{"id":26355,"date":"2016-12-05T15:37:21","date_gmt":"2016-12-05T15:37:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?p=26355"},"modified":"2016-12-05T15:37:21","modified_gmt":"2016-12-05T15:37:21","slug":"une-revision-a-la-baisse-du-rechauffement-annonce-au-profit-de-la-variabilite-des-aleas-naturels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2016\/12\/05\/une-revision-a-la-baisse-du-rechauffement-annonce-au-profit-de-la-variabilite-des-aleas-naturels\/","title":{"rendered":"Une r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la baisse du r\u00e9chauffement annonc\u00e9, au profit de la variabilit\u00e9 des al\u00e9as naturels"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Knutson, Zhang et Horowitz climatologues de la tr\u00e8s orthodoxe NOAA am\u00e9ricaine, pris de remords d&rsquo;avoir trop gal\u00e9j\u00e9 auparavant, sentant, peut-\u00eatre, l&rsquo;imp\u00e9rieuse n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de tourner discr\u00e8tement leur veste climatique et forts des derni\u00e8res mesures globales de temp\u00e9ratures depuis le d\u00e9but du si\u00e8cle qui, avec une pente de\u00a0 0,1\u00b0F par d\u00e9cennie,n&rsquo;\u00e9voluent pas conform\u00e9ment au mod\u00e8le climatique moyen qui pr\u00e9voyait le double soit 0,2\u00b0F par d\u00e9cennie (FIG.I, en haut \u00e0 droite).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2016\/12\/Global-mean-surface-temperature-CMIP5-et-observations.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-26356\" title=\"Global mean surface temperature CMIP5 et observations\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2016\/12\/Global-mean-surface-temperature-CMIP5-et-observations.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"510\" height=\"340\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Les auteurs surpris par cette d\u00e9rive confirm\u00e9e du climat vers de moins catastrophiques enfers climatiques invoquent le r\u00f4le de la variabilit\u00e9 des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes internes climatiques qui aurait conduit, lors de la derni\u00e8re partie du si\u00e8cle pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9laboration de mod\u00e8les trop pessimistes sur le long terme. On est en pleine science climatique d&rsquo;opinion ou d&rsquo;intuition&#8230;il semblerait que cette tendance pourrait se poursuivre durant une ou deux d\u00e9cennies. Mais allez savoir?<\/p>\n<p>Pour rester \u00ab\u00a0branch\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb sur les derni\u00e8res approches climatiques <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ncomms13676\" target=\"_blank\">il vous faut lire, dans Nature, ce papier. <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Un grand pas g\u00e9n\u00e9ral vers plus de scepticisme vis-\u00e0-vis des \u00e9volutions climatiques impr\u00e9cises annonc\u00e9es, vers plus de mesure et de sagesse.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00eame les guerres de religion ont, un jour, une fin.<\/p>\n<p>Le 5 D\u00e9cembre 2016<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Knutson, Zhang et Horowitz climatologues de la tr\u00e8s orthodoxe NOAA am\u00e9ricaine, pris de remords d&rsquo;avoir trop gal\u00e9j\u00e9 auparavant, sentant, peut-\u00eatre, l&rsquo;imp\u00e9rieuse n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de tourner discr\u00e8tement leur veste climatique et forts des derni\u00e8res mesures globales de temp\u00e9ratures depuis le d\u00e9but du si\u00e8cle qui, avec une pente de\u00a0 0,1\u00b0F par d\u00e9cennie,n&rsquo;\u00e9voluent pas conform\u00e9ment au mod\u00e8le climatique moyen [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":26356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rechauffement-climatique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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