{"id":3647,"date":"2007-10-23T07:25:42","date_gmt":"2007-10-23T07:25:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/23\/un-indicateur-a\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:05:53","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:05:53","slug":"un-indicateur-a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/23\/un-indicateur-a\/","title":{"rendered":"Un indicateur avanc\u00e9 : la consommation estivale d\u2019essence aux USA."},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/a>\"Us_coal2_2\"<\/a>   <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

               La consommation d\u2019essence des Etats-Unis, qui s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 9,5 millions de barils par jour, repr\u00e9sente 45% de la demande globale US en produits raffin\u00e9s. C\u2019est une part importante (9,5\/84,4 soit 11%) de la consommation mondiale de produits p\u00e9troliers. En raison de capacit\u00e9s de raffinage limit\u00e9es les USA importent 12% de cette essence (un million de barils par jour). Nous allons examiner plus en d\u00e9tail la croissance de la consommation US depuis huit ans et essayer de d\u00e9gager un indicateur avanc\u00e9 du mode de vie des citoyens am\u00e9ricains.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                La variation annuelle de la consommation US d\u2019essence est donc un param\u00e8tre du premier ordre pour d\u00e9terminer l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9, la formation des cours des produits raffin\u00e9s et de ceux du p\u00e9trole brut. Mais c\u2019est aussi un indicateur du mode de vie des Am\u00e9ricains, puisque cette consommation d\u00e9pend pour une grande part du nombre de v\u00e9hicules en circulation, de leur consommation moyenne et de la longueur du parcours moyen annuel de l\u2019automobiliste am\u00e9ricain.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span>Le Department of Energy (DOE) publie les consommations hebdomadaires et mensuelles d\u2019essence sur le territoire am\u00e9ricain. Les valeurs mensuelles depuis Janvier 2000 sont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es (FIG. I).<\/a> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Gasoli1_2\"<\/a> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Il est difficile en cours d\u2019ann\u00e9e de comparer la consommation d\u2019essence \u00e0 celle des ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes en raison de la variabilit\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es d\u2019une semaine \u00e0 l\u2019autre ou d\u2019un mois \u00e0 l\u2019autre.<\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span>On remarque que la courbe historique pr\u00e9sente chaque ann\u00e9e un pic de consommation vers les mois de Juillet et Ao\u00fbt. Il correspond \u00e0 la \u00ab driving season \u00bb, p\u00e9riode durant laquelle les familles US (et Canadiennes)  <\/span>peuvent parcourir plusieurs centaines ou milliers de miles pour aller rendre visite \u00e0 leur famille ou prendre du bon temps en Floride ou en Californie. C\u2019est la ru\u00e9e vers les rivages de la \u00ab Sun Belt \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span>Sur la FIG. II, sont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es les consommations moyennes journali\u00e8res durant les seuls mois de Juillet et Ao\u00fbt entre 2000 et 2007.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Gasoli2\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

                <\/span>Cet indicateur avanc\u00e9 montre que, durant l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2007, les Citoyens Am\u00e9ricains automobilistes n\u2019ont pas fondamentalement modifi\u00e9 leur mode de vie.<\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span> <\/span>Leur nombre s\u2019accro\u00eet de 1% l\u2019an, en partie en raison de l\u2019immigration et le nombre de voitures suit cette tendance. La r\u00e9duction de consommation par v\u00e9hicule semble donc pour l\u2019instant tr\u00e8s faible. <\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span>Cet indicateur avanc\u00e9 qu\u2019est la consommation estivale d\u2019essence, semble \u00eatre, apparemment, en contradiction avec l\u2019annonce de la baisse de g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de CO2<\/sub> par les USA en 2006. En fait, la raison majeure de cette baisse est imputable \u00e0 l\u2019arriv\u00e9e tardive de l\u2019hiver  <\/span>qui a repouss\u00e9 les fortes consommations de gasoil, de propane et de gaz naturel en d\u00e9but 2007. En contrepartie, les statistiques 2007 devraient montrer une tr\u00e8s forte croissance de la production de CO2<\/sub> aux USA, surtout si l\u2019hiver 2007 est pr\u00e9coce.<\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span>En conclusion, la consommation estivale (Juillet et Ao\u00fbt) des automobilistes am\u00e9ricains, mesur\u00e9e depuis 2000, est toujours croissante. Le rythme de croissance semble cependant s\u2019infl\u00e9chir l\u00e9g\u00e8rement. La croissance du parc automobile de 1% par an environ n\u2019est pas totalement compens\u00e9e par la r\u00e9duction des consommations individuelles. Certains citoyens US ont pris conscience des probl\u00e8mes pos\u00e9s par les \u00e9missions de Carbone, mais ils n\u2019ont pas encore mis leur mode de vie en accord avec leurs convictions, sur ce sujet.<\/span><\/p>\n

                <\/span>Certains \u00e9conomistes fran\u00e7ais annoncent trop vite que la consommation de produits p\u00e9troliers d\u00e9cro\u00eet aux USA. C\u2019est faux, elle cro\u00eet.<\/span><\/p>\n

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                   La consommation d\u2019essence des Etats-Unis, qui s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 9,5 millions de barils par jour, repr\u00e9sente 45% de la demande globale US en produits raffin\u00e9s. C\u2019est une part importante (9,5\/84,4 soit 11%) de la consommation mondiale de produits p\u00e9troliers. En raison de capacit\u00e9s de raffinage limit\u00e9es les USA importent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"\nUn indicateur avanc\u00e9 : la consommation estivale d\u2019essence aux USA. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/23\/un-indicateur-a\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Un indicateur avanc\u00e9 : la consommation estivale d\u2019essence aux USA. - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                   La consommation d\u2019essence des Etats-Unis, qui s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 9,5 millions de barils par jour, repr\u00e9sente 45% de la demande globale US en produits raffin\u00e9s. C\u2019est une part importante (9,5\/84,4 soit 11%) de la consommation mondiale de produits p\u00e9troliers. 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