{"id":317,"date":"2010-09-15T13:55:40","date_gmt":"2010-09-15T13:55:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/09\/15\/total-la-consommation-mondiale-de-petrole-devrait-croitre-dun-pourcent-par-an-dici-a-2020\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:19:48","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:19:48","slug":"total-la-consommation-mondiale-de-petrole-devrait-croitre-dun-pourcent-par-an-dici-a-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/09\/15\/total-la-consommation-mondiale-de-petrole-devrait-croitre-dun-pourcent-par-an-dici-a-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Total: la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait cro\u00eetre d&rsquo;un pourcent par an d&rsquo;ici \u00e0 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;La sagesse impr\u00e8gnerait-elle les pr\u00e9visions des Compagnies P\u00e9troli\u00e8res Internationales? Si l&#039;on se r\u00e9f\u00e8re aux toutes derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions de Total, il semblerait que la mod\u00e9ration des propos ait pris le dessus. Pour pr\u00e9voir la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole brut et autres condensats \u00e0 l&#039;horizon 2020 par exemple, il est n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 partir d&#039;une hypoth\u00e8se globale de la demande, de d\u00e9falquer de celle-ci les productions de biocarburants et les progr\u00e8s r\u00e9alis\u00e9s dans les rendements de raffinage qui conduisent \u00e0 moins de r\u00e9sidus lourds et \u00e0 plus de carburants liquides gr\u00e2ce aux processus de conversion catalytique profonde aliment\u00e9s par les fonds de barils et autres p\u00e9troles lourds. En d&#039;autres termes les raffineries produiront plus de carburants par incorporation des biocarburants aux essences oxyg\u00e9n\u00e9es et autres gasoils et produiront moins de fractions lourdes br\u00fbl\u00e9es pour la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration d&#039;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 par exemple. Que dit le Groupe Total?&#160; Il part d&#039;une consommation de brut de 83 millions de barils\/jour en 2010 ce qui repr\u00e9sente 85 millions de barils\/jour de consommation finale si l&#039;on ajoute les 2 millions de barils\/jour de biocarburants. Il projette cette consommation de p\u00e9trole brut \u00e0 92 millions de barils\/jour en 2020 (FIG.) soit une croissance de 9 mbl\/jour, \u00e0 laquelle il faut ajouter les progr\u00e8s dans les biocarburants (doublement?) et le raffinage pour conna\u00eetre la consommation finale \u00e0 cette date. <\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20133f43f5e90970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Oil-demand-2010-2020\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20133f43f5e90970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20133f43f5e90970b-450wi.jpg\" style=\"width: 450px\" \/><\/a>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>&#160;Pour Total cette croissance de la demande, m\u00eame l\u00e9g\u00e8re va constituer un facteur de tension suppl\u00e9mentaire qui va se rajouter au ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne naturel de d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion des productions, \u00e9valu\u00e9 annuellement \u00e0 6 millions de baril\/jour, par rapport \u00e0 l&#039;offre potentielle qu&#039;il estime en 2020, gr\u00e2ce aux efforts de l&#039;OPEC, \u00e0 95 mbl\/jour.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;Bien s\u00fbr la r\u00e9alisation ou non de toutes ces pr\u00e9visions d\u00e9pendront de l&#039;\u00e9volution des prix du baril, de la conjoncture \u00e9conomique en particulier en Asie, au Moyen-Orient et sur le continent sud-am\u00e9ricain durant la d\u00e9cennie \u00e0 venir. Une \u00e9valuation lente et continue des prix du p\u00e9trole serait favorable au d\u00e9veloppement des progr\u00e8s dans l&#039;efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique des processus et \u00e0 l&#039;utilisation d&#039;autres ressources d&#039;\u00e9nergies primaires dans le domaine des transports.<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20133f43fca17970b-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Commerce-ext\u00e9r-solde-France\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20133f43fca17970b \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20133f43fca17970b-250wi.jpg\" style=\"width: 230px;margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px\" \/><\/a> &#160; Dans le cas des nombreux pays de l&#039;OCDE qui ne disposent pas de ressources p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, une r\u00e9duction des consommations de p\u00e9trole va s&#039;av\u00e9rer indispensable. Pour ne citer que la France, son d\u00e9ficit du commerce ext\u00e9rieur sur les douze derniers mois, en d\u00e9gradation au mois de Juillet (FIG.II) a atteint 46,6 milliards d&#039;euros. La facture p\u00e9troli\u00e8re (brut, raffin\u00e9s et huiles) repr\u00e9sente \u00e0 elle seule 35 milliards d&#039;euros dans ce bilan. La progression rapide dans la r\u00e9duction des gaspillages de carburants dans les transports est un imp\u00e9ratif pour notre pays.&#160;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.total.com\/MEDIAS\/MEDIAS_INFOS\/3564\/FR\/Total-2010-mid-year-outlook-full-presentation-v1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">CONSULTER<\/a> la pr\u00e9sentation de Total.<\/p>\n<p>Le 15 Septembre 2010.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;La sagesse impr\u00e8gnerait-elle les pr\u00e9visions des Compagnies P\u00e9troli\u00e8res Internationales? Si l&#039;on se r\u00e9f\u00e8re aux toutes derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions de Total, il semblerait que la mod\u00e9ration des propos ait pris le dessus. Pour pr\u00e9voir la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole brut et autres condensats \u00e0 l&#039;horizon 2020 par exemple, il est n\u00e9cessaire \u00e0 partir d&#039;une hypoth\u00e8se globale de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":22210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Total: la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait cro\u00eetre d&#039;un pourcent par an d&#039;ici \u00e0 2020 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/09\/15\/total-la-consommation-mondiale-de-petrole-devrait-croitre-dun-pourcent-par-an-dici-a-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Total: la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole devrait cro\u00eetre d&#039;un pourcent par an d&#039;ici \u00e0 2020 - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;La sagesse impr\u00e8gnerait-elle les pr\u00e9visions des Compagnies P\u00e9troli\u00e8res Internationales? 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