{"id":1709,"date":"2008-11-01T17:21:23","date_gmt":"2008-11-01T17:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/11\/01\/les-missions-de-2\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:05:20","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:05:20","slug":"les-missions-de-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/11\/01\/les-missions-de-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Les \u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine: un sujet trop important pour \u00eatre laiss\u00e9 \u00e0 la seule propagande chinoise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">J<\/span><\/strong>&lsquo;avais mentionn\u00e9, lors d&rsquo;un pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent post, une \u00e9tude tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieuse publi\u00e9e en Ao\u00fbt 2007, sur la pr\u00e9vision des \u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine jusqu&rsquo;en 2010 par deux chercheurs am\u00e9ricains Maximilian Hauffhammer et Richard Carson des Universit\u00e9s californiennes de Berkeley et de San Diego. Leur travail part de donn\u00e9es analytiques de chacune des Provinces chinoises rassembl\u00e9es dans un tableau de 588 donn\u00e9es qui s&rsquo;\u00e9talent sur une p\u00e9riode allant de 1985 \u00e0 2004. Il utilise ces donn\u00e9es et divers mod\u00e8les bas\u00e9s sur une \u00e9quation du type <\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.2em\">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;I = P x A x T<\/span><\/strong>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; dans laquelle I est l&rsquo;impact, dans ce cas les \u00e9missions de CO2; P est la population; A l&rsquo;affluence ou la progression des populations urbaines et T un index technologique qui va d\u00e9pendre des nouveaux investissements.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/chineco2emissions20151.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"376\" alt=\"Chineco2emissions2015\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/chineco2emissions2015.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> Cette \u00e9tude a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e analytiquement, r\u00e9gion par r\u00e9gion, qui sont tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rentes entre elles, ce qui rend donc un mod\u00e8le global chinois impossible \u00e0 r\u00e9aliser, en raison de cette h\u00e9t\u00e9rog\u00e9n\u00e9it\u00e9.&nbsp; Ils pr\u00e9voient que les progressions d&rsquo;\u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine d&rsquo;ici \u00e0 2010 seront bien sup\u00e9rieures aux maigres r\u00e9ductions venant des accords de Kyoto. Les auteurs estiment une croissance annuelle des \u00e9missions de CO2 chinoises aux environs de <u>12% par an<\/u> qui sera donc, sur la p\u00e9riode 2000 &#8211; 2010, sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de la croissance du PNB de la Chine.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>Cette \u00e9tude argumente sur certains points forts qui sont les suivants:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>bien des investissements de centrales \u00e9lectriques au charbon et de diverses usines polluantes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 et sont r\u00e9alis\u00e9s dans les Provinces sans que le gouvernement central soit au courant,<\/li>\n<li>la remise en ordre dans les ann\u00e9es 90 avec la fermeture des usines et des centrales les plus polluantes n&rsquo;a eu qu&rsquo;un effet temporaire sur les \u00e9missions de CO2 (voir la premi\u00e8re courbe);<\/li>\n<li>les provinces c\u00f4ti\u00e8res repr\u00e9sentent 14% de la surface de la Chine et repr\u00e9sentaient 54% des \u00e9missions de CO2 du pays en 2004,<\/li>\n<li>et c&rsquo;est dans ces provinces riches que la population cro\u00eet le plus et o\u00f9 le facteur affluence prend du poids;<\/li>\n<li>entre 1985 et 2004 ce sont les r\u00e9gions les moins d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es qui ont vu les croissances des \u00e9missions les plus fortes (FIG. ci-dessous, courbe en pointill\u00e9s). Ce sont les r\u00e9gions o\u00f9 les usines les plus polluantes sont implant\u00e9es.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/chineprovincesemissionsco2_198520_2.jpg\"><\/a> <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/2008\/11\/01\/chineprovincesemissionsco2_198520_3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"300\" alt=\"Chineprovincesemissionsco2_198520_3\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/chineprovincesemissionsco2_198520_3.jpg\" width=\"422\"  \/><\/a> .<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;La publication du Livre Blanc par les autorit\u00e9s chinoises et la Commission Nationale du D\u00e9veloppement et de la R\u00e9forme (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2008\/10\/les-autorits-ch.html\">LIRE<\/a>)&nbsp; annon\u00e7ant la poursuite de la croissance inexorable des \u00e9missions de CO2 chinoises vient confirmer, au moins qualitativement, les conclusions de cette \u00e9tude.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Pour ceux qui voudraient aller plus au fond dans la compr\u00e9hension de ces donn\u00e9es, vous pouvez lire l&rsquo;excellente publication de ces tr\u00e8s bons Universitaires californiens (<a href=\"http:\/\/repositories.cdlib.org\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=1050&amp;context=are_ucb\">LIRE<\/a>). Bien s\u00fbr c&rsquo;est un peu plus difficile \u00e0 suivre que la limpide propagande chinoise. Alors accrochez-vous!<\/p>\n<p>Le 1er Novembre 2008<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; J&lsquo;avais mentionn\u00e9, lors d&rsquo;un pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent post, une \u00e9tude tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieuse publi\u00e9e en Ao\u00fbt 2007, sur la pr\u00e9vision des \u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine jusqu&rsquo;en 2010 par deux chercheurs am\u00e9ricains Maximilian Hauffhammer et Richard Carson des Universit\u00e9s californiennes de Berkeley et de San Diego. Leur travail part [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":10674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rechauffement-climatique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les \u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine: un sujet trop important pour \u00eatre laiss\u00e9 \u00e0 la seule propagande chinoise - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/11\/01\/les-missions-de-2\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les \u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine: un sujet trop important pour \u00eatre laiss\u00e9 \u00e0 la seule propagande chinoise - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; J&lsquo;avais mentionn\u00e9, lors d&rsquo;un pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent post, une \u00e9tude tr\u00e8s s\u00e9rieuse publi\u00e9e en Ao\u00fbt 2007, sur la pr\u00e9vision des \u00e9missions de CO2 de la Chine jusqu&rsquo;en 2010 par deux chercheurs am\u00e9ricains Maximilian Hauffhammer et Richard Carson des Universit\u00e9s californiennes de Berkeley et de San Diego. 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