{"id":2099,"date":"2008-08-12T09:13:21","date_gmt":"2008-08-12T09:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/08\/12\/les-cours-du-pt-5\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:05:35","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:05:35","slug":"les-cours-du-pt-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/08\/12\/les-cours-du-pt-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Les cours du p\u00e9trole rejoignent leur niveau de tendance longue qu&rsquo;ils n&rsquo;auraient jamais d\u00fb quitter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">L<\/span><\/strong>es cours du baril de p\u00e9trole ne &quot;s&rsquo;effritent&quot; pas comme l&rsquo;annoncent les divers m\u00e9dias. Ils rejoignent des cours plus r\u00e9alistes apr\u00e8s un moment de folie des march\u00e9s aiguillonn\u00e9s par des pr\u00e9visions farfelues de soi-disant experts en \u00e9nergies (trop proches des banques \u00e9mettrices de papiers sur les &quot;futures&quot; pour \u00eatre totalement objectifs) et aliment\u00e9s par les liquidit\u00e9s errantes issues&nbsp; de la crise des &quot;subprimes&quot;. Cette pouss\u00e9e de fi\u00e8vre aura permis au March\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole de comprendre (esp\u00e9rons-le!) un certain nombre d&rsquo;\u00e9vidences:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>la soi-disant non \u00e9lasticit\u00e9 de la consommation aux cours du brut a ses limites. Le comportement thixotropique (<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/la-viscosit-de.html_.png\">LIRE<\/a>) de la consommation a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9montr\u00e9. Une pression <u>continue<\/u> des prix arrive \u00e0 la faire d\u00e9cro\u00eetre, cons\u00e9quence de modifications des choix et des modes de vie des consommateurs;<\/li>\n<li>la financiarisation du march\u00e9 de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie est un amplificateur redoutable des tendances, \u00e0 la hausse comme \u00e0 la baisse: les 145$\/baril du mois de Juillet dernier sont aussi ridicules que les 50$\/baril de Janvier 2007 (FIG.);<\/li>\n<li>le p\u00e9trole trouvera ses \u00e9nergies de substitution. Il n&rsquo;est pas la seule source d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie pour les moyens de transport. L&rsquo;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 est appel\u00e9e \u00e0 se substituer partiellement \u00e0 son utilisation au travers de v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques (hybrides ou non hybrides) plus l\u00e9gers et plus \u00e9conomes. Le gaz naturel comprim\u00e9 peut \u00eatre une alternative pour certaines flottes de v\u00e9hicules (camions, bus, taxis, etc.). Les biocarburants qui repr\u00e9sentent d\u00e9j\u00e0 1 million de barils\/jour apportent une contribution significative \u00e0 la demande mondiale en essence et gasoil.<\/li>\n<li>il n&rsquo;est pas vrai que le March\u00e9 est d\u00e9termin\u00e9 par les besoins exclusifs de la Chine, de l&rsquo;Inde et du Moyen-Orient. Les baisses de consommation des pays riches de l&rsquo;OCDE et de leur milliard d&rsquo;habitants peuvent \u00e9quilibrer la demande pendant les 15 ans \u00e0 venir (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2008\/07\/stabilisation-o.html\">LIRE<\/a>). Il n&rsquo;est donc pas vrai que la demande de p\u00e9trole dans le monde est condamn\u00e9e \u00e0 cro\u00eetre au del\u00e0 de 2008.<\/li>\n<li>l&rsquo;OPEP peut \u00eatre durablement le fournisseur principal du March\u00e9 mondial du p\u00e9trole brut, aid\u00e9 par l&rsquo;aptitude croissante des raffineries, \u00e9quip\u00e9es de conversion profonde, \u00e0 utiliser des p\u00e9troles lourds et soufr\u00e9s<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>. <a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/2008\/08\/11\/wti200808.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"334\" alt=\"Wti200808\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/wti200808.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Le 12 Ao\u00fbt 2008.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les cours du baril de p\u00e9trole ne &quot;s&rsquo;effritent&quot; pas comme l&rsquo;annoncent les divers m\u00e9dias. Ils rejoignent des cours plus r\u00e9alistes apr\u00e8s un moment de folie des march\u00e9s aiguillonn\u00e9s par des pr\u00e9visions farfelues de soi-disant experts en \u00e9nergies (trop proches des banques \u00e9mettrices de papiers sur les &quot;futures&quot; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":9843,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les cours du p\u00e9trole rejoignent leur niveau de tendance longue qu&#039;ils n&#039;auraient jamais d\u00fb quitter - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/08\/12\/les-cours-du-pt-5\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les cours du p\u00e9trole rejoignent leur niveau de tendance longue qu&#039;ils n&#039;auraient jamais d\u00fb quitter - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les cours du baril de p\u00e9trole ne &quot;s&rsquo;effritent&quot; pas comme l&rsquo;annoncent les divers m\u00e9dias. 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