{"id":3658,"date":"2007-10-20T06:56:19","date_gmt":"2007-10-20T06:56:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/20\/exxon-ou-total\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:05:30","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:05:30","slug":"exxon-ou-total","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/20\/exxon-ou-total\/","title":{"rendered":"Exxon ou Total : combien de barils de p\u00e9trole?"},"content":{"rendered":"

   \"Bordeauxvue\"<\/a>            <\/span><\/p>\n

      U<\/span>n analyste am\u00e9ricain, Brett Steenbarger, s\u2019est amus\u00e9 \u00e0 valoriser les cours de la Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Exxon-Mobil en barils de p\u00e9trole WTI (Exxon Mobil Stock Up Big, But Underperforming Crude – Seeking Alpha<\/span><\/a>). Il montre ainsi, que depuis un plus haut en 1998, malgr\u00e9 la belle performance de l\u2019action XOM, leader des Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res cot\u00e9es, cette valeur en \u00e9quivalent baril, a tendance \u00e0 d\u00e9cro\u00eetre pour se stabiliser autour du prix d\u2019une action XOM pour celui de 1,1 baril de p\u00e9trole.<\/span><\/p>\n

               Il m\u2019a sembl\u00e9 int\u00e9ressant de faire le m\u00eame type d\u2019exercice pour le cours de l\u2019action Total et de comparer les comportements des deux actions. La valorisation des capitalisations boursi\u00e8res et leur comparaison aux stocks ou aux productions annuelles s\u2019av\u00e8re \u00eatre instructive.<\/p>\n

             <\/span>Afin d\u2019\u00eatre ind\u00e9pendant des cours de change euro\/dollar j\u2019ai \u00e9tudi\u00e9 le cours hebdomadaire de l\u2019ADR TOT cot\u00e9 \u00e0 Wall-Street. Le r\u00e9sultat de ce calcul, compar\u00e9 \u00e0 celui d\u2019Exxon, depuis deux ans est repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 FIG.I.\"Xom_et_tot2\"<\/a>   <\/span><\/p>\n

\n

    On remarque tout d\u2019abord l\u2019inversion des valorisations relatives. L\u2019action TOT qui valait un dixi\u00e8me de baril de plus que XOM en 2005 en vaut maintenant 1,5 dixi\u00e8me de moins.<\/p>\n

     La direction de Total invoque le dollar comme cause de tous les maux. On voit l\u00e0 que l\u2019explication est un peu juste. Le spin-off d\u2019Arkema est \u00e0 porter au cr\u00e9dit, mais ne suffit pas \u00e0 expliquer cette inversion.<\/p>\n

            <\/span> <\/span>Le pic de Janvier 2007 correspond au prix anormalement bas du p\u00e9trole (50$\/bl) atteint \u00e0 l\u2019entr\u00e9e d\u2019un hiver 2006\/2007 exceptionnellement tardif en Am\u00e9rique du Nord. Depuis les cours des deux actions, exprim\u00e9s en barils, d\u00e9croissent. Cela signifie que les cours de ces Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ne suivent pas le prix de vente de leur production, ni la valorisation de leurs r\u00e9serves.<\/p>\n

            <\/span>La capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de Total au 20\/10\/2007<\/strong> correspond \u00e0 la valeur de 2,14 milliards de<\/strong> barils<\/strong> (2395 millions d\u2019actions \u00e0 0.893 barils). Il est int\u00e9ressant de rapporter cette valeur aux r\u00e9serves de p\u00e9trole et de gaz qui sont respectivement de 6,6 et 4,5 milliards de barils. Compte tenu des valorisations diff\u00e9rentes du gaz et du p\u00e9trole (un baril de p\u00e9trole est valoris\u00e9 \u00e0 deux fois et demi celui de gaz) faire la somme n\u2019est pas \u00e9conomiquement correct. Une approche plus rigoureuse est d\u2019ajouter 40% des r\u00e9serves de gaz \u00e0 celles de p\u00e9trole. On obtient ainsi  <\/span>des r\u00e9serves \u00ab valoris\u00e9es \u00bb de 8,4 mds de barils. La capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de Total correspond donc \u00e0 25% de la valeur de ses r\u00e9serves<\/strong>. Celle d\u2019Exxon, <\/strong>selon le m\u00eame mode de calcul est de 5,77 milliards de barils<\/strong>, c\u2019est 35% de ses r\u00e9serves valoris\u00e9es<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

