{"id":2205,"date":"2008-07-24T09:29:34","date_gmt":"2008-07-24T09:29:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/07\/24\/commission-denq\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:49:40","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:49:40","slug":"commission-denq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/07\/24\/commission-denq\/","title":{"rendered":"Commission d’enqu\u00eate: l’accroissement des \u00e9changes sur le NYMEX et celui des prix du p\u00e9trole serait une co\u00efncidence!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Nymexmai2008\"<\/a>                             La Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chef de file d’une Task Force Inter agences en charge d’enqu\u00eater sur les causes r\u00e9centes des augmentations des prix du p\u00e9trole vient de publier un rapport interm\u00e9diaire (LIRE<\/a>). Ses conclusions sont simples: il n’y pas eu sp\u00e9culation, le March\u00e9 a bien fonctionn\u00e9. Il n’y a eu "qu’une robuste augmentation des activit\u00e9s d’\u00e9changes de futures qui s’est essentiellement produite durant la phase de mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole brut." Cela appara\u00eet comme une co\u00efncidence, un hasard du calendrier. En fait pour un \u00e9conomiste lib\u00e9ral cette sur r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s (over shooting) est un \u00e9v\u00e8nement normal qui envoie un signal d’alerte fort au March\u00e9. Il faut reconna\u00eetre que cela a bien \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas. L’annonce r\u00e9cente du d\u00e9p\u00f4t de bilan d’une compagnie de trading de l’Oklahoma, la SemGroup, qui a jou\u00e9 la baisse sur des positions courtes alors que le brut s’envolait, montre qu’effectivement certains ont jou\u00e9 le march\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole \u00e0 contre temps.<\/p>\n

                     Mais la CFTC pourrait poursuivre ses investigations sur l’analyse des causes de cet engouement. Elle mentionne la croissance de la demande mondiale en p\u00e9trole, la relative stagnation de l’offre en particulier des pays NON OPEP, la baisse du dollar par rapport aux autres monnaies, les tensions politiques … mais elle oublie de mentionner les multiples interventions publiques, sous formes de pr\u00e9visions argument\u00e9es, d’acteurs sur ce march\u00e9 comme Morgan Stanley qui annon\u00e7ait le baril \u00e0 150$ pour le mois d’Ao\u00fbt ou JP Morgan qui le pr\u00e9disait \u00e0 200$ pour la fin de l’ann\u00e9e, elle n\u00e9glige \u00e9galement le r\u00f4le toujours n\u00e9faste des pr\u00e9visions d\u00e9lirantes de l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie (LIRE<\/a>). <\/p>\n

                   La question que pourrait se poser cette commission est la suivante: de quel droit des banques qui op\u00e8rent sur ces march\u00e9s peuvent avoir des analystes, th\u00e9oriquement ind\u00e9pendants, qui par leurs annonces orientent ces march\u00e9s tr\u00e8s \u00e9troits<\/u> \u00e0 la hausse ou \u00e0 la baisse. L’autre question subsidiaire \u00e9tant: est-ce bien le r\u00f4le de l’AIE de faire des pronostics faux, pour exercer on ne sait quelle pression sur les membres de l’OPEP, afin qu’ils produisent plus et qui se r\u00e9v\u00e8lent \u00eatre de formidables instruments de distorsion du march\u00e9. <\/p>\n

Le 24 Juillet 2008.<\/p>\n

–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                             La Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chef de file d’une Task Force Inter agences en charge d’enqu\u00eater sur les causes r\u00e9centes des augmentations des prix du p\u00e9trole vient de publier un rapport interm\u00e9diaire (LIRE). Ses conclusions sont simples: il n’y pas eu sp\u00e9culation, le March\u00e9 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":9626,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nCommission d'enqu\u00eate: l'accroissement des \u00e9changes sur le NYMEX et celui des prix du p\u00e9trole serait une co\u00efncidence! - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/07\/24\/commission-denq\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Commission d'enqu\u00eate: l'accroissement des \u00e9changes sur le NYMEX et celui des prix du p\u00e9trole serait une co\u00efncidence! - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                             La Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chef de file d’une Task Force Inter agences en charge d’enqu\u00eater sur les causes r\u00e9centes des augmentations des prix du p\u00e9trole vient de publier un rapport interm\u00e9diaire (LIRE). 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