{"id":3356,"date":"2007-12-16T07:45:27","date_gmt":"2007-12-16T07:45:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/16\/evolution-des-c\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:14:26","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:14:26","slug":"evolution-des-c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/16\/evolution-des-c\/","title":{"rendered":"Evolution des cours du brut aux USA et en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Petrol1\"<\/a>                 L<\/span>e cours du p\u00e9trole WTI \u00e0 91 $ par baril a repris trois dollars  la semaine derni\u00e8re \u00e0 New York, le cours du Brent \u00e0 93$\/bl a gagn\u00e9 cinq dollars \u00e0 Londres.  Ce sursaut inattendu des cours a \u00e9t\u00e9 attribu\u00e9 par les gazettes aux manoeuvres concert\u00e9es des Banques Centrales dans l’injection de liquidit\u00e9s aux banques europ\u00e9ennes et am\u00e9ricaines. C’est un argument peu plausible. Pour ma part j’attribuerais d’avantage ces \u00e9v\u00e8nements aux conditions locales que sont la vague de pluie vergla\u00e7ante<\/a> sur l’Oklahoma du d\u00e9but de semaine qui avait arr\u00eat\u00e9 les pipelines par manque d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et la vague de froid en Europe associ\u00e9e avec des ennuis d’exploitation des champs de la Mer du Nord.<\/p>\n

Que faut-il attendre sur les cours du brut d’ici \u00e0 la fin de l’ann\u00e9e?<\/p>\n

Pour les Etats Unis les conditions \u00e0 court terme sont les suivantes:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques n’annoncent pas de froid anormal sur l’Am\u00e9rique du Nord<\/li>\n
  2. les march\u00e9s \u00e0 terme sont revenus dans une structure de contango, les cours augmentent avec le temps, ce qui devrait inciter les professionnels \u00e0 reconstituer \u00e0 court terme leurs stocks de brut,<\/li>\n
  3. le sentiment de ralentissement de l’\u00e9conomie US avec la mont\u00e9e des prix \u00e0 la pompe est bien pr\u00e9sent dans les esprits,<\/li>\n
  4. les pr\u00e9visions de forte croissance de la consommation mondiale  par l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie sont de plus en plus jug\u00e9es comme fantaisistes.<\/li>\n
  5. la commission des conditions de march\u00e9 de l’OPEP doit se r\u00e9unir le 1er F\u00e9vrier<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Toutes ces donn\u00e9es concourent \u00e0 faire baisser le cours du WTI. Il faudra cependant faire le point sur l’\u00e9tat des stocks qui ont du \u00eatre bouscul\u00e9s par le verglas, en particulier \u00e0 Cushing. Les cours devraient passer en dessous de la sinuso\u00efde de variations \u00e0 moyen terme \"Variat2_2\"<\/a> et donc perdre 5$ par baril environ. On peut constater sur la courbe des variations autour de la droite de r\u00e9gression que l’amplitude cro\u00eet avec le temps. Elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 de 15$\/bl pour Katrina en 2005. Elle a atteint -20$ et +20$\/bl en 2007 pour aucun \u00e9v\u00e8nement r\u00e9ellement marquant<\/u>. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne traduit l’emprise croissante de la sp\u00e9culation. Celle-ci fait l’objet d’une enqu\u00eate officielle de la part du Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain.<\/p>\n

                      Pour ce qui concerne le Brent une pr\u00e9vision est beaucoup plus complexe, les cours d\u00e9pendent des nombreux incidents d’exploitation en Mer du Nord. L’arriv\u00e9e de plus gros volumes de p\u00e9trole africain (Angola) devrait rendre le Brent encore plus marginal dans l’approvisionnement des raffineries europ\u00e9ennes.<\/p>\n

                     A moyen terme la mise en exploitation mondiale de nouvelles ressources<\/a> de p\u00e9trole importantes en 2008 et 2009 (13 \u00e0 14 millions de barils\/jour en deux ans) devrait \u00e9loigner le march\u00e9 du risque de p\u00e9nurie.\"Wiki3\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

    Cette nouvelle donne devrait entra\u00eener une relaxation provisoire des cours qui pourraient revenir sur la droite de corr\u00e9lation \u00e0 l’automne 2008.<\/p>\n

    –<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                     Le cours du p\u00e9trole WTI \u00e0 91 $ par baril a repris trois dollars  la semaine derni\u00e8re \u00e0 New York, le cours du Brent \u00e0 93$\/bl a gagn\u00e9 cinq dollars \u00e0 Londres.  Ce sursaut inattendu des cours a \u00e9t\u00e9 attribu\u00e9 par les gazettes aux manoeuvres concert\u00e9es des Banques Centrales […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":7128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nEvolution des cours du brut aux USA et en Europe - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/16\/evolution-des-c\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Evolution des cours du brut aux USA et en Europe - 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