{"id":2758,"date":"2008-04-09T15:58:12","date_gmt":"2008-04-09T15:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/04\/09\/ladministration-4\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:33:51","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:33:51","slug":"ladministration-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/04\/09\/ladministration-4\/","title":{"rendered":"L’administration am\u00e9ricaine se lance dans les pr\u00e9dictions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/a>\"Eia_new31_2\"<\/a>                    L’Energy Information Administration du Department of Energy am\u00e9ricain doit \u00eatre m\u00e9contente, et on la comprend, des pr\u00e9visions tir\u00e9es du noir de caf\u00e9 par l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie si\u00e9geant \u00e0 Paris. Alors elle a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de se lancer elle aussi, dans les pr\u00e9visions. Elle a sorti les cartes de taraud et voila les r\u00e9sultats. Attention "foxes", attachez vos ceintures!<\/p>\n

                         "Les cours du p\u00e9trole brut WTI qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 de 72.32 $ par baril en 2007 devraient \u00eatre en moyenne de 101$ en 2008 et de 92,50 $ par baril<\/strong> <\/span>(sic) en 2009". Commentaires<\/span>: le 72.32$ est une moyenne entre 50$ en Janvier et 96 $ au 31 D\u00e9cembre 2007. Les 101$ en 2008 seront peut-\u00eatre 95$ ou bien 110$, personne ne le sait. Quand aux ridicules 92$50 ils seront compris entre 80$ et 130$. La pr\u00e9cision de telles pr\u00e9visions ne veut rien dire. <\/p>\n

                          "La consommation moyenne de produits p\u00e9troliers en 2008 va baisser de 210 000 barils par jour". Commentaires:<\/span> cela repr\u00e9sente 1% de la consommation totale. L’EIA compte 100 000 barils de plus d’\u00e9thanol produits et une r\u00e9duction d’autant de la consommation sous l’effet des prix \u00e0 la pompe. Ce ne sera pas la r\u00e9volution, surtout si le gouvernement poursuit sa volont\u00e9 d’accro\u00eetre la r\u00e9serve strat\u00e9gique qui est une quasi consommation pour le march\u00e9. Un petit coup de froid en hiver et tout est faux. Une petite baisse des prix \u00e0 la pompe et tout est encore plus faux. Il faudra mesurer les consommations d’essence de Juillet et Ao\u00fbt pour savoir si les am\u00e9ricains modifient leur mode de vie et leurs types de loisirs.<\/p>\n

                           Les m\u00eames pr\u00e9visions sur les prix du Gaz, "commodity" hautement sp\u00e9culative, sont avanc\u00e9es. Les volumes consomm\u00e9s devraient cro\u00eetre de 1% en 2008 et de 0,8% en 2009… mais \u00e7a d\u00e9pendra du temps et des temp\u00e9ratures.<\/p>\n

                           Ces exercices de style n’ont pas beaucoup de sens et apportent peu au d\u00e9bat \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Il serait plus utile de relever les tendances longues de consommation telles que l’abandon du fuel comme moyen de chauffage au profit du gaz, l’arriv\u00e9e des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques avec transfert de consommation de l’essence vers l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, la baisse de masse et de cylindr\u00e9e des v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 moteur et d’essayer de chiffrer les vitesses de changement de ces divers modes de consommations. Mais ce serait une \u00e9tude prospective plus approfondie et plus analytique. Les constructeurs de voitures am\u00e9ricains doivent en savoir plus que l’EIA sur le sujet.<\/p>\n

Si vous voulez tout de m\u00eame lire ces pr\u00e9visions<\/a>. (en am\u00e9ricain)<\/p>\n

Le 9 Avril 2008<\/p>\n

–<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                    L’Energy Information Administration du Department of Energy am\u00e9ricain doit \u00eatre m\u00e9contente, et on la comprend, des pr\u00e9visions tir\u00e9es du noir de caf\u00e9 par l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie si\u00e9geant \u00e0 Paris. Alors elle a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de se lancer elle aussi, dans les pr\u00e9visions. Elle a sorti les cartes de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":8434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nL'administration am\u00e9ricaine se lance dans les pr\u00e9dictions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/04\/09\/ladministration-4\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L'administration am\u00e9ricaine se lance dans les pr\u00e9dictions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                    L’Energy Information Administration du Department of Energy am\u00e9ricain doit \u00eatre m\u00e9contente, et on la comprend, des pr\u00e9visions tir\u00e9es du noir de caf\u00e9 par l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie si\u00e9geant \u00e0 Paris. 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