{"id":3650,"date":"2007-10-22T07:41:17","date_gmt":"2007-10-22T07:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/22\/lpuisement-des\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:05:43","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:05:43","slug":"lpuisement-des","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/22\/lpuisement-des\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019\u00e9puisement des champs de p\u00e9trole g\u00e9ants."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>&nbsp; &nbsp; <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/fredrik_dis_2001.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"125\" height=\"215\"  src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/fredrik_dis_200.jpg\" alt=\"Fredrik_dis_200\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px;float: left\" \/><\/a> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span> Pour comprendre le futur se l\u2019exploration p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, de ses ressources et de notre futur mode de vie il faut lire la th\u00e8se de Fredrik Robelius de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Uppsala en Su\u00e9de. Elle s\u2019intitule :<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><a href=\"http:\/\/publications.uu.se\/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625\"><span style=\"color: #800080\">Giant Oil Fields \u2013 The Highway to Oil<\/span><\/a><\/span><br \/><em><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>Giant Oil Fields and Their Importance for Future Oil Production<\/span><\/span><\/em> <\/p>\n<p align=\"center\" class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;text-align: center\"><em><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><\/p>\n<p><span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span> Dans ce travail acad\u00e9mique il \u00e9tudie les projections de productions de 507 champs p\u00e9troliers g\u00e9ants, contenant plus de 500 millions de barils de p\u00e9trole r\u00e9cup\u00e9rable.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>Ces champs en nombre repr\u00e9sentent seulement <strong>1% du nombre de champs exploit\u00e9s<\/strong> ou connus. Mais en 2005 ils repr\u00e9sentaient <strong>60% de la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et 65% des R\u00e9serves Ultimes<\/strong> <strong>R\u00e9cup\u00e9rables (URR)<\/strong>. La majorit\u00e9 de ces champs ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9couverts depuis plus de 50 ans et l\u2019on en d\u00e9couvre de moins en moins et de tailles de plus en plus r\u00e9duites. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>L\u2019\u00e9tude de la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion de ces champs, coupl\u00e9e avec des hypoth\u00e8ses de futures d\u00e9couvertes et de l\u2019exploitation des sables bitumineux permettent \u00e0 l\u2019auteur de b\u00e2tir plusieurs sc\u00e9narios qui pr\u00e9voient un maximum de production <strong>au plus tard en 2018 avec 93 mbl\/j<\/strong>. Ce r\u00e9sultat est bien plus en retrait que les conclusions de l\u2019 EIA qui pr\u00e9disaient un maximum vers 2030 \u00e0 123 mbl\/j. Robelius attribue cette diff\u00e9rence \u00e0 la sous-estimation par l\u2019<strong>EIA<\/strong> de la rapide d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion des champs g\u00e9ants. Il est en contradiction \u00e9galement avec les travaux analytiques du <strong>CERA<\/strong> &nbsp;qui pr\u00e9voit un potentiel de production de 110 mbl\/j en 2015. La confrontation critique des hypoth\u00e8ses de chacun serait captivante.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><\/p>\n<p><span> <a href=\"http:\/\/clabedan.typepad.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/2007\/10\/21\/uhdsg_peak_oil.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"480\" height=\"285\"  src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/uhdsg_peak_oil.jpg\" alt=\"Uhdsg_peak_oil\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>Le plus important dans cette \u00e9tude n\u2019est pas la date du maximum, c\u2019est sa <strong>faible amplitude <\/strong>\u00e0 93 mbl\/j. En 2007 le monde consomme 86 mbl\/j. L\u2019accroissement de consommation annuel moyen depuis dix ans est de 1,3 mbl\/j. Avec les besoins croissants de l\u2019Asie, du Moyen-Orient et de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Sud il n\u2019y a pas de raison que ce rythme se ralentisse, au contraire. Une extrapolation lin\u00e9aire simple montre que la <strong><u>demande en p\u00e9trole devrait atteindre 93 mbl\/j dans cinq ans.<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span><strong><u><br \/> <\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><span>Cette pr\u00e9vision montre que nous devrions entrer dans des p\u00e9riodes de r\u00e9elle p\u00e9nurie en p\u00e9trole dans trois \u00e0 cinq ans en fonction des contraintes g\u00e9opolitiques. <strong>C\u2019est demain<\/strong> <strong>!<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><\/p>\n<p><span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; Pour comprendre le futur se l\u2019exploration p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, de ses ressources et de notre futur mode de vie il faut lire la th\u00e8se de Fredrik Robelius de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Uppsala en Su\u00e9de. Elle s\u2019intitule : &nbsp; Giant Oil Fields \u2013 The Highway to OilGiant Oil Fields and Their Importance for Future Oil Production &nbsp; Dans [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energie-fossile"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019\u00e9puisement des champs de p\u00e9trole g\u00e9ants. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/22\/lpuisement-des\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"L\u2019\u00e9puisement des champs de p\u00e9trole g\u00e9ants. - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&nbsp; &nbsp; Pour comprendre le futur se l\u2019exploration p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, de ses ressources et de notre futur mode de vie il faut lire la th\u00e8se de Fredrik Robelius de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 d\u2019Uppsala en Su\u00e9de. 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