{"id":3181,"date":"2008-01-18T08:55:08","date_gmt":"2008-01-18T08:55:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/01\/18\/irrationnelle-c\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:19:13","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:19:13","slug":"irrationnelle-c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/01\/18\/irrationnelle-c\/","title":{"rendered":"Irrationnelle chute des cours des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/amexoil1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"118\" alt=\"Amexoil\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/amexoil.jpg\" width=\"250\"  \/><\/a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; L&rsquo;indice am\u00e9ricain des cours de Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res cot\u00e9es \u00e0 Wall Street, l&rsquo;Amex Oil Index a perdu pr\u00e8s de 10% en trois jours. Cette chute est \u00e0 comparer \u00e0 la baisse de l&rsquo;indice Dow Jones de 4.3%. Les raisons de ce repli des p\u00e9troli\u00e8res sont diverses, mais elles traduisent sur le fond l&rsquo;aversion du March\u00e9 envers le mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique de certaines de ces Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Quelles sont les raisons de cette d\u00e9fiance?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>La baisse des cours du brut venant d&rsquo;un plus haut historique et donc attendue, soutenue par la visite de G. Bush en Arabie Saoudite, par la prochaine r\u00e9union du Comit\u00e9 des quotas de l&rsquo;OPEP et par le constat que de nombreux nouveaux champs p\u00e9troliers vont \u00eatre lanc\u00e9s en production.<\/li>\n<li>La conviction d&rsquo;un ralentissement de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie aux USA qui limiterait la demande en produits p\u00e9troliers<\/li>\n<li>La d\u00e9gradation des marges de raffinage aux USA, qui s&rsquo;\u00e9tend m\u00eame \u00e0 la C\u00f4te Ouest traditionnellement plus r\u00e9mun\u00e9ratrice.<\/li>\n<li>La d\u00e9gradation du secteur p\u00e9trolier par les Banques comme Cr\u00e9dit Suisse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Certains de ces arguments sont pertinents, d&rsquo;autres le sont moins. La baisse des cours du brut est plut\u00f4t une bonne chose. Des cours entre 80$ et 90$ le baril assurent des revenus importants \u00e0 toute la fili\u00e8re de production de p\u00e9trole brut, mais ils permettent aussi aux purs raffineurs de survivre. En effet la flamb\u00e9e du brut a compl\u00e8tement annihil\u00e9 les marges des raffineurs US. Valero par exemple \u00e0 52$ a perdu 25% de sa valeur depuis D\u00e9cembre o\u00f9 il cotait 70$. Le ralentissement marginal de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie US ne fera pas baisser la consommation des foyers qui continuent \u00e0 se d\u00e9placer, \u00e0 s&rsquo;\u00e9clairer et se chauffer. L&rsquo;industrie lourde \u00e9nergie intensive am\u00e9ricaine n&rsquo;existe plus, elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9localis\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Dans le d\u00e9dale des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res productrices il est donc n\u00e9cessaire de distinguer divers business mod\u00e8les:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>les gros g\u00e9n\u00e9ralistes, amassant du cash et l&rsquo;utilisant de fa\u00e7ons plus ou moins pertinentes (investissements, croissance externe, diversification, rachats d&rsquo;actions, distribution de dividendes) un crit\u00e8re de bonne sant\u00e9 est la croissance des volumes produits qui indique la pertinence et l&rsquo;efficacit\u00e9 des investissements;<\/li>\n<li>les purs raffineurs (Valero, Tesoro, Sunoco, etc.) qui ont une rentabilit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s cyclique. Ils perdent de l&rsquo;argent en ce moment o\u00f9 les cours du brut sont leaders, mais ils peuvent en gagner beaucoup quand les produits raffin\u00e9s tirent les cours. Ces Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sont tr\u00e8s menac\u00e9es par les nouveaux concurrents, p\u00e9troli\u00e8res d&rsquo;Etat qui investissent dans le raffinage et qui&nbsp; importent aux USA les produits raffin\u00e9s, mettant ainsi&nbsp; fin au risque de p\u00e9nurie. L&rsquo;arriv\u00e9e des biocarburants participe \u00e9galement \u00e0 cette d\u00e9tente des march\u00e9s;<\/li>\n<li>les petites et moyennes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res qui sont appel\u00e9es \u00e0 se faire manger par les grosses. La qualit\u00e9 de leurs r\u00e9serves, de leurs droits d&rsquo;exploration et de leurs d\u00e9couvertes est alors d\u00e9terminante pour leur valorisation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les r\u00e9sultats attendus du quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2007 vont permettre au March\u00e9 de s\u00e9lectionner les Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s en croissance dont les cours vont rebondir de celles en d\u00e9clin dont l&rsquo;avenir est beaucoup plus sombre. Nos pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences vont aux p\u00e9troli\u00e8res europ\u00e9ennes comme <a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2008\/01\/bg-group-une-pt.html\">BG Group<\/a> ou <a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2008\/01\/total-publie-de.html\">Total<\/a>. Restez \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9cart des purs raffineurs, sauf si vous avez le go\u00fbt du risque.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; L&rsquo;indice am\u00e9ricain des cours de Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res cot\u00e9es \u00e0 Wall Street, l&rsquo;Amex Oil Index a perdu pr\u00e8s de 10% en trois jours. Cette chute est \u00e0 comparer \u00e0 la baisse de l&rsquo;indice Dow Jones de 4.3%. Les raisons de ce repli des p\u00e9troli\u00e8res sont diverses, mais elles [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":7510,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Irrationnelle chute des cours des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2008\/01\/18\/irrationnelle-c\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Irrationnelle chute des cours des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; L&rsquo;indice am\u00e9ricain des cours de Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res cot\u00e9es \u00e0 Wall Street, l&rsquo;Amex Oil Index a perdu pr\u00e8s de 10% en trois jours. 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