{"id":1839,"date":"2008-10-05T18:10:38","date_gmt":"2008-10-05T18:10:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/05\/deux-projection\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:01:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:01:00","slug":"deux-projection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/05\/deux-projection\/","title":{"rendered":"Deux projections, deux mani\u00e8res de voir l’avenir."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Images_2\"<\/a> Deux mani\u00e8res de voir le monde, deux philosophies<\/a> s’affrontent entre l’AIE (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie) et l’EREC (conseil europ\u00e9en sur les \u00e9nergies renouvelables).
Pour la p\u00e9riode 2003-2005, les deux ont des vus diam\u00e9tralement oppos\u00e9s.
L’une, l’EREC, voit la consommation \u00e9lectrique doubler, mais la part du fossile d\u00e9croitre l\u00e9g\u00e8rement (passant de 11 000 t\u00e9raWatt \u00e0 9 500) pour une consommation globale \u00e9voluant de 16 600 \u00e0 31 000 t\u00e9rawatt.
Dans ce cas, les \u00e9nergies renouvelables repr\u00e9senteraient 70 % de la production (21 500), toutes les \u00e9nergies progresseraient, mais l’\u00e9olien se taillerait la part du lion, le nucl\u00e9aire est vou\u00e9 \u00e0 la disparition.<\/p>\n

Pour l’AIE, la consommation \u00e9lectrique passe de 16 500 t\u00e9raWatt \u00e0 46 000 essentiellement appuy\u00e9e sur le charbon et les fossiles passant de 11 000 \u00e0 36 000, le nucl\u00e9aire stagne (2600 – 2700) et le renouvelable se contente de doubler de taille (3 000 t\u00e9raWatt \u00e0 7500), essentiellement appuy\u00e9 sur l’hydraulique.
On peut donc tirer plusieurs constatations.
Les pr\u00e9visions sont essentiellement celle des lobbys qui agissent sur les uns et les autres.
Ils est fort peu probable que les pr\u00e9visions de l’AIE soient conformes. Il faudrait que les productions charbonni\u00e9res et gazi\u00e8res puissent suivre (multiplier pas 4 dans les deux cas) et celle du p\u00e9trole se maintenir.
Que les industries \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques arrivent \u00e0 ces exploits, c’est tr\u00e8s douteux.
Mais, pour les deux organismes, le sort du nucl\u00e9aire est pli\u00e9 : marginal, il le restera dans le "meilleur" des cas, il disparaitra dans le "pire."
Mais, petit \u00e0 petit, l’AIE \u00e9volue, sous l’emprise du principe de r\u00e9alit\u00e9. Il conc\u00e9de <\/a>d\u00e9sormais que ce sera 50 % en renouvelable.
Sans doute pour chasser sa grande peur : qu’elle diminue.<\/p>\n

Dimanche 5 octobre 2008<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deux mani\u00e8res de voir le monde, deux philosophies s’affrontent entre l’AIE (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie) et l’EREC (conseil europ\u00e9en sur les \u00e9nergies renouvelables). Pour la p\u00e9riode 2003-2005, les deux ont des vus diam\u00e9tralement oppos\u00e9s. L’une, l’EREC, voit la consommation \u00e9lectrique doubler, mais la part du fossile d\u00e9croitre l\u00e9g\u00e8rement (passant de 11 000 t\u00e9raWatt \u00e0 9 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":10395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[679],"class_list":["post-1839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile","tag-il-concede-deux-philosophies"],"yoast_head":"\nDeux projections, deux mani\u00e8res de voir l'avenir. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/05\/deux-projection\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Deux projections, deux mani\u00e8res de voir l'avenir. - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Deux mani\u00e8res de voir le monde, deux philosophies s’affrontent entre l’AIE (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie) et l’EREC (conseil europ\u00e9en sur les \u00e9nergies renouvelables). 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