{"id":1569,"date":"2008-11-27T09:45:52","date_gmt":"2008-11-27T09:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/11\/27\/un-nouveau-jeu\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:09:17","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:09:17","slug":"un-nouveau-jeu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/11\/27\/un-nouveau-jeu\/","title":{"rendered":"Un nouveau jeu revient \u00e0 la mode: quels seront les prix moyens du p\u00e9trole en 2009?"},"content":{"rendered":"

                       A<\/span><\/strong>pr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 200$\/baril, et les visions \u00e0 250$\/baril d’un manager de Gazprom qui avait du trop se d\u00e9salt\u00e9rer ce jour l\u00e0, l’exercice du talent de visionnaire allum\u00e9 \u00e9tait pass\u00e9 de mode. Mais le ridicule ne tuant pas, le jeu des pr\u00e9visions repart de plus belle, mais cette fois il semblerait que l’outrance ait chang\u00e9 de sens. C’est \u00e0 la baisse qu’on en rajoute. On avait vendu en d\u00e9but 2008 du papier p\u00e9trole \u00e0 la hausse, en 2009 on va en vendre \u00e0 la baisse, l’essentiel c’est de faire rentrer les commissions. Alors un Merril Lynch, nous annonce ex-cathedra, que les charlots de l’OPEP ne pourront pas suivre leurs engagements et qu’il faut s’attendre \u00e0 un cours moyen pour 2009 de 50$\/baril et peut-\u00eatre \u00e0 une remont\u00e9e vers 70$ vers 2010.\"Panieropec\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                      Une large partie du niveau des cours du p\u00e9trole en 2009 va effectivement d\u00e9pendre de l’attitude de l’OPEP, puisque le march\u00e9 est pour l’instant en surproduction. Mais qui peut pr\u00e9juger du comportement de l’Arabie Saoudite dans les mois qui viennent. Une chose est certaine, elle vient de repousser bon nombre d’investissements dans le raffinage et dans l’exploration production. Tout se passe aujourd’hui comme si elle voulait avoir toute libert\u00e9 financi\u00e8re pour assumer ses futures d\u00e9cisions. Rien ne permet de penser qu’elle se satisfera d’un cours \u00e0 50$\/baril. Un simple examen des prix du panier OPEP depuis 1995 montre 50$ le baril effacerait pratiquement les hausses de prix des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Un point 2009 vers 75 ou 80 $\/baril serait plus dans la continuit\u00e9 tout en gommant les cours aberrants de 2008.<\/p>\n

                       Si l’Arabie le veut, elle peut lancer ses purs et durs que sont l’Iran et le Venezuela en premi\u00e8re ligne pour animer le d\u00e9bat. Ils ne demanderaient que cela. Pour l’instant l’Iran fait la police aupr\u00e8s des membres de l’OPEP pour qu’ils appliquent les quotas et que la rupture de pente de production soit nette. On va r\u00e9gler des comptes en famille au cours de la prochaine r\u00e9union le 17 D\u00e9cembre \u00e0 Oran.<\/p>\n

Le 27 Novembre 2008.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                       Apr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 200$\/baril, et les visions \u00e0 250$\/baril d’un manager de Gazprom qui avait du trop se d\u00e9salt\u00e9rer ce jour l\u00e0, l’exercice du talent de visionnaire allum\u00e9 \u00e9tait pass\u00e9 de mode. Mais le ridicule ne tuant pas, le jeu des pr\u00e9visions repart de plus belle, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":10970,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nUn nouveau jeu revient \u00e0 la mode: quels seront les prix moyens du p\u00e9trole en 2009? - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/11\/27\/un-nouveau-jeu\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Un nouveau jeu revient \u00e0 la mode: quels seront les prix moyens du p\u00e9trole en 2009? - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                       Apr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 200$\/baril, et les visions \u00e0 250$\/baril d’un manager de Gazprom qui avait du trop se d\u00e9salt\u00e9rer ce jour l\u00e0, l’exercice du talent de visionnaire allum\u00e9 \u00e9tait pass\u00e9 de mode. 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