{"id":23920,"date":"2013-06-27T09:45:14","date_gmt":"2013-06-27T09:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?p=23920"},"modified":"2013-07-13T14:28:02","modified_gmt":"2013-07-13T14:28:02","slug":"etats-unis-un-parc-autour-des-250-millions-de-vehicules-a-prevoir-pour-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2013\/06\/27\/etats-unis-un-parc-autour-des-250-millions-de-vehicules-a-prevoir-pour-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Etats-Unis: un parc autour des 250 millions de v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir pour 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

La consommation d’un pays, par le transport routier, de carburants issus du raffinage du p\u00e9trole\u00a0 d\u00e9pend<\/p>\n

– de l’ampleur du parc de v\u00e9hicules, hors \u00e9lectriques bien-s\u00fbr,<\/p>\n

– du trajet moyen de ces v\u00e9hicules durant la p\u00e9riode consid\u00e9r\u00e9e,<\/p>\n

– de la consommation nominale moyenne de ce parc,<\/p>\n

-de l’\u00e9tat du r\u00e9seau routier et de la r\u00e8glementation routi\u00e8re en vigueur,<\/p>\n

– de la part de biocarburants dans les carburants distribu\u00e9s \u00e0 la pompe.<\/p>\n

La variation du parc automobile constitue un param\u00e8tre d\u00e9terminant pour \u00e9valuer la progression des consommations de carburants.<\/p>\n

Ce parc \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle du monde croit. Cette croissance annuelle tir\u00e9e par l’Asie<\/a> d\u00e9pend des mises sur le march\u00e9 de nouveaux v\u00e9hicules et de fa\u00e7on n\u00e9gative des mises \u00e0 la casse des v\u00e9hicules hors d’\u00e2ge.<\/p>\n

Remarque: l’exportation de vieux v\u00e9hicules vers les pays en d\u00e9veloppement participe donc au maintien du bilan global.<\/p>\n

Dans ce domaine, Michael Sivak de l’Universit\u00e9 du Michigan (UMTRI) vient de publier un papier sur le parc automobile am\u00e9ricain<\/a> intitul\u00e9: \u00ab\u00a0Has motorization in the US peaked?\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Il rapproche en particulier dans cet article l’\u00e9volution du parc automobile au cours des ann\u00e9es et celle de la population US (individus, m\u00e9nages, conducteurs). Il en conclut que le parc auto am\u00e9ricain, malgr\u00e9 un passage \u00e0 vide en 2009-2010 qui a enregistr\u00e9 une d\u00e9croissance totale de 6 millions de v\u00e9hicules, va poursuivre sa croissance apr\u00e8s une progression de 3,4 millions de v\u00e9hicules en 2011, ann\u00e9e pour laquelle le parc a atteint 234 millions d’unit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

J’ai r\u00e9alis\u00e9 un calcul simple partant des volumes de v\u00e9hicules neufs commercialis\u00e9s en 2012 (14,44 millions) et de ceux attendus en 2013 (autour des 15 millions) et prenant en compte d’une mise au scrap de 13 millions de v\u00e9hicules par an (moyenne de 2007 \u00e0 2011, repr\u00e9sentant 5,5% du parc, soit une vie moyenne de chaque v\u00e9hicule de 19 ans) qui montre que ce parc devrait croitre respectivement de 1,4 million et de 2 millions de v\u00e9hicules en 2012 et 2013 (FIG.I).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A ce rythme l\u00e0, le parc de v\u00e9hicules routiers am\u00e9ricains (hors poids lourds) devrait atteindre les 250 millions d’unit\u00e9s vers 2020.<\/p>\n

En clair, il apparait peu pertinent d’extrapoler aux ann\u00e9es suivantes les baisses de consommations de carburants enregistr\u00e9es en 2010 et 2011 aux Etats-Unis. Les baisses de consommation nominales des v\u00e9hicules neufs ne suffiront pas \u00e0 compenser la croissance pr\u00e9visible du parc automobile. Les prix \u00e0 la pompe des carburants qui agissent sur le trajet moyen d\u00e9termineront pour une part\u00a0 la trajectoire \u00e0 venir de ces consommations.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La consommation d’un pays, par le transport routier, de carburants issus du raffinage du p\u00e9trole\u00a0 d\u00e9pend – de l’ampleur du parc de v\u00e9hicules, hors \u00e9lectriques bien-s\u00fbr, – du trajet moyen de ces v\u00e9hicules durant la p\u00e9riode consid\u00e9r\u00e9e, – de la consommation nominale moyenne de ce parc, -de l’\u00e9tat du r\u00e9seau routier et de la r\u00e8glementation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":23921,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2207],"class_list":["post-23920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile","tag-slider"],"yoast_head":"\nEtats-Unis: un parc autour des 250 millions de v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir pour 2020 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2013\/06\/27\/etats-unis-un-parc-autour-des-250-millions-de-vehicules-a-prevoir-pour-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Etats-Unis: un parc autour des 250 millions de v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir pour 2020 - 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