs. Bien s\u00fbr ces taux incluent la marge de la Banque d\u00e9termin\u00e9e par la prise en compte du type de cr\u00e9dit, de [&hellip;]","twitter_image":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Raymond Bonnaterre","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/","name":"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE - leblogenergie.com","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg","datePublished":"2008-12-06T15:46:33+00:00","dateModified":"2012-07-12T11:10:50+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/taux10ans200812.jpg","width":"480","height":"382"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/12\/06\/la-baisse-conti\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Accueil","item":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"La baisse continue des taux longs met la pression sur la BCE"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/","name":"leblogenergie","description":"Just another The Social Media Group Network site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794","name":"Raymond Bonnaterre","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Raymond Bonnaterre"},"url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1522"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1522\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18723,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1522\/revisions\/18723"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}