![\"\"](\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2017\/08\/OICA-parc-mondial.png\" "\\"OICA-parc")
<\/a><\/p>\nPar exemple en 2016 les ventes mondiales de v\u00e9hicules neufs ont atteint, selon l’OICA, les 93,9 millions d’exemplaires, tir\u00e9es par la croissance \u00e9conomique du monde, l’arriv\u00e9e massive d’une classe moyenne asiatique urbanis\u00e9e et disposant d’infrastructures routi\u00e8res modernes. Par contre il est possible d’estimer les mises en d\u00e9chets de v\u00e9hicules autour des 43,6 millions d’exemplaires, ce qui repr\u00e9sente 3,4% des unit\u00e9s du parc de l’ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Ceci correspond \u00e0 une dur\u00e9e de vie moyenne de l’ensemble des v\u00e9hicules (VL, utilitaires et camions)\u00a0 de ce parc proche des 30 ans. La comparaison de ces flux entra\u00eene, en 2016, une croissance du parc mondial de v\u00e9hicules routiers autour des 50 millions d’exemplaires.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nCes donn\u00e9es simples rendent caducs les calculs de baisse des consommations de carburants p\u00e9troliers, issus de pens\u00e9es \u00e9cologiques, modernes et de leur temps, s\u00e9duites par les nouveaux v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques hors de prix de type Tesla. Pour estimer le futur de ces consommations il faut au moins consid\u00e9rer deux variables: les progressions de ventes d’EV et celles de ventes de v\u00e9hicules aliment\u00e9s de carburants p\u00e9troliers. Pour l’instant et pour de nombreuses ann\u00e9es les secondes resteront largement sup\u00e9rieures aux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes.<\/p>\n
Plus tard, il faudra se poser la question des mises en d\u00e9chets pr\u00e9matur\u00e9es des futurs v\u00e9hicules urbains \u00e9lectriques sophistiqu\u00e9s \u00e0 obsolescence rapide et qui ne trouveront pas forc\u00e9ment une deuxi\u00e8me vie d’occasion dans les pays les plus pauvres, priv\u00e9s de puissance \u00e9lectrique. Il sera alors, \u00e9ventuellement, plus judicieux de r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer les mat\u00e9riaux pour batteries.<\/p>\n
En attendant le parc mondial de v\u00e9hicules routiers, selon la courbe de tendance quadratique \u00e9tablie ici, devrait atteindre 1,4 milliard d’exemplaires avant la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Un v\u00e9hicule pour 5 terriens en moyenne.<\/p>\n
Le 30 Ao\u00fbt 2017<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Le parc mondial de v\u00e9hicules routiers, constitu\u00e9 pour sa quasi-totalit\u00e9 de v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 moteurs \u00e0 combustion interne, croit de fa\u00e7on quadratique en fonction du temps (FIG.). Ce r\u00e9sultat provient math\u00e9matiquement de la croissance continue des ventes annuelles de v\u00e9hicules neufs qui alimentent ce parc et qui d\u00e9passent largement les mises en d\u00e9chets de v\u00e9hicules qui […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"\n
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