{"id":1854,"date":"2008-10-03T10:32:42","date_gmt":"2008-10-03T10:32:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/03\/laction-total-r\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T11:00:22","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T11:00:22","slug":"laction-total-r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/03\/laction-total-r\/","title":{"rendered":"Le cours de l’action TOTAL ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 celui d’une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re r\u00e9gionale"},"content":{"rendered":"

               Par des temps o\u00f9 la disponibilit\u00e9 de Cash est argument de p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 pour une entreprise, o\u00f9 les cours du p\u00e9trole sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 90$\/baril assurent une formidable rentabilit\u00e9 aux investissements p\u00e9troliers et o\u00f9 des m\u00e9canismes de cartels, tels que celui de l’OPEP, emp\u00eacheront toute \u00e9ventuelle baisse excessive des cours, on pourrait assurer que notre "champion national" du p\u00e9trole, Total, est une valeur refuge en ces p\u00e9riodes troubl\u00e9es. Or, il n’en est rien. Son cours en dollars \u00e0 Wall Street n’arr\u00eate pas de se d\u00e9grader et \u00e0 perdre du terrain par rapport au benchmark de la profession qu’est Exxon Mobil (FIG.). Le cours de l’action TOTAL se comporte comme celui d’une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale de taille moyenne, sorte de Mid-Cap mal aim\u00e9e du p\u00e9trole.\"Courstotxom200810\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                    A parit\u00e9 avec l’action EXXON durant l’\u00e9t\u00e9 2006, l’action TOTAL vaut 21 dollars de moins un peu plus de deux ans apr\u00e8s. Elles font pourtant le m\u00eame m\u00e9tier, avec des organisations industrielles et des m\u00e9thodes comparables. Quelles explications peut-on alors trouver \u00e0 cette d\u00e9saffection des investisseurs pour notre "champion national"?<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. les arbitrages lui sont d\u00e9favorables: un investisseur sur le secteur des p\u00e9troli\u00e8res  va privil\u00e9gier la taille de l’entreprise (Exxon, RDSA, BP), le dynamisme du march\u00e9 sur lequel l’entreprise est cot\u00e9e (Wall Street ou Londres) et va donc \u00e9viter Total, ENI (Milan) ou Repsol (Madrid).<\/li>\n
  2. la strat\u00e9gie industrielle n’est pas claire: les d\u00e9penses dans les sables bitumineux n’assurent aucune vision d’issue favorable \u00e0 court terme. Plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, la pr\u00e9sence en Am\u00e9rique du Nord de Total est insignifiante et maladroite par m\u00e9connaissance des ressources (ex. les gaz bitumineux locaux qui vont rendre les importations de GNL marginales ou nulles). Le Pr\u00e9sident, C. de Margerie, parle de nucl\u00e9aire mais n’a aucune id\u00e9e de ce qu’il pourrait bien y faire.<\/li>\n
  3. la strat\u00e9gie financi\u00e8re, l’inexistence de recherche d’\u00e9conomies de structures, la vente au plus mauvais moment des actions Sanofi, les menaces de nouvelles taxes gouvernementales, les amendes europ\u00e9ennes pour accords illicites, etc. cr\u00e9ent un climat d\u00e9l\u00e9t\u00e8re autour de la Soci\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                         Cette entreprise a de toute \u00e9vidence besoin d’une strat\u00e9gie plus claire, d’objectifs op\u00e9rationnels plus percutants. Par la recherche d’alliances elle a besoin de faire sauter le cadre boursier trop \u00e9troit dans lequel elle \u00e9volue. Il n’est pas s\u00fbr que le management en place en soit pleinement conscient.<\/p>\n

    Le 3 Octobre 2008.<\/p>\n

    –<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                   Par des temps o\u00f9 la disponibilit\u00e9 de Cash est argument de p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 pour une entreprise, o\u00f9 les cours du p\u00e9trole sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 90$\/baril assurent une formidable rentabilit\u00e9 aux investissements p\u00e9troliers et o\u00f9 des m\u00e9canismes de cartels, tels que celui de l’OPEP, emp\u00eacheront toute \u00e9ventuelle baisse excessive des cours, on pourrait […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":10365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nLe cours de l'action TOTAL ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 celui d'une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re r\u00e9gionale - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/03\/laction-total-r\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Le cours de l'action TOTAL ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 celui d'une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re r\u00e9gionale - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"               Par des temps o\u00f9 la disponibilit\u00e9 de Cash est argument de p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 pour une entreprise, o\u00f9 les cours du p\u00e9trole sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 90$\/baril assurent une formidable rentabilit\u00e9 aux investissements p\u00e9troliers et o\u00f9 des m\u00e9canismes de cartels, tels que celui de l’OPEP, emp\u00eacheront toute \u00e9ventuelle baisse excessive des cours, on pourrait […]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/courstotxom200810.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/03\/laction-total-r\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/10\/03\/laction-total-r\/\",\"name\":\"Le cours de l'action TOTAL ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 celui d'une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re r\u00e9gionale - 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