{"id":3361,"date":"2007-12-15T06:46:36","date_gmt":"2007-12-15T06:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/15\/lagence-interna-7\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:14:19","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:14:19","slug":"lagence-interna-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/15\/lagence-interna-7\/","title":{"rendered":"L’Agence Internationale de l’Energie n’est plus cr\u00e9dible"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"What_is1\"<\/a>                        L’Agence Internationale de l’Energie a, comme chaque mois<\/a>, revu ses chiffres pr\u00e9visionnels de consommation de p\u00e9trole dans le monde. Elle actualise une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse de la consommation de 2007, non significative, de 60000 barils par jour \u00e0 85.7 millions de barils par jour. Mais dans le m\u00eame temps elle actualise \u00e0 la hausse les consommations de 2008 de 115 mille bl\/j, en raison d’une r\u00e9vision des consommations d’Ethane au Moyen-Orient. Elle porte ainsi sa pr\u00e9vision de consommation 2008 \u00e0 87.8 millions bl\/j en croissance de 2,5% par rapport \u00e0 2007<\/u>.<\/p>\n

                          De moins en moins de professionnels consid\u00e8rent ces chiffres comme s\u00e9rieux, ils sont m\u00eame de plus en plus ouvertement critiqu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

                    L’OPEP qui connait bien les demandes du March\u00e9 voit une croissance de la demande 2008 de 1,5% \u00e0 87.1 millions de bl\/j. Cette pr\u00e9vision raisonnable est dans la tendance longue de la croissance annuelle de la demande qui est de 1.3 millions de bl\/j.<\/p>\n

                     Rick Mueller, analyste chez Energy Security Analysis \u00e0 Rotterdam dit tout haut ce que tout le monde pense des chiffres de l’AIE: "L’\u00e9conomie est actuellement d\u00e9prim\u00e9e, ce qui n’est pas bon (bearish) pour la demande. Je pense que nous verrons donc les chiffres de pr\u00e9visions (2008) baisser encore \u00e0 l’exception de ceux de l’AIE qui essaie d’envoyer un message \u00e0 l’OPEP pour qu’elle produise plus."<\/p>\n

                     Encore plus explicite est Michael Lynch, Pr\u00e9sident de Strategic Energy & Economic Research \u00e0 Winchester,Ma. qui d\u00e9clare: "Je ne pense pas que les chiffres de l’AIE doivent \u00eatre pris au s\u00e9rieux. Il est difficile de croire que la demande ne va pas faiblir de fa\u00e7on substantielle avec le ralentissement de l’\u00e9conomie non seulement locale mais aussi europ\u00e9enne."<\/p>\n

                     On va donc assister, dans le courant de 2008, de la part de l’AIE, \u00e0 des r\u00e9visions d\u00e9chirantes de pr\u00e9visions, \u00e0 partir de chiffres "de combat", c’est \u00e0 dire faux. Ces corrections interagiront avec le march\u00e9 pour des montants consid\u00e9rables. Voila l’exemple d’une organisation inutile pour l’OCDE, en doublon avec le Department of Energy am\u00e9ricain et dont la disparition ne serait pas dramatique.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                       L’Agence Internationale de l’Energie a, comme chaque mois, revu ses chiffres pr\u00e9visionnels de consommation de p\u00e9trole dans le monde. Elle actualise une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse de la consommation de 2007, non significative, de 60000 barils par jour \u00e0 85.7 millions de barils par jour. Mais dans le m\u00eame […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":7116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nL'Agence Internationale de l'Energie n'est plus cr\u00e9dible - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/12\/15\/lagence-interna-7\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L'Agence Internationale de l'Energie n'est plus cr\u00e9dible - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                       L’Agence Internationale de l’Energie a, comme chaque mois, revu ses chiffres pr\u00e9visionnels de consommation de p\u00e9trole dans le monde. 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