{"id":3586,"date":"2007-11-06T09:29:13","date_gmt":"2007-11-06T09:29:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/06\/energies-primai\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:07:56","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:07:56","slug":"energies-primai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/06\/energies-primai\/","title":{"rendered":"ENERGIES PRIMAIRES: projections am\u00e9ricaines pour 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Exxonbacon\"<\/a>                                                                                <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> Le p\u00e9trolier Exxon-Mobil publie depuis deux ans sa vision en besoins d’\u00e9nergies primaires dans le monde, \u00e0 l’horizon 2030. Il vient de publier son \u00e9dition 2007<\/a> de son document "The Outlook for Energy". Si vous vous pr\u00e9occupez de ces probl\u00e8mes, je vous conseille vivement de lire ce papier. C’est tout d’abord une vision am\u00e9ricaine qui, bien s\u00fbr, ne voit pas de grand chamboulement dans son mode de vie. C’est la vision d’une Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re qui dispose des plus grands sp\u00e9cialistes mondiaux des \u00e9nergies fossiles.<\/p>\n

Mais r\u00e9sumons ce que dit ce rapport et essayons de relever les contradictions ou faiblesses.<\/p>\n

                Exxon voit une croissance mondiale annuelle moyenne en besoin d’\u00e9nergies primaires , entre 2005 et 2030, de 1,3% par an<\/u>. Cette croissance est li\u00e9e \u00e0 l’augmentation moyenne du niveau de vie et \u00e0 l’accroissement de population. La consommation mondiale d’\u00e9nergie primaire passerait de 230 millions de barils \u00e9quivalents p\u00e9trole par jour \u00e0 325 mbl\/j, soit une croissance globale de 40%<\/u>.<\/p>\n

                 Sa d\u00e9composition, selon les quatre secteurs utilis\u00e9s par le DOE am\u00e9ricain, G\u00e9n\u00e9ration d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, Transport, Industrie, R\u00e9sidentiel et Commercial , est r\u00e9sum\u00e9e dans le TABLEAU.\"Image002\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

Le secteur du transport qui consomme le plus de produits p\u00e9troliers est le plus dynamique (+1,7%), suivi par la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (+1,5%).Bien s\u00fbr, c’est la zone NON OCDE qui tire cette consommation mondiale.<\/p>\n

            Par sources d’\u00e9nergies, Exxon met la croissance d’\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire en premier (+2%) suivie de l’extraction de gaz naturel ( 1,7%).<\/p>\n

                    Les \u00e9missions de CO2 dans ce sc\u00e9nario, croissent de 1,2% par an, avec une quasi stabilit\u00e9 dans la zone OCDE et une croissance de 1,9% en zone NON OCDE.<\/p>\n

              Cette vision des 25 ans \u00e0 venir conduirait \u00e0 un accroissement des consommations de p\u00e9trole de 1,2% par an ce qui conduirait \u00e0 l’OPEP de passer sa production de 30 millions de barils par jour \u00e0 47 millions! <\/p>\n

          Et l\u00e0, se posent les questions d’ordre g\u00e9opolitiques: ceci, sera-t-il possible?<\/p>\n

          A vous de r\u00e9pondre et de faire votre propre sc\u00e9nario.<\/p>\n

          Le plus probable sera plus fort en \u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire et en centrales classiques \u00e9quip\u00e9es de CCS (Capture S\u00e9questration de CO2), illustr\u00e9 par Exxon en page 23, qui fait enfin appara\u00eetre une baisse mondiale des \u00e9missions de CO2.<\/p>\n

          La baisse des consommations d’\u00e9nergie par les pays OCDE, dont les Etats-Unis, semble aussi in\u00e9luctable. Ceci supposera des changements profonds dans l"american way of life". Exxon-Mobil ne pouvait pas le dire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                                                                Le p\u00e9trolier Exxon-Mobil publie depuis deux ans sa vision en besoins d’\u00e9nergies primaires dans le monde, \u00e0 l’horizon 2030. Il vient de publier son \u00e9dition 2007 de son […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6624,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"\nENERGIES PRIMAIRES: projections am\u00e9ricaines pour 2030 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/11\/06\/energies-primai\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"ENERGIES PRIMAIRES: projections am\u00e9ricaines pour 2030 - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                                                                                Le p\u00e9trolier Exxon-Mobil publie depuis deux ans sa vision en besoins d’\u00e9nergies primaires dans le monde, \u00e0 l’horizon 2030. 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