{"id":3544,"date":"2007-11-13T14:13:46","date_gmt":"2007-11-13T14:13:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/13\/lagence-interna-8\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:09:20","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:09:20","slug":"lagence-interna-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/13\/lagence-interna-8\/","title":{"rendered":"L’Agence Internationale de l’Energie revoit ses chiffres"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Iea_logo1\"<\/a>                L<\/span>‘AIE qui travaille pour les pays de l’OCDE affiche clairement un biais "consommateur" dans l’analyse des conditions d’offre et de demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole. L’id\u00e9al de son ancien Directeur, parti au mois d’Ao\u00fbt dernier, \u00e9tait un p\u00e9trole dont les cours seraient compris entre 20 et 30$ le baril. Cette conviction d\u00e9pass\u00e9e l’avait pouss\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire des baisses de cours qui ne se sont jamais concr\u00e9tis\u00e9es. L’AIE a donc tendance \u00e0 surestimer les consommations \u00e0 6 ou 12 mois pour inciter les producteurs \u00e0 ouvrir les vannes. Bien s\u00fbr plus l’horizon se rapproche et plus elle est amen\u00e9e revoir les chiffres \u00e0 la baisse.<\/p>\n

C’est ce que vient de faire le nouveau Directeur ce mois-ci.<\/p>\n

                     La consommation de p\u00e9trole mondiale cro\u00eet annuellement de 1,3 millions de barils par jour<\/u> (FIG.).\"Conso1\"<\/a>  Le mois dernier elle pr\u00e9voyait une progression 2007-2006 de 1,4 mbl\/j, elle vient de corriger \u00e0 1,2 mbl\/j \u00e0 85,7 mbl\/j pour 2007. On est pile sur la tendance longue. Donc la consommation ne ralentit pas, ce sont les pr\u00e9visions de l’AIE, un peu fortes, qui sont corrig\u00e9es. La pr\u00e9vision de croissance de 2008-2007 \u00e9tait de 2,1mbl\/j le mois dernier, donc tr\u00e8s forte. Elle est corrig\u00e9e \u00e0 2 mbl\/j, donc toujours tr\u00e8s forte, \u00e0 87,7 mbl\/j en 2008. Il est \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir que l’AIE corrigera \u00e0 la baisse, plus tard, ce chiffre sorti d’un chapeau et que les commentateurs diront na\u00efvement que la consommation diminue.<\/p>\n

                     Ces jeux de chiffres r\u00e9actualis\u00e9s b\u00eatement tous les mois seraient risibles, s’ils n’avaient pas leur malheureuse influence sur les cours de bourse des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res. L’AIE fait doublon avec les statistiques du DOE am\u00e9ricain dont les chiffres \u00e9vitent les pr\u00e9visions fantaisistes. Sa disparition ferait faire des \u00e9conomies aux pays adh\u00e9rents \u00e0 l’OCDE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                L‘AIE qui travaille pour les pays de l’OCDE affiche clairement un biais "consommateur" dans l’analyse des conditions d’offre et de demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole. L’id\u00e9al de son ancien Directeur, parti au mois d’Ao\u00fbt dernier, \u00e9tait un p\u00e9trole dont les cours seraient compris entre 20 et 30$ le baril. Cette […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6718,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nL'Agence Internationale de l'Energie revoit ses chiffres - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/13\/lagence-interna-8\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L'Agence Internationale de l'Energie revoit ses chiffres - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                L‘AIE qui travaille pour les pays de l’OCDE affiche clairement un biais "consommateur" dans l’analyse des conditions d’offre et de demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole. 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