{"id":209,"date":"2011-03-02T08:09:40","date_gmt":"2011-03-02T08:09:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/03\/02\/les-cours-de-lessence-aux-etats-unis-rappellent-des-temps-davant-debacle\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:27:20","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:27:20","slug":"les-cours-de-lessence-aux-etats-unis-rappellent-des-temps-davant-debacle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/03\/02\/les-cours-de-lessence-aux-etats-unis-rappellent-des-temps-davant-debacle\/","title":{"rendered":"Les cours de l&rsquo;essence aux Etats-Unis rappellent des temps d&rsquo;avant d\u00e9b\u00e2cle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Faute, sur le NYMEX, de pouvoir jouer sur les cours d&#039;un WTI englu\u00e9 dans ses stocks&#160; et pr\u00e9sentant une d\u00e9cote de 15$\/baril par rapport au Brent cot\u00e9 \u00e0 Londres, la sp\u00e9culation s&#039;est subitement report\u00e9e cette semaine sur les cours de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York. Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois de F\u00e9vrier les cours de l&#039;essence am\u00e9ricaine \u00e9taient logiquement adoss\u00e9s \u00e0 ceux du Brent, les voila qui prennent les devants, anticipant une future hausse du p\u00e9trole et affichant une marge de raffinage de 26$\/baril (FIG.I, courbe rouge). Le gallon de gasoline \u00e0 plus de 3$ sur le NYMEX cela veut dire un cours moyen de l&#039;essence \u00e0 la pompe \u00e0 3.6 ou 3.7 dollars le gallon (pas loin d&#039;un dollar le litre) pour la semaine prochaine.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20147e2ef134f970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Spread-BRENT-WTI\" class=\"asset  asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20147e2ef134f970b\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20147e2ef134f970b-450wi.jpg\" style=\"width: 450px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>C&#039;est un grand pas vers les 4 dollars le gallon qui avaient au printemps 2008, il y a seulement trois ans, fortement perturb\u00e9 l&#039;\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine. Parmi les indicateurs les plus pertinents il faudra suivre l&#039;\u00e9volution du trafic routier am\u00e9ricain qui avait baiss\u00e9 de 2,5% en 2008 ainsi que la proportion des ventes de 4X4 aux Etats-Unis qui sont li\u00e9es aux prix de l&#039;essence \u00e0 la pompe (FIG.II). Au printemps 2008 la proportion de 4X4 dans les ventes mensuelles \u00e9taient tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 42% (courbe rouge). Au mois de F\u00e9vrier les small trucks ont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 51% des ventes unitaires de v\u00e9hicules.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;  <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20147e2ef3e6c970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Ventes-4X4-USA\" class=\"asset  asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20147e2ef3e6c970b\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20147e2ef3e6c970b-450wi.jpg\" style=\"width: 450px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#160;Une minute ou deux de r\u00e9flexion bas\u00e9e sur le fait qu&#039;un mouvement sp\u00e9culatif d&#039;ampleur s&#039;appuie toujours sur des liquidit\u00e9s et une <strong>certitude partag\u00e9e par tous<\/strong>, permet d&#039;avancer que la &quot;certitude&quot; d&#039;une d\u00e9stabilisation les unes apr\u00e8s les autres, des Principaut\u00e9s du Moyen-Orient va remplacer avantageusement la &quot;certitude&quot; du peak-oil de 2008. Cela signifie que la mont\u00e9e des cours du brut et des produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s n&#039;en est qu&#039;\u00e0 ses d\u00e9buts. Les \u00e9conomies mondiales s&#039;\u00e9tant durant la crise pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente &quot;d\u00e9sensibilis\u00e9es&quot; partiellement aux cours du p\u00e9trole, il est possible de raisonnablement pr\u00e9voir, au gr\u00e9 des r\u00e9volutions de palais dans la zone MENA, des cours \u00e0 venir sur le p\u00e9trole europ\u00e9en qui d\u00e9passeront all\u00e8grement les 140$\/baril de l&#039;\u00e9t\u00e9 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Le 2 Mars 2011<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;Faute, sur le NYMEX, de pouvoir jouer sur les cours d&#039;un WTI englu\u00e9 dans ses stocks&#160; et pr\u00e9sentant une d\u00e9cote de 15$\/baril par rapport au Brent cot\u00e9 \u00e0 Londres, la sp\u00e9culation s&#039;est subitement report\u00e9e cette semaine sur les cours de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York. Depuis le d\u00e9but du mois de F\u00e9vrier les cours de l&#039;essence [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":22571,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les cours de l&#039;essence aux Etats-Unis rappellent des temps d&#039;avant d\u00e9b\u00e2cle - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2011\/03\/02\/les-cours-de-lessence-aux-etats-unis-rappellent-des-temps-davant-debacle\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les cours de l&#039;essence aux Etats-Unis rappellent des temps d&#039;avant d\u00e9b\u00e2cle - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;Faute, sur le NYMEX, de pouvoir jouer sur les cours d&#039;un WTI englu\u00e9 dans ses stocks&#160; et pr\u00e9sentant une d\u00e9cote de 15$\/baril par rapport au Brent cot\u00e9 \u00e0 Londres, la sp\u00e9culation s&#039;est subitement report\u00e9e cette semaine sur les cours de l&#039;essence \u00e0 New York. 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