{"id":3633,"date":"2007-10-26T06:11:10","date_gmt":"2007-10-26T06:11:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/26\/les-recettes-pt\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:06:26","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:06:26","slug":"les-recettes-pt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/26\/les-recettes-pt\/","title":{"rendered":"Les recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res alimentent les Fonds Souverains"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Laguerre1925\"<\/a><\/p>\n

               L<\/span>es financiers les plus aguerris estiment que les fonds de certains Etats trop riches, appel\u00e9s "Fonds Souverains", s’\u00e9l\u00e8vent, aujourd’hui, \u00e0 un montant global compris entre 2000 et 2500 milliards de dollars. Ces fonds autrefois plac\u00e9s en obligations ou en hypoth\u00e8ques am\u00e9ricaines ne posaient que peu de probl\u00e8mes. Mais les "US Bonds" et les "Mortgages",  "subprimes" ou non, sont de moins en moins pris\u00e9s par les gestionnaires de ces riches Etats. Alors ces liquidit\u00e9s importantes cherchent \u00e0 se placer sur des actifs \u00e9conomiques diversifi\u00e9s. Les achats d’actions de Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s cot\u00e9es, ou directement de Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non cot\u00e9es, occidentales sont tout particuli\u00e8rement appr\u00e9ci\u00e9s. Bien s\u00fbr, \u00e0 la recherche d’une optimisation financi\u00e8re, se superposent des arri\u00e8res pens\u00e9es politiques ou industrielles. Ces fonds sont parfois les bienvenus mais ils sont aussi craints quand ils s’attaquent \u00e0 des activit\u00e9s strat\u00e9giques. Les l\u00e9gislateurs cherchent donc \u00e0 se pr\u00e9munir de certains raids ou agressions (USA, Allemagne, France). Mais d’o\u00f9 proviennent ces fonds et pourquoi sont-ils en croissance continue?<\/p>\n

Ils existent, tout d’abord, en raison des d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres commerciaux compens\u00e9s par des mouvements de fonds et la cr\u00e9ation de r\u00e9serves de change. Certaines Nations sont en d\u00e9ficit commercial quasi chronique, les USA par exemple, tandis que d’autres pr\u00e9sentent des exc\u00e9dents commerciaux inexorablement croissants, telle la Chine.<\/p>\n

Ils peuvent provenir d’exc\u00e9dents commerciaux tr\u00e8s diversifi\u00e9s comme c’est le cas pour la Chine, de la vente de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res (Australie, Br\u00e9sil, Canada…) ou de la vente de produits p\u00e9troliers (Moyen-Orient, Russie, Canada, Venezuela,…). Les leaders industriels mondiaux de l’extraction p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et gazi\u00e8re sont des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d’Etats. Citons, par exemple, l’ARAMCO (Arabie Saoudite), Gazprom (Russie), la NIOC (Iran), PEMEX (Mexique), PDVSA (Venezuela), StatoilHydro (Norv\u00e8ge), Sonatrach (Alg\u00e9rie), etc. Ils repr\u00e9sentent les deux tiers de la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole et les quatre cinqui\u00e8mes de celle du gaz.<\/p>\n

Ceci repr\u00e9sente des recettes consid\u00e9rables qui, pour un p\u00e9trole vendu \u00e0 75$\/bl, s’\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 plus de 1500 milliards de dollars par an. Pour le gaz, vendu vers les 30$ l’\u00e9quivalent baril, la recette annuelle est estim\u00e9e \u00e0 plus de 400 mds$. On peut donc consid\u00e9rer, compte tenu des cours actuels du p\u00e9trole et du gaz, que les Groupes P\u00e9troliers \u00e9tatis\u00e9s mondiaux r\u00e9alisent une recette globale annuelle de 2000 mds$. <\/p>\n

De cette manne p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, combien va se  retrouver dans les r\u00e9serves financi\u00e8res des Etats producteurs? Tout d\u00e9pend du caract\u00e8re d\u00e9pensier ou \u00e9conome de chacun des Etats concern\u00e9s. Certains, tr\u00e8s peupl\u00e9s, ont besoin de la totalit\u00e9 de ces recettes pour assurer le budget de la Nation (Le Mexique, le Venezuela, l’Alg\u00e9rie, l’Iran), les devises sont aussit\u00f4t recycl\u00e9es. Mais d’autres Etats peu peupl\u00e9s, au pouvoir d’achat \u00e9lev\u00e9, doivent au moins mettre le moiti\u00e9 de ces recettes en r\u00e9serves (Arabie, Qatar, Kowe\u00eft, Duba\u00ef, Brunei, etc.) On peut donc estimer que 15% \u00e0 20% de ces recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, soit 300 \u00e0 400 mds$, seront d\u00e9vers\u00e9s dans les Fonds Souverains cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Ils s’ajouteront aux 300 ou 400 mds$ chinois qui vont s’investir, cette ann\u00e9e, dans la China Investment Corp. Les raids et OPA sur les Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s occidentales vont donc se poursuivre. Les Groupes technologiques (EADS ?) et financiers (LSE, banques) devraient \u00eatre tr\u00e8s recherch\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

               Les financiers les plus aguerris estiment que les fonds de certains Etats trop riches, appel\u00e9s "Fonds Souverains", s’\u00e9l\u00e8vent, aujourd’hui, \u00e0 un montant global compris entre 2000 et 2500 milliards de dollars. Ces fonds autrefois plac\u00e9s en obligations ou en hypoth\u00e8ques am\u00e9ricaines ne posaient que peu de probl\u00e8mes. Mais les "US […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"\nLes recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res alimentent les Fonds Souverains - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/26\/les-recettes-pt\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res alimentent les Fonds Souverains - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"               Les financiers les plus aguerris estiment que les fonds de certains Etats trop riches, appel\u00e9s "Fonds Souverains", s’\u00e9l\u00e8vent, aujourd’hui, \u00e0 un montant global compris entre 2000 et 2500 milliards de dollars. 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