            <\/span>Un calcul analogue en comparaison avec les productions annuelles de Total, qui s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vent sur les quatre derniers trimestres connus \u00e0 0,55 mds de barils de liquides et \u00e0 0,31 mds de barils \u00e9quivalents de gaz, montre que la valorisation de Total est \u00e9gale \u00e0 3,2 ans de production. En comparaison, la capitalisation d\u2019Exxon est de 4,8 ans de production.<\/strong><\/p>\n

           <\/span>On mesure l\u00e0, la formidable sous valorisation de l\u2019action Total<\/u>. Un peu plus de trois ans de production c\u2019est la juste valeur de ses droits sur les champs p\u00e9troliers et gaziers actuellement exploit\u00e9s. Tout se passe comme si les futures productions et la totalit\u00e9 de l\u2019aval (chimie, raffinage et distribution), n\u2019\u00e9taient pas valoris\u00e9es dans le cours l\u2019action Total. <\/p>\n

\n

            <\/span>A qui la faute ? Une image d\u00e9grad\u00e9e ? Un march\u00e9 CAC trop \u00e9troit ? Une communication peu fiable qui annonce un volume de production en croissance annuelle de 4%  <\/span>en Septembre et de 1,5 \u00e0 2% en Octobre ? Une gestion historiquement \u00ab p\u00e9p\u00e8re \u00bb illustr\u00e9e par les progr\u00e8s r\u00e9alis\u00e9s par Arkema depuis son spin-off ? Des structures on\u00e9reuses, complexes et surdimensionn\u00e9es ? Une gestion bizarre du cash qui fait de Total un groupe endett\u00e9 et en m\u00eame temps un gros actionnaire \u00ab quasi institutionnel \u00bb poss\u00e9dant 13% de Sanofi? S\u00fbrement chacune de ces causes participe, pour partie, \u00e0 cette d\u00e9cote.<\/p>\n

\n

            <\/span>En conclusion, la valorisation de l\u2019action Total, cot\u00e9e en dollars \u00e0 Wall-Street et exprim\u00e9e en \u00ab unit\u00e9 baril de p\u00e9trole \u00bb, montre une d\u00e9croissance au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2007 \u00e0 partir d\u2019un plus haut \u00e0 1,3 barils en Janvier, pour atteindre 0.9 barils aujourd\u2019hui. Figure peu commune, son cours en dollars semble donc \u00eatre tr\u00e8s peu sensible \u00e0 la valeur de vente de ses productions. La capitalisation boursi\u00e8re repr\u00e9sente 25% de la valorisation des r\u00e9serves ou 3,2 ans de production. Les valeurs absolues de ces ratios et leur comparaison avec ceux d\u2019Exxon montrent, de fa\u00e7on \u00e9vidente, que cette action est anormalement sous valoris\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      Un analyste am\u00e9ricain, Brett Steenbarger, s\u2019est amus\u00e9 \u00e0 valoriser les cours de la Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Exxon-Mobil en barils de p\u00e9trole WTI (Exxon Mobil Stock Up Big, But Underperforming Crude – Seeking Alpha). Il montre ainsi, que depuis un plus haut en 1998, malgr\u00e9 la belle performance de l\u2019action […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6457,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"\nExxon ou Total : combien de barils de p\u00e9trole? - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/20\/exxon-ou-total\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Exxon ou Total : combien de barils de p\u00e9trole? - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"                      Un analyste am\u00e9ricain, Brett Steenbarger, s\u2019est amus\u00e9 \u00e0 valoriser les cours de la Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Exxon-Mobil en barils de p\u00e9trole WTI (Exxon Mobil Stock Up Big, But Underperforming Crude – Seeking Alpha). 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