{"id":3643,"date":"2007-10-24T06:24:28","date_gmt":"2007-10-24T06:24:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:06:04","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:06:04","slug":"les-coups-de-fi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/","title":{"rendered":"Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/arithmetique1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"186\" alt=\"Arithmetique\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/arithmetique.jpg\" width=\"250\"  \/><\/a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <span style=\"font-size: 1.4em\">L<\/span>es cours du p\u00e9trole ont un caract\u00e8re cyclothymique parfois destabilisant pour le non initi\u00e9. Il faut dire qu&rsquo;ils viennent de tr\u00e8s loin, depuis Janvier 2002, quand le baril de WTI valait vingt dollars.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Alors ces cours progressent par pouss\u00e9es de fi\u00e8vre parfois logiques, lors du passage du cyclone Katrina par exemple, mais parfois inattendues comme celle que nous venons de subir avec un p\u00e9trole brut franchissant un nouveau plus haut \u00e0 90$ le baril, alors qu&rsquo;il venait d&rsquo;un plus bas de 20 mois, \u00e0 50$ le baril, en Janvier 2007. <\/p>\n<p>Pour mieux analyser le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne des variations de cours il est pr\u00e9f\u00e9rable de les d\u00e9composer en plusieurs termes. C&rsquo;est ce que nous allons faire.<\/p>\n<p>Tout d&rsquo;abord les cours croissent en moyenne, depuis plus de quatre ans, d&rsquo;un peu plus de 8$ par an (FIG.I).<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/cours_fig11.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"216\" alt=\"Cours_fig1\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/cours_fig1.jpg\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a>&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>Pour analyser les fluctuations des cours de courtes p\u00e9riodes il est pratique d&rsquo;enlever cette composante lin\u00e9aire en \u00e9tudiant la diff\u00e9rence entre le cours r\u00e9el et le cours moyen th\u00e9orique. Par exemple, en ce moment, le cours de la droite de r\u00e9gression moyenne est de 74,5$ on va donc \u00e9tudier la diff\u00e9rence entre cette valeur et la valeur r\u00e9elle. On obtient ainsi la FIG.II, o\u00f9 il est possible de repr\u00e9senter les variations relatives de cours par rapport \u00e0 la moyenne mobile, mais ramen\u00e9es sur un axe horizontal.<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/cours_fig21.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"245\" alt=\"Cours_fig2\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/cours_fig2.gif\" width=\"480\"  \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>On remarque que les cours varient dans des limites de + ou &#8211; 15$ par rapport \u00e0 la moyenne mobile lin\u00e9aire. Il existe une fluctuation de longue p\u00e9riode (deux ans) de type sinuso\u00efdal au cours de laquelle les cours passent alternativement d&rsquo;un c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la moyenne \u00e0 l&rsquo;autre tous les ans. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne traduit l&rsquo;humeur globale du march\u00e9. Il est pass\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e d&rsquo;une phase optimiste \u00e0 une phase haussi\u00e8re au mois de Septembre avec l&rsquo;arriv\u00e9e des cyclones aux USA.<\/p>\n<p>Puis on peut distinguer des variations de p\u00e9riodes plus br\u00e8ves qui correspondent \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e8nements plus ou moins marquants. On peut distinguer les cyclones de l&rsquo;\u00e9t\u00e9 2005, dont Katrina, le conflit libanais, l&rsquo;hiver doux et tardif de 2006\/2007, ainsi que l&rsquo;impact \u00e9ph\u00e9m\u00e8re de la crise du &quot;subprime&quot;. <\/p>\n<p>La pouss\u00e9e des cours des mois de Septembre et Octobre n&rsquo;est donc pas inhabituelle en amplitude, mais ce qui intrigue le plus c&rsquo;est l&rsquo;absence de cause bien identifi\u00e9e. Il semble que le March\u00e9 se saisisse de n&rsquo;importe quel pr\u00e9texte pour faire flamber les cours. Peut-\u00eatre a-t-il acquit la conviction que les premi\u00e8res <a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2007\/10\/lpuisement-des-.html\">p\u00e9nuries r\u00e9elles<\/a> en ressources p\u00e9troli\u00e8res sont attendues, pour dans quelques ann\u00e9es. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.leblogenergie.com\/2007\/10\/lpuisement-des-.html\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Les cours du p\u00e9trole ont un caract\u00e8re cyclothymique parfois destabilisant pour le non initi\u00e9. Il faut dire qu&rsquo;ils viennent de tr\u00e8s loin, depuis Janvier 2002, quand le baril de WTI valait vingt dollars. &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Alors ces cours progressent par pouss\u00e9es de fi\u00e8vre parfois [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Les cours du p\u00e9trole ont un caract\u00e8re cyclothymique parfois destabilisant pour le non initi\u00e9. Il faut dire qu&rsquo;ils viennent de tr\u00e8s loin, depuis Janvier 2002, quand le baril de WTI valait vingt dollars. &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Alors ces cours progressent par pouss\u00e9es de fi\u00e8vre parfois [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/arithmetique.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Raymond Bonnaterre\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/\",\"name\":\"Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/arithmetique.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2007-10-24T06:24:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-07-12T10:06:04+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/arithmetique.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/arithmetique.jpg\",\"width\":\"250\",\"height\":\"186\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\",\"name\":\"leblogenergie\",\"description\":\"Just another The Social Media Group Network site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/debca67b8b93370360bdbd19ceb00794\",\"name\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/4c04f9e9aab7489452c52f805e42fbd3?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Raymond Bonnaterre\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/raymond-bonnaterre\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/24\/les-coups-de-fi\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Les coups de fi\u00e8vre du p\u00e9trole - leblogenergie.com","twitter_description":"&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; Les cours du p\u00e9trole ont un caract\u00e8re cyclothymique parfois destabilisant pour le non initi\u00e9. 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