{"id":1753,"date":"2008-10-23T07:43:24","date_gmt":"2008-10-23T07:43:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/23\/la-spculation-s-3\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:03:59","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:03:59","slug":"la-spculation-s-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/23\/la-spculation-s-3\/","title":{"rendered":"La sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole int\u00e8gre la baisse actuelle et future des consommations mondiales"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; C&rsquo;\u00e9tait un secret de Polichinelle. Malgr\u00e9 les &quot;pr\u00e9visions&quot; attard\u00e9es des diverses Agences et de l&rsquo;OPEP dont les derni\u00e8res publications pr\u00e9voient encore une croissance des consommations de p\u00e9trole dans le monde en 2008 et 2009, certains vrais &quot;connaisseurs&quot; de ces march\u00e9s commencent \u00e0 parler tout haut, en contradiction avec ce que les Agences officielles racontent. C&rsquo;est le cas de Sadad Al-Husseini ancien patron de l&rsquo;exploration production \u00e0 l&rsquo;Aramco et depuis, devenu consultant aupr\u00e8s de Morgan Stanley. Il annonce que les consommations sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 en&nbsp; forte baisse, en fin 2008, et que cette tendance va se poursuivre en 2009 (FIG.). Elles vont d\u00e9cro\u00eetre jusqu&rsquo;au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2009 pour atteindre 83,5 millions de barils\/jour.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/consomonde200820091.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"384\" alt=\"Consomonde20082009\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/consomonde20082009.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Alors les marchands de papiers adoss\u00e9s aux cours du gaz ou du p\u00e9trole, les m\u00eames qui au mois de Juillet dernier vendaient le peak oil et le p\u00e9trole \u00e0 200$\/baril, annoncent maintenant les 50 dollars comme une \u00e9vidence, le p\u00e9trole coulerait \u00e0 flots, certains \u00e9voquent m\u00eame les 30$. Les m\u00eames exc\u00e8s, les m\u00eames messages d&rsquo;intoxication qu&rsquo;il y a trois mois, mais en sens oppos\u00e9. Jouons maintenant la baisse \u00e0 tout va!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les premi\u00e8res cons\u00e9quences de ces baisses orchestr\u00e9es vont \u00eatre la fermeture de puits de forage am\u00e9ricains&nbsp; qui a d\u00e9j\u00e0 commenc\u00e9 (FIG. II) avec l&rsquo;effondrement des cours du gaz naturel qui se traite \u00e0 moins de 7$ le Million de BTU sur le Nymex. A titre de comparaison il se traite aux environs de 11$ en Grande-Bretagne.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/foragesgaz2008101.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"384\" alt=\"Foragesgaz200810\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/foragesgaz200810.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> Baker Hugues parle de la fermeture probable de 200 puits aux USA. Certains se posent \u00e9galement des questions sur la viabilit\u00e9 de certains forages en Mer du Nord sur les champs britanniques en d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion. <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Mais ce qui va \u00eatre important ce sont les annulations de livraisons de l&rsquo;Arabie Saoudite aux raffineurs dans le monde en p\u00e9riode hivernale. Il se pourrait alors que le p\u00e9trole fasse physiquement d\u00e9faut. En effet le Nigeria ne s&rsquo;est pas subitement mis \u00e0 produire plus, ni le Venezuela. La d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion des gisements continue \u00e0 hauteur annuelle de 4 millions de barils\/jour, les productions de l&rsquo;Alaska baissent tous les mois et les stocks am\u00e9ricains de fuel sont au plus bas pour un d\u00e9but d&rsquo;hiver. <\/p>\n<p>Le 23 Octobre 2008.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; C&rsquo;\u00e9tait un secret de Polichinelle. Malgr\u00e9 les &quot;pr\u00e9visions&quot; attard\u00e9es des diverses Agences et de l&rsquo;OPEP dont les derni\u00e8res publications pr\u00e9voient encore une croissance des consommations de p\u00e9trole dans le monde en 2008 et 2009, certains vrais &quot;connaisseurs&quot; de ces march\u00e9s commencent \u00e0 parler tout haut, en contradiction [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":10577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole int\u00e8gre la baisse actuelle et future des consommations mondiales - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/23\/la-spculation-s-3\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La sp\u00e9culation sur le p\u00e9trole int\u00e8gre la baisse actuelle et future des consommations mondiales - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; C&rsquo;\u00e9tait un secret de Polichinelle. 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