{"id":3292,"date":"2007-12-29T21:22:40","date_gmt":"2007-12-29T21:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/29\/ghawar-le-dclin\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:16:23","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:16:23","slug":"ghawar-le-dclin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/29\/ghawar-le-dclin\/","title":{"rendered":"Ghawar : Le d\u00e9clin ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ghawar3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"145\"  alt=\"Ghawar\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/ghawar1.png\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a>Pour pallier au d\u00e9clin du seul<a href=\"http:\/\/europe.theoildrum.com\/node\/2494\"> gisement de Ghawar<\/a>, qui produit depuis 1948, il faudrait des d\u00e9couvertes bien plus fabuleuses que les mis\u00e9rables faites actuellement, et surtout, des d\u00e9couvertes aussi facilement et ais\u00e9ment exploitable.<br \/>Des chiffres sortent pour Ghawar.<br \/>Ils ne sont pas bons, du tout. Globalement, deux hypoth\u00e8ses de production et de r\u00e9serves.<br \/>L&rsquo;une, la basse parle de 55 milliards de barils d\u00e9j\u00e0 produits, et de 34 restant \u00e0 produire. Le d\u00e9clin serait dans une fourchette allant d&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui \u00e0 2010. Pour l&rsquo;hypoth\u00e9se haute, on parle de 63 milliards de barils produits pour des r\u00e9serves estim\u00e9es \u00e0 43 milliards. Dans ce cas l\u00e0, les probl\u00e8mes commenceraient en 2010 au plus t\u00f4t et 2013 au plus tard. <\/p>\n<p>Champ par champ, on arrive aux r\u00e9sultats suivants :<br \/>North Ain Dar : 1.5 restant pour 12.1 milliards de barils initialement, soit 88 % de d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion,<br \/>South Ain Dar : 1.7 pour 9.7, soit 83 %,<br \/>Shedgum :&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 5.4 pour 11.3 soit 55 %,<br \/>Uthmaniyah :&nbsp; &nbsp;6.5 pour 29.3, soit 78 %,<br \/>Hawiyha :&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 11.1 pour 13.8 soit 19 %,<br \/>Haradh :&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 8.4 pour 14.4 soit 42 %.<br \/>Le plus grand gisement de la plan\u00e8te, le plus commode, celui capable de faire des stop and go pour r\u00e9guler la demande, est de plus en plus, hors d&rsquo;\u00e9tat d&rsquo;agir. Sa commodit\u00e9 de production en faisait le roi des gisements. Aucun n&rsquo;aura sa souplesse. <br \/>Les productions actuelles sont les suivantes :<br \/>NAD :&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 500 000 barils jour,<br \/>SAD :&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 500 000 barils jour,<br \/>shedgum :&nbsp; &nbsp; 1 000 000 barils jour,<br \/>Uthmaniah : 1 500 000 barils jour,<br \/>Haradh&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;:&nbsp; &nbsp; 900 000 barils jour,<br \/>Hawiyah&nbsp; &nbsp; :&nbsp; &nbsp; 600 000 barils jour,<br \/>soit au total 5 000 000 de barils jour. Face \u00e0 ce roi des rois, les d\u00e9couvertes r\u00e9centes \u00e0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2007\/12\/torchons-et-ser.html\"> p\u00e9tahouchnoc<\/a> sont ridicules. Et le reste de la <a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogfinance.com\/2006\/03\/ptrole_arabie_s.html\">production saoudienne<\/a>, de peu de poids.<br \/>Les gisements \u00e9puis\u00e9s de North ain dar, celles du sud, et du g\u00e9ant Uthmaniah, font 2.5 millions de baril jour. Soit bien plus que la plupart des d\u00e9couvertes r\u00e9centes. Et surtout aucune n&rsquo;aura la facilit\u00e9 de production, et tous les pays producteur entendront tirer le meilleur parti de leur r\u00e9serves en d\u00e9clin. <\/p>\n<p>Le r\u00e8gne du p\u00e9trole bon march\u00e9 s&rsquo;ach\u00e8ve, celui du p\u00e9trole cher commence, avec celui des p\u00e9nuries. P\u00e9trole cher veut dire aussi p\u00e9trole couteux (\u00e9nerg\u00e9tiquement aussi) \u00e0 extraire.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pour pallier au d\u00e9clin du seul gisement de Ghawar, qui produit depuis 1948, il faudrait des d\u00e9couvertes bien plus fabuleuses que les mis\u00e9rables faites actuellement, et surtout, des d\u00e9couvertes aussi facilement et ais\u00e9ment exploitable.Des chiffres sortent pour Ghawar.Ils ne sont pas bons, du tout. Globalement, deux hypoth\u00e8ses de production et de r\u00e9serves.L&rsquo;une, la basse parle [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":7270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1253],"class_list":["post-3292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-gisement-de-ghawar-production-saoudienne"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ghawar : Le d\u00e9clin ? - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/29\/ghawar-le-dclin\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Ghawar : Le d\u00e9clin ? - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Pour pallier au d\u00e9clin du seul gisement de Ghawar, qui produit depuis 1948, il faudrait des d\u00e9couvertes bien plus fabuleuses que les mis\u00e9rables faites actuellement, et surtout, des d\u00e9couvertes aussi facilement et ais\u00e9ment exploitable.Des chiffres sortent pour Ghawar.Ils ne sont pas bons, du tout. 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