{"id":366,"date":"2010-06-28T16:49:57","date_gmt":"2010-06-28T16:49:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/06\/28\/la-france-vatelle-mettre-fin-a-la-decennie-du-commerce-perdu\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T12:16:46","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T12:16:46","slug":"la-france-vatelle-mettre-fin-a-la-decennie-du-commerce-perdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/06\/28\/la-france-vatelle-mettre-fin-a-la-decennie-du-commerce-perdu\/","title":{"rendered":"La France va-t-elle mettre fin \u00e0 la d\u00e9cennie du commerce perdu?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;L&#039;INSEE nous apprend, avec son sens proverbial du court terme, que le PIB de la France au premier trimestre de cette ann\u00e9e ne s&#039;est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 que de 0,1 point malgr\u00e9 une contribution positive de 0,4 point du solde du commerce ext\u00e9rieur en nette progression. En effet ce dernier est glorieusement pass\u00e9 de -12,9 milliards d&#039;euros au T4 2009 \u00e0 la bagatelle de -10,9 milliards d&#039;euros au T1 2010. Effectivement la variation de cet agr\u00e9gat \u00e9conomique fortement&#160; n\u00e9gatif est positive. <\/p>\n<p>&#160;Afin de mieux comprendre les tendances \u00e0 long et moyen terme du solde du commerce ext\u00e9rieur de la France il est bien s\u00fbr indispensable de prendre du recul, sur la base des chiffres longs de l&#039;INSEE (FIG.I). On s&#039;aper\u00e7oit alors que depuis 1998, Lionel Jospin&#160; \u00e9tait alors depuis peu \u00e0 la direction des affaires, le solde du commerce ext\u00e9rieur est pass\u00e9 en une grosse d\u00e9cennie d&#039;un exc\u00e9dent maximum, mesur\u00e9 sur 4 trimestres mobiles, de 32 milliards d&#039;euros \u00e0 un d\u00e9ficit de 54 milliards d&#039;euros en 2009. Ce sont donc 86 milliards annuels d&#039;importations en plus ou d&#039;exportations en moins qui se sont venus plomber les comptes du commerce ext\u00e9rieur en 11 ans, avec une chute particuli\u00e8rement impressionnante \u00e0 partir de 2003.<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20134850cc0c6970c-pi.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Solde-commerce-1980-2010\" class=\"asset asset-image at-xid-6a00d83451b18369e20134850cc0c6970c \" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/6a00d83451b18369e20134850cc0c6970c-450wi.jpg\" style=\"width: 450px\" \/><\/a> <br \/>Alors, ce dont parle l&#039;INSEE dans son communiqu\u00e9, c&#039;est du tout petit rebond en bas \u00e0 droite de la courbe qui on le voit est mal en point depuis bien longtemps. Mais, faut-il prendre au s\u00e9rieux ce l\u00e9ger rebond d&#039;apr\u00e8s crise?<\/p>\n<p>Cela va d\u00e9pendre des acteurs \u00e9conomiques et politiques de notre pays. L&#039;arr\u00eat d&#039;une politique poussant \u00e0 l&#039;absurde la consommation (les Fran\u00e7ais n&#039;ont jamais autant achet\u00e9 de voitures qu&#039;en 2009, ann\u00e9e de crise,&#8230;.le plus souvent produites hors de France) et dissuadant les investissements productifs par d&#039;anciennes r\u00e8glementations sociales et fiscales trop strictes. Le n\u00e9cessaire transfert progressif des charges de solidarit\u00e9 du travail vers la consommation. La fin d&#039;une croyance na\u00efve qu&#039;une activit\u00e9 industrielle \u00e9cologique peut sortir du n\u00e9ant industriel gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 quelques &quot;grenelles&quot; plus ou moins bidons. La reconnaissance que tout effort de recherche et d&#039;innovation ne verra ses effets dans les chiffres de nouveaux business que dans 15 \u00e0 20 ans. Tous ces param\u00e8tres seraient de nature \u00e0 rendre optimiste sur un \u00e9ventuel retournement de tendance. Nos contemporains sont de nature \u00e0 comprendre que de vivre \u00e0 cr\u00e9dit n&#039;est peut-\u00eatre pas la meilleure des voies \u00e0 poursuivre, encore faudrait-il leur en parler avec plus d&#039;objectivit\u00e9 et de bon sens, toute d\u00e9bilitante m\u00e9thode Cou\u00e9 de droite ou de gauche \u00e9tant vou\u00e9e \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9chec.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.insee.fr\/fr\/themes\/info-rapide.asp?id=28&amp;date=20100625\" target=\"_blank\">LIRE<\/a> le communiqu\u00e9 de l&#039;INSEE<\/p>\n<p>Le 28 Juin 2010<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#160;L&#039;INSEE nous apprend, avec son sens proverbial du court terme, que le PIB de la France au premier trimestre de cette ann\u00e9e ne s&#039;est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 que de 0,1 point malgr\u00e9 une contribution positive de 0,4 point du solde du commerce ext\u00e9rieur en nette progression. En effet ce dernier est glorieusement pass\u00e9 de -12,9 milliards d&#039;euros [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":22060,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La France va-t-elle mettre fin \u00e0 la d\u00e9cennie du commerce perdu? - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2010\/06\/28\/la-france-vatelle-mettre-fin-a-la-decennie-du-commerce-perdu\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La France va-t-elle mettre fin \u00e0 la d\u00e9cennie du commerce perdu? - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"&#160;L&#039;INSEE nous apprend, avec son sens proverbial du court terme, que le PIB de la France au premier trimestre de cette ann\u00e9e ne s&#039;est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 que de 0,1 point malgr\u00e9 une contribution positive de 0,4 point du solde du commerce ext\u00e9rieur en nette progression. 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