{"id":2087,"date":"2008-08-16T10:38:06","date_gmt":"2008-08-16T10:38:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/08\/16\/le-ralentisse-1\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:52:47","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:52:47","slug":"le-ralentisse-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/08\/16\/le-ralentisse-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Le ralentissement de l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique en Europe ne date pas du trimestre dernier"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">L<\/span><\/strong>es opinions sur la bonne tenue de la sant\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l&rsquo;Europe se sont invers\u00e9es en quelques semaines. Souvenons nous du d\u00e9but du mois de Juillet et du curieux rel\u00e8vement des taux de refinancement de la BCE de 25 points de base, \u00e0 4,25%, de l&rsquo;euro chatouillant les 1,60 dollars le 14 Juillet, de la Bank of England pr\u00e8te elle aussi \u00e0 relever ses taux. Et puis en trois ou quatre semaines on a assist\u00e9 \u00e0 une formidable inversion d&rsquo;opinions, effet laser \u00e9conomique, retour aux donn\u00e9es fondamentales. L&rsquo;euro se d\u00e9pr\u00e9cie de 8% par rapport au dollar en 4 semaines, la Livre sterling fait pire encore puisqu&rsquo;elle a baiss\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 l&rsquo;euro, le taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat du 10 ans allemand baisse de 50 points, de 4.66% \u00e0 4.17% . Et pourtant en regardant les courbes du PIB des grands pays europ\u00e9ens, en glissement sur quatre trimestres, on s&rsquo;aper\u00e7oit que ce mauvais deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2008 s&rsquo;inscrit dans la continuit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents (FIG.).<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/pib2008t2_21.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"385\" alt=\"Pib2008t2_2\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/pib2008t2_2.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/2008\/08\/16\/pib2008t2.jpg\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;  L&rsquo;Espagne tout d&rsquo;abord (courbe rouge), en d\u00e9croissance depuis un an, soutenue \u00e0 bouts de bras par des d\u00e9penses des administrations tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9es, mais dont l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 et la consommation des m\u00e9nages s&rsquo;affaissent. La Grande-Bretagne (courbe parme) dont l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie souffre de la crise bancaire, d&rsquo;une inflation galopante des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie (gaz et charbon) et d&rsquo;une baisse du tourisme. L&rsquo;Italie (courbe verte) qui avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 chut\u00e9 au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de l&rsquo;an dernier et affiche un z\u00e9ro point\u00e9. La France (courbe bleue) dont l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 languissante traduit sa perte de comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 industrielle, aggrav\u00e9e par un euro sur\u00e9valu\u00e9 qui d\u00e9courage tout nouvel investissement de capacit\u00e9 de production sur notre sol. L&rsquo;Allemagne enfin (courbe noire) dont l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique est lamin\u00e9e par une progression du niveau de consommation des m\u00e9nages tr\u00e8s faible et m\u00eame parfois en retrait, comme au quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2007.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Ce tableau de l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique europ\u00e9enne n&rsquo;a donc rien de r\u00e9jouissant et les chiffres du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2008 ne sont pas un accident, ils sont dans la continuit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. L&rsquo;association d&rsquo;un euro sur\u00e9valu\u00e9, d&rsquo;un accroissement fou des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie et des &quot;commodities&quot;, refuges des liquidit\u00e9s errantes lib\u00e9r\u00e9es par la crise bancaire, et l&rsquo;absence d&rsquo;une politique \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9enne coh\u00e9rente ont eu raison de la progression de l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique en Europe. Cependant, dans les mois \u00e0 venir, une baisse des cours de l&rsquo;euro et des cours de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie devraient relancer la machine \u00e9conomique aliment\u00e9e, entre autres, par le retour des p\u00e9tro dollars dans le flux \u00e9conomique sous forme de commandes de biens d&rsquo;\u00e9quipements lourds.<\/p>\n<p>Le 16 Ao\u00fbt 2008.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les opinions sur la bonne tenue de la sant\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l&rsquo;Europe se sont invers\u00e9es en quelques semaines. Souvenons nous du d\u00e9but du mois de Juillet et du curieux rel\u00e8vement des taux de refinancement de la BCE de 25 points de base, \u00e0 4,25%, de l&rsquo;euro chatouillant [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":9869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le ralentissement de l&#039;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique en Europe ne date pas du trimestre dernier - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/08\/16\/le-ralentisse-1\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Le ralentissement de l&#039;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique en Europe ne date pas du trimestre dernier - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les opinions sur la bonne tenue de la sant\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de l&rsquo;Europe se sont invers\u00e9es en quelques semaines. 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