{"id":156,"date":"2011-05-21T14:35:49","date_gmt":"2011-05-21T14:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/05\/21\/limportance-des-oscillations-multidecennales-du-climat-reprend-du-poil-de-la-bete\/"},"modified":"2012-07-16T13:21:22","modified_gmt":"2012-07-16T13:21:22","slug":"limportance-des-oscillations-multidecennales-du-climat-reprend-du-poil-de-la-bete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/05\/21\/limportance-des-oscillations-multidecennales-du-climat-reprend-du-poil-de-la-bete\/","title":{"rendered":"L&rsquo;importance des oscillations multid\u00e9cennales du climat reprend du poil de la b\u00eate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Il avait \u00e9t\u00e9 report\u00e9 ici les<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/la-prevision-climatique-une-science-en-plein-chamboulement.html_1.png\" target=\"_self\"> remarquables travaux de Scafetta<\/a> sur la p\u00e9riodicit\u00e9 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes climatiques sur une p\u00e9riode de 60 ans qui montraient, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une approche empirique de r\u00e9gression multilin\u00e9aire, que le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000 correspondait \u00e0 un maximum d&rsquo;un de ces cycles de temp\u00e9rature. Ces travaux remettaient \u00e0 la mode les vieilles th\u00e9ories cycliques de\u00a0 climatologues jug\u00e9s d\u00e9pass\u00e9s par les pr\u00e9dictions cataclysmiques des travaux de simulation de la nouvelle vague adh\u00e9rente au GIEC, le Saint Germain-des Pr\u00e9s \u00e9chevel\u00e9 du Marketing Climatologique. Ces travaux de Scafetta n&rsquo;avaient inspir\u00e9 naturellement que m\u00e9pris pour une large partie de la communaut\u00e9 des climatologues imperm\u00e9able \u00e0 de tels calculs math\u00e9matiques abscons. Mais cette science ayant attir\u00e9 de jeunes talents plus ouverts aux id\u00e9es pertinentes, il ressort des travaux d&rsquo;une partie de la th\u00e8se de Doctorat (PhD) de Marcia Glaze Wyatt \u00e0 l&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 du Colorado-Boulder, un des hauts lieux de la climatologie am\u00e9ricaine, une interpr\u00e9tation climatologique pertinente de ces observations de Scafetta.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e201543270b403970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"asset  asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e201543270b403970c\" style=\"width: 450px;\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e201543270b403970c-450wi.jpg\" alt=\"Scafetta-IPCC\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ce qui appara\u00eet de plus probable aujourd&rsquo;hui est que la non prise en compte de ces ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes cycliques par les groupies roulant pour le GIEC leur a permis de confondre une partie ascendante d&rsquo;un processus de type sinuso\u00efdal superpos\u00e9 \u00e0 un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne quadratique, pour le pied d&rsquo;une dynamique parabole (FIG., IPCC Prediction)&#8230;erreur potentiellement grossi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<p>Pour comprendre ces nouvelles interpr\u00e9tations des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes climatiques on se reportera au <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pensee-unique.fr\/oceans.html#ola\" target=\"_blank\"> site de Jacques Duran <\/a>qui r\u00e9alise, avec toute sa rigueur de Scientifique, un formidable travail de vulgarisation et d&rsquo;actualisation de ces th\u00e9ories climatiques d&rsquo;une grande complexit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>De toute \u00e9vidence une synth\u00e8se entre cyclicit\u00e9 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes et effets anthropiques reste \u00e0 faire pour mieux comprendre les variations du climat et affiner les pr\u00e9visions. Ceci devrait conduire \u00e0 des projections compl\u00e8tement chamboul\u00e9es par rapport aux catastrophes annonc\u00e9es du moment.<\/p>\n<p>Ces diverses hypoth\u00e8ses font partie de l&rsquo;\u00e9quation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de la d\u00e9termination par les nations des mix \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques du futur. Il me semblerait compl\u00e8tement irresponsable, bien que fortement vendeur et r\u00e9mun\u00e9rateur pour certains, que de vouloir d\u00e9terminer <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">de fa\u00e7on exclusive<\/span> toute politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique sur d&rsquo;hypoth\u00e9tiques pr\u00e9dictions climatiques de plus en plus remises en cause aujourd&rsquo;hui. La bonne sant\u00e9 \u00e9conomique du monde, la satisfaction des besoins \u00e9l\u00e9mentaires des plus d\u00e9munis et la paix entre les nations semblent plus importantes que quelques hypoth\u00e9tiques dixi\u00e8mes de degr\u00e9s en plus ou en moins. Il semblerait fort heureusement que les peuples et les responsables politiques des grands pays soient en phase avec cette conviction de bon sens, au grand dam d&rsquo;id\u00e9ologues radicaux pr\u00eachant le retour \u00e0 une frugalit\u00e9 qu&rsquo;ils sont incapables de d\u00e9finir tant elle serait destructrice.<\/p>\n<p>Si pour des raisons philosophiques ou de traditions tribales vous ne d\u00e9sirez pas rejoindre le site fran\u00e7ais en r\u00e9f\u00e9rence vous pouvez lire en r\u00e9sum\u00e9 de ces travaux de Wyatt <a href=\"http:\/\/pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com\/2011\/04\/21\/guest-post-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-and-northern-hemisphere%E2%80%99s-climate-variability-by-marcia-glaze-wyatt-sergey-kravtsov-and-anastasios-a-tsonis\/\" target=\"_blank\">sur le site de Roger Pielke<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Le 21 Mai 2011<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Il avait \u00e9t\u00e9 report\u00e9 ici les remarquables travaux de Scafetta sur la p\u00e9riodicit\u00e9 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes climatiques sur une p\u00e9riode de 60 ans qui montraient, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une approche empirique de r\u00e9gression multilin\u00e9aire, que le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000 correspondait \u00e0 un maximum d&rsquo;un de ces cycles de temp\u00e9rature. Ces travaux remettaient \u00e0 la mode les [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":22780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rechauffement-climatique","category-science"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L&#039;importance des oscillations multid\u00e9cennales du climat reprend du poil de la b\u00eate - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/05\/21\/limportance-des-oscillations-multidecennales-du-climat-reprend-du-poil-de-la-bete\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L&#039;importance des oscillations multid\u00e9cennales du climat reprend du poil de la b\u00eate - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Il avait \u00e9t\u00e9 report\u00e9 ici les remarquables travaux de Scafetta sur la p\u00e9riodicit\u00e9 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes climatiques sur une p\u00e9riode de 60 ans qui montraient, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une approche empirique de r\u00e9gression multilin\u00e9aire, que le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000 correspondait \u00e0 un maximum d&rsquo;un de ces cycles de temp\u00e9rature. 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