{"id":3490,"date":"2007-11-22T14:31:40","date_gmt":"2007-11-22T14:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:10:56","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:10:56","slug":"synchronisme-de","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/","title":{"rendered":"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais52.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"206\" alt=\"Lebonfrancais5\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg\" width=\"150\"  \/><\/a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; <span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">L<\/span>es taux longs (10 ans et plus) sont cens\u00e9s anticiper les risque d&rsquo; inflation sur longue p\u00e9riode. Ces risques sont difficilement pr\u00e9visibles, mais li\u00e9s \u00e0 la bonne gestion et \u00e0 l&rsquo;orthodoxie des Banques Centrales et des Etats. C&rsquo;est pour cela qu&rsquo;ils sont, sauf cas d&rsquo;inversion de la courbe des taux, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement sup\u00e9rieurs aux taux courts, par construction plus faciles \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire et fortement administr\u00e9s. Mais les taux longs ob\u00e9issent aussi aux lois des ench\u00e8res publiques: plus la demande est forte et moins il est n\u00e9cessaire d&rsquo;augmenter le taux nominal du &quot;papier&quot;. Or les liquidit\u00e9s vont s&rsquo;investir vers les placement les plus attractifs du tryptique: 1-immobilier ou hypoth\u00e8ques(mortgage), 2-investissement dans le capital non cot\u00e9 ou cot\u00e9 en Bourse, 3-obligations (bonds) ou d\u00e9riv\u00e9s sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, dont le p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Aux USA en ce moment, le march\u00e9 fuit le premier, il se m\u00e9fie du second et donc les liquidit\u00e9s affluent vers le troisi\u00e8me compartiment des bonds et des d\u00e9riv\u00e9s sur les mati\u00e8res et le p\u00e9trole. Malgr\u00e9 la d\u00e9fiance croissante des &quot;<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/les-recettes-pt.html_.png\">fonds souverains<\/a>&quot; envers &quot;le papier&quot; valoris\u00e9 en dollars les &quot;bonds&quot; am\u00e9ricains se vendent sans probl\u00e9me et les taux longs baissent. De 5,3% au mois de Juin, le 10 ans am\u00e9ricain est pass\u00e9 au dessous de 4% hier. En Europe, c&rsquo;est moins sch\u00e9matique, l&rsquo;immobilier est encore attractif, la peur de la menace inflationniste, manipul\u00e9e par la BCE, valorise les taux longs et donc la d\u00e9croissance des taux est moins marqu\u00e9e qu&rsquo;aux USA. Le 10 ans allemand est pass\u00e9 de 4,64% \u00e0 4% durant la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. Cela veut dire que le spread (diff\u00e9rence de taux) entre le 10 ans US et le 10 ans allemand a diminu\u00e9. Il est moins attractif de placer ses liquidit\u00e9s en dollar, le march\u00e9 des changes vend donc du dollar pour acheter du &quot;papier&quot; valoris\u00e9 en euros.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; La FIG. illustre cette variation de spread sur une p\u00e9riode de deux ans, avec une superbe courbe en cloche dont le maximum \u00e0 125 points de base (1,25%) s&rsquo;est prolong\u00e9 sur trois trimestres (T4 2005 et T1, T2 2006).<a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/2007\/11\/22\/spread1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"286\" alt=\"Spread1\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/spread1.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> La valeur du spread&nbsp; influe directement sur la valeur du dollar en euros pour un spread \u00e9lev\u00e9 le dollar valait 0,85 euros, pour un spread nul, comme aujourd&rsquo;hui, il n&rsquo;en vaut plus que 0,70. <\/p>\n<p>Les liquidit\u00e9s vont donc se placer sur les &quot;bonds&quot; am\u00e9ricains et europ\u00e9ens, ce qui fait baisser les taux et donc la valeur du dollar. Elles se placent aussi sur les d\u00e9riv\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole, ressource dont la demande cro\u00eet, dont l&rsquo;offre est mal r\u00e9gul\u00e9e par une OPEP divis\u00e9e et politis\u00e9e, ce qui fait monter les cours du brut. On assiste donc \u00e0&nbsp; plusieurs ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes synchrones tels que la baisse du dollar et la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole qui ne sont que la traduction de la d\u00e9fiance des liquidit\u00e9s devant l&rsquo;immobilier am\u00e9ricain et la Bourse de New-York. Les arbitrages des &quot;fonds souverains&quot; en d\u00e9faveur du dollar accentuent le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les taux longs (10 ans et plus) sont cens\u00e9s anticiper les risque d&rsquo; inflation sur longue p\u00e9riode. Ces risques sont difficilement pr\u00e9visibles, mais li\u00e9s \u00e0 la bonne gestion et \u00e0 l&rsquo;orthodoxie des Banques Centrales et des Etats. C&rsquo;est pour cela qu&rsquo;ils sont, sauf cas d&rsquo;inversion de la courbe des taux, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les taux longs (10 ans et plus) sont cens\u00e9s anticiper les risque d&rsquo; inflation sur longue p\u00e9riode. Ces risques sont difficilement pr\u00e9visibles, mais li\u00e9s \u00e0 la bonne gestion et \u00e0 l&rsquo;orthodoxie des Banques Centrales et des Etats. C&rsquo;est pour cela qu&rsquo;ils sont, sauf cas d&rsquo;inversion de la courbe des taux, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/\",\"name\":\"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2007-11-22T14:31:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-07-12T10:10:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg\",\"width\":\"150\",\"height\":\"206\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\",\"name\":\"leblogenergie\",\"description\":\"Just another The Social Media Group Network site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\",\"name\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com","twitter_description":"&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Les taux longs (10 ans et plus) sont cens\u00e9s anticiper les risque d&rsquo; inflation sur longue p\u00e9riode. Ces risques sont difficilement pr\u00e9visibles, mais li\u00e9s \u00e0 la bonne gestion et \u00e0 l&rsquo;orthodoxie des Banques Centrales et des Etats. C&rsquo;est pour cela qu&rsquo;ils sont, sauf cas d&rsquo;inversion de la courbe des taux, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement [&hellip;]","twitter_image":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Raymond Bonnaterre","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/","name":"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg","datePublished":"2007-11-22T14:31:40+00:00","dateModified":"2012-07-12T10:10:56+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/lebonfrancais5.jpg","width":"150","height":"206"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/22\/synchronisme-de\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Accueil","item":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Synchronisme de la baisse du dollar et de la mont\u00e9e des cours du p\u00e9trole"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/","name":"leblogenergie","description":"Just another The Social Media Group Network site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794","name":"Raymond Bonnaterre","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Raymond Bonnaterre"},"url":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/341"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3490"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14884,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3490\/revisions\/14884"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}