{"id":26119,"date":"2016-08-21T12:03:34","date_gmt":"2016-08-21T12:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?p=26119"},"modified":"2016-08-21T12:36:30","modified_gmt":"2016-08-21T12:36:30","slug":"iea-des-previsions-approximatives-de-consommations-mondiales-de-produits-petroliers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2016\/08\/21\/iea-des-previsions-approximatives-de-consommations-mondiales-de-produits-petroliers\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA: des pr\u00e9visions approximatives de consommations mondiales de produits p\u00e9troliers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les cours d&rsquo;\u00e9coles ou d&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 vous apprennent que si vous voulez publier des pr\u00e9visions plus ou moins incertaines ou folkloriques, tout en conservant une certaine cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9, il faut souvent les actualiser afin que les modifications apport\u00e9es \u00e0 chaque publication semblent mineures. C&rsquo;est ce que fait l&rsquo;IEA qui publie et modifie tous les mois ses pr\u00e9visions mondiales, \u00e0 l&rsquo;horizon d&rsquo;un an, des consommations de produits p\u00e9troliers dans le monde. Ces chiffres sont largement repris par diverses publications dans le monde et elles influent ainsi, \u00e0 la marge,\u00a0 sur le halo qui entoure les march\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole et de ses d\u00e9riv\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>J&rsquo;ai repris ces estimations r\u00e9alis\u00e9es depuis Juillet 2015 et portant sur les flux moyens de consommations mondiales de produits p\u00e9troliers au cours du troisi\u00e8me trimestre 2016 (FIG.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2016\/08\/IEA-T3-2016-consommations.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-26120\" title=\"IEA-T3-2016-consommations\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2016\/08\/IEA-T3-2016-consommations.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"567\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2016\/08\/IEA-T3-2016-consommations.jpg 567w, https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2016\/08\/IEA-T3-2016-consommations-300x296.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>En Juillet 2015 l&rsquo;IEA pr\u00e9voyait pour ce T3 2016, des consommations moyennes inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 95,6 Millions de barils par jour, en ce mois d&rsquo;Ao\u00fbt 2016, en plein trimestre, apr\u00e8s de nombreuses actualisations l&rsquo;estimation de consommation ressort tr\u00e8s proche des 97 millions de barils par jour. A posteriori il est possible de se poser des questions sur la pertinence des pr\u00e9visions r\u00e9alis\u00e9es un an plus t\u00f4t et de leur impact sur les prix.<\/p>\n<p>Cette sous-estimation des volumes consomm\u00e9s de produits p\u00e9troliers dans le monde, participe \u00e0 la faiblesse des cours, alors que ces volumes n&rsquo;ont cess\u00e9 de croitre, ann\u00e9e apr\u00e8s ann\u00e9e, en raison de la croissance d\u00e9mographique et \u00e9conomique du monde, en particulier en Asie. L&rsquo;Arabie Saoudite a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 d&rsquo;excellents volumes livr\u00e9s durant le mois de Juin.<\/p>\n<p>C&rsquo;est le monde des transports (terre, air, mer) des hommes et des marchandises, li\u00e9 aux \u00e9changes, qui tire en particulier cette demande soutenue en carburants. Cette tendance devrait se poursuivre durant les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n<p>Le 21 Ao\u00fbt 2016<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les cours d&rsquo;\u00e9coles ou d&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 vous apprennent que si vous voulez publier des pr\u00e9visions plus ou moins incertaines ou folkloriques, tout en conservant une certaine cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9, il faut souvent les actualiser afin que les modifications apport\u00e9es \u00e0 chaque publication semblent mineures. C&rsquo;est ce que fait l&rsquo;IEA qui publie et modifie tous les mois ses pr\u00e9visions [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>IEA: des pr\u00e9visions approximatives de consommations mondiales de produits p\u00e9troliers - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2016\/08\/21\/iea-des-previsions-approximatives-de-consommations-mondiales-de-produits-petroliers\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"IEA: des pr\u00e9visions approximatives de consommations mondiales de produits p\u00e9troliers - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Les cours d&rsquo;\u00e9coles ou d&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 vous apprennent que si vous voulez publier des pr\u00e9visions plus ou moins incertaines ou folkloriques, tout en conservant une certaine cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9, il faut souvent les actualiser afin que les modifications apport\u00e9es \u00e0 chaque publication semblent mineures. 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