{"id":3624,"date":"2007-10-27T08:43:45","date_gmt":"2007-10-27T08:43:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/27\/les-prvisions-d-2\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:06:45","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:06:45","slug":"les-prvisions-d-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/27\/les-prvisions-d-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Les pr\u00e9visions de l’AIEA pour 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Ensor15\"<\/a>                   L’<\/span>Agence Internationale de l’Energie Atomique vient de publier son ni\u00e8me rapport pr\u00e9visionnel, \u00e0 l’horizon 2020, de l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aire dans le monde.<\/p>\n

                Elle manipule deux hypoth\u00e8ses: la premi\u00e8re (H1) fondamentalement antinucl\u00e9aire, sans \u00e9volution notable des mentalit\u00e9s, l’autre (H2) un peu plus traumatis\u00e9e par le r\u00e9chauffement climatique et l’accroissement des prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, devant permettre de lancer quelques programmes. <\/p>\n

                Quels sont les r\u00e9sultats?<\/p>\n

                 Dans le cas de H1 la progression de la puissance \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aire install\u00e9e est de 0,9% par an, dans le cas de H2 elle est de 2,8% par an. <\/p>\n

                  En contrepartie , en raison de l’arriv\u00e9e d’un milliard de plus d’habitants sur terre et de l’augmentation du niveau de vie des plus pauvres qui attendent l’\u00e9lectrification de leur village, la demande d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 augmentera de 1,6% \u00e0 3,3% par an.<\/p>\n

                  Donc la faible croissance de l’\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire a des chances de ne pas suivre la demande globale. Sa part de march\u00e9 mondiale devrait d\u00e9cro\u00eetre, dans le cadre des hypoth\u00e8ses retenues.<\/p>\n

                    Cependant, certains pays vont de toute \u00e9vidence se "nucl\u00e9ariser" citons en par exemple en mentionnant la part d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire dans leur pays \u00e0 fin 2006 : la Chine (1,8%), l’Inde (2,6%), le Pakistan (2,7%), le Br\u00e9sil (3,1%),les Pays-bas (3,5%), le Mexique (4,9%), l’Argentine (6,9%), la Russie (15,9%), le Royaume-Uni (18,4%), les USA (19,4%), l’Espagne (19,8%), le Japon (30%), l’Allemagne (31,4%).<\/p>\n

                 Il est \u00e9vident que certains de ces pays sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 largement engag\u00e9s dans des programmes de rattrapage. A fin 2006 il y avait 29 centrales \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aires en construction dans le monde, dont 7 en Inde, 5 en Russie, 4 en Chine. D’autres ont clairement d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de reprendre leurs programmes de d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aire: les Etats-Unis, Le Royaume-Uni par exemple. Et les derniers, dont l’opinion \u00e9volue sensiblement, traumatis\u00e9e par les rejets croissants de CO2, comme l’Allemagne, qui devrait \u00e0 l’occasion d’un changement de majorit\u00e9, relancer des programmes de centrales de nouvelles g\u00e9n\u00e9rations. Enfin il y a des pays qui n’ont pas d’industrie \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aire et qui d\u00e9sireront l’acqu\u00e9rir. L’actualit\u00e9 nous a d\u00e9sign\u00e9 le Maroc et la Libye. Que fera l’Italie dans les ann\u00e9es qui viennent?<\/p>\n

                 Le nouveau d\u00e9marrage des programmes \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aires n’en est qu’\u00e0 ses d\u00e9buts, son amplification sera la bienvenue pour assurer la fourniture d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 tous dans le monde. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                   L’Agence Internationale de l’Energie Atomique vient de publier son ni\u00e8me rapport pr\u00e9visionnel, \u00e0 l’horizon 2020, de l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9lectronucl\u00e9aire dans le monde.                 Elle manipule deux hypoth\u00e8ses: la premi\u00e8re (H1) fondamentalement antinucl\u00e9aire, sans \u00e9volution notable des mentalit\u00e9s, l’autre (H2) un peu plus traumatis\u00e9e par […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rechauffement-climatique"],"yoast_head":"\nLes pr\u00e9visions de l'AIEA pour 2020 - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/27\/les-prvisions-d-2\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les pr\u00e9visions de l'AIEA pour 2020 - 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