{"id":3539,"date":"2007-11-14T12:11:31","date_gmt":"2007-11-14T12:11:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/14\/les-prvisions-b\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:09:26","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:09:26","slug":"les-prvisions-b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/14\/les-prvisions-b\/","title":{"rendered":"Les pr\u00e9visions \u00ab\u00a0bidons\u00a0\u00bb de l’AIE"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Ensor_lintrigo_part\"<\/a>                 L’Agence Internationale de L’Energie<\/a> a un pouvoir consid\u00e9rable: pouvoir rendre officielles ses<\/u> pr\u00e9visions de consommations de p\u00e9trole 18 mois \u00e0 l’avance, en sachant que ses publications vont interf\u00e9rer sur les cours du brut, sur les cours des Bourses et sur les politiques d’investissements des acteurs du march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier. Sa d\u00e9marche semble \u00eatre analytique, mais apparaissent de temps en temps des corrections importantes qui montrent les d\u00e9faillances de la m\u00e9thode.<\/p>\n

               Je voudrais illustrer et argumenter ici mes propos. <\/p>\n

                 Tout d’abord l’AIE, qui repr\u00e9sente un groupe, l’OCDE, de consommateurs de produits p\u00e9troliers, quand elle d\u00e9marre une s\u00e9rie annuelle part de pr\u00e9visions hautes, ce qui veut dire que, au cours du temps, elle devra, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, ajuster ses chiffres \u00e0 la baisse<\/u>, sauf corrections importantes et inattendues(FIG.).\"Image002\"<\/a> Par exemple en F\u00e9vrier 2007, la s\u00e9rie sur la Chine qui pr\u00e9voyait un stupide 5,3% de croissance de consommation de p\u00e9trole, dans un pays dont le PIB croissait de 10 \u00e0 12%, a \u00e9t\u00e9 revue \u00e0 la hausse de 200 mille barils. Motif: des raffineries avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 oubli\u00e9es. Un autre exemple en Juin 2007<\/u> on a corrig\u00e9 la s\u00e9rie 2006 de 300 mille barils, pour la porter au niveau de la valeur du DOE, alors qu’elle n’avait pas cess\u00e9 de d\u00e9cro\u00eetre pendant l’ann\u00e9e 2006<\/u> on peut alors se poser des questions sur la pertinence des annonces mensuelles de 2006.  Enfin la s\u00e9rie 2008 a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 \u00e0 +2,56% de plus que 2007 (+2,2 mbl\/jour)<\/u>, on est s\u00fbr que \u00e7a ne pourra que baisser, la croissance annuelle se situant en moyenne vers 1,3 millions de barils par jour.<\/p>\n

                 Ce travail, d’un grand amateurisme, ne justifierait pas ces critiques s’il n’avait pas un tr\u00e8s fort impact sur certaines donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques. L’AIE devrait avouer que la faible pr\u00e9cision de ses pr\u00e9visions est incompatible avec des publications mensuelles de ses chiffres. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                 L’Agence Internationale de L’Energie a un pouvoir consid\u00e9rable: pouvoir rendre officielles ses pr\u00e9visions de consommations de p\u00e9trole 18 mois \u00e0 l’avance, en sachant que ses publications vont interf\u00e9rer sur les cours du brut, sur les cours des Bourses et sur les politiques d’investissements des acteurs du march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier. Sa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nLes pr\u00e9visions "bidons" de l'AIE - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/14\/les-prvisions-b\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les pr\u00e9visions "bidons" de l'AIE - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                 L’Agence Internationale de L’Energie a un pouvoir consid\u00e9rable: pouvoir rendre officielles ses pr\u00e9visions de consommations de p\u00e9trole 18 mois \u00e0 l’avance, en sachant que ses publications vont interf\u00e9rer sur les cours du brut, sur les cours des Bourses et sur les politiques d’investissements des acteurs du march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier. 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