{"id":23476,"date":"2012-07-29T06:40:32","date_gmt":"2012-07-29T06:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?p=23476"},"modified":"2012-07-29T06:55:23","modified_gmt":"2012-07-29T06:55:23","slug":"23476","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2012\/07\/29\/23476\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole papier est toujours une couverture privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e vis \u00e0 vis d’une baisse du dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les cours du p\u00e9trole, malgr\u00e9 une conjoncture internationale agit\u00e9e par de vifs conflits au proche-orient (Syrie voisine d’Isra\u00ebl), restent pour l’instant relativement mod\u00e9r\u00e9s. Ce calme momentan\u00e9 (qui ne saurait durer) est \u00e0 cr\u00e9diter \u00e0 la faiblesse de l’euro qui conf\u00e8re au dollar un statut de monnaie de refuge et attire vers lui les liquidit\u00e9s du moment aux d\u00e9pens des cours p\u00e9troliers. Mais cet \u00e9tat d’\u00e9quilibre pr\u00e9caire n’enl\u00e8ve rien au r\u00f4le majeur du p\u00e9trole, refuge financier appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 de par sa taille et sa liquidit\u00e9, en cas de d\u00e9valuation du dollar. Il y a belle lurette que les cours du p\u00e9trole n’ob\u00e9issent plus \u00e0 l’offre et \u00e0 la demande mondiale, mais que des r\u00e8gles plus complexes, relevant des \u00e9quations\u00a0 de la th\u00e9orie des jeux, agissent sur les points d’\u00e9quilibres de ses cours r\u00e9gionaux.<\/p>\n

Il est possible d’illustrer ce propos \u00e0 l’aide des variations des cours du Brent (Benchmark des prix mondiaux du moment) durant ces derni\u00e8res heures.(FIG. issues de l’ICE)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Une d\u00e9claration du patron de la BCE \u00e9non\u00e7ant sa volont\u00e9 de tenir \u00e0 bouts de bras l’euro \u00e0 tout prix fait imm\u00e9diatement baisser le dollar (dont l’USDX, panier de monnaies contre dollar cot\u00e9 sur l’ICE \u00e0 Londres) et transf\u00e9rer les liquidit\u00e9s vers le p\u00e9trole papier. Ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de balance synchrone bien des fois observ\u00e9 qui illustre le r\u00f4le financier du march\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n

Un affaiblissement du dollar entra\u00eene m\u00e9caniquement et de fa\u00e7on instantan\u00e9e une revalorisation des cours du p\u00e9trole mondial. Les difficult\u00e9s actuelles d’une Europe divis\u00e9e, affermissant le dollar, participent \u00e0 la stabilisation des cours du Brent. Le jour ou l’Europe ira mieux, le Brent rejoindra les 120 $\/baril. Le jour o\u00f9 l\u2019\u00c9tat d’Isra\u00ebl exc\u00e9d\u00e9 par les cur\u00e9s chiites iraniens, lancera un offensive p\u00e9taradante sur les usines d\u2019enrichissement d’Uranium 255 iraniennes, les cours du Brent franchiront alors all\u00e8grement les 150 dollars le baril et plus si affinit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Bien des sc\u00e9narios de valorisation du p\u00e9trole sont possibles et des acteurs rationnels ne peuvent s’emp\u00eacher de jouer par anticipation ces \u00e9ventuels emballements sur un march\u00e9 tr\u00e8s sensible… pour juste apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections am\u00e9ricaines.<\/p>\n

Il faudra alors \u00e0 la France, quels que soient les affinit\u00e9s politiques de ceux qui la dirigent, alors fortement abaisser ses importations de gaz naturel et de p\u00e9trole. L’absurdit\u00e9 et l’inefficacit\u00e9 des soi-disant solutions \u00e9cologiques du moment appara\u00eetront alors au grand jour.<\/p>\n

A suivre!<\/p>\n

Le 26 Juillet 2012<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les cours du p\u00e9trole, malgr\u00e9 une conjoncture internationale agit\u00e9e par de vifs conflits au proche-orient (Syrie voisine d’Isra\u00ebl), restent pour l’instant relativement mod\u00e9r\u00e9s. Ce calme momentan\u00e9 (qui ne saurait durer) est \u00e0 cr\u00e9diter \u00e0 la faiblesse de l’euro qui conf\u00e8re au dollar un statut de monnaie de refuge et attire vers lui les liquidit\u00e9s du […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"\nLe p\u00e9trole papier est toujours une couverture privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e vis \u00e0 vis d'une baisse du dollar - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2012\/07\/29\/23476\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Le p\u00e9trole papier est toujours une couverture privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e vis \u00e0 vis d'une baisse du dollar - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Les cours du p\u00e9trole, malgr\u00e9 une conjoncture internationale agit\u00e9e par de vifs conflits au proche-orient (Syrie voisine d’Isra\u00ebl), restent pour l’instant relativement mod\u00e9r\u00e9s. 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