{"id":3667,"date":"2007-10-18T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2007-10-18T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/18\/un-casse-tte-pt\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:05:08","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:05:08","slug":"un-casse-tte-pt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/18\/un-casse-tte-pt\/","title":{"rendered":"Un casse-t\u00eate p\u00e9trolier: les variations hebdomadaires de stocks U.S."},"content":{"rendered":"

       \"9f\"<\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n

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       La pr\u00e9vision des  <\/span>variations de stocks hebdomadaires en produits p\u00e9troliers aux U.S.A. est un jeu complexe, r\u00e9pandu et risqu\u00e9. Les soi-disant \u00ab experts \u00bb qui pratiquent cet exercice se trompent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et d\u2019amplitude et de signe. L\u2019agence Bloomberg fait une m\u00e9diane de plusieurs dizaines de pronostics et bien s\u00fbr elle a \u00ab tout faux \u00bb de fa\u00e7on tr\u00e8s r\u00e9guli\u00e8re, au point qu\u2019il est possible de s\u2019interroger, sur les raisons de sa constance dans cet exercice. En effet l\u2019enjeu \u00e9conomique d’une bonne pr\u00e9vision est \u00e9vident, pour ceux qui jouent \u00e0 terme sur les \u00ab future \u00bb au Nymex.<\/span><\/p>\n

            <\/span>Alors, voyons pourquoi ce sport c\u00e9r\u00e9bral est-il si complexe ?<\/span><\/p>\n

            Tout d\u2019abord il y a plusieurs produits : les principaux sont le p\u00e9trole brut, l\u2019essence et le fuel-gasoil (\u00ab distillates \u00bb). L\u2019essence est importante \u00e0 suivre l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, les \u00ab distillates \u00bb l\u2019hiver.<\/span><\/p>\n

            <\/span>Le bilan des stocks est la r\u00e9sultante des consommations, des productions et des importations.             <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

            <\/span>Examinons tout d\u2019abord l\u2019\u00e9quation globale. La consommation US en produits p\u00e9troliers est de l\u2019ordre de  <\/span>21 millions de barils par jour<\/strong> (25% de la consommation mondiale), sa production en liquides est voisine de 7 mbl\/j<\/strong> (5,2 d\u2019extraction de p\u00e9trole brut et 1,8 de condensats obtenus lors de l\u2019extraction de gaz naturel) auxquels il faut ajouter les 0,4 mbl\/j de fuel-\u00e9thanol<\/strong>, ses importations atteignent 13.6mbl\/j<\/strong>. Pr\u00e8s des deux tiers<\/strong> de la consommation am\u00e9ricaine sont import\u00e9s. Les produits proviennent de toutes les parties du monde, mais le principal fournisseur est le Canada. Le bilan est donc globalement \u00e9quilibr\u00e9, mais les variations hebdomadaires des consommations et surtout des importations sont tr\u00e8s fortes. Plus ou moins 0,7 mbl\/j pour la plage de variation des premi\u00e8res et plus ou moins 1 mbl\/j pour celle des importations. Comme il faut multiplier par 7 pour obtenir les variations hebdomadaires de stocks, on observe r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement des variations de stocks<\/strong> sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 5,5 mbl qui est la valeur de l\u2019\u00e9cart type des variations de stocks hebdomadaires<\/strong>, depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p>\n

            <\/span>Prenons l\u2019exemple de la semaine derni\u00e8re. Les consommations ont \u00e9t\u00e9 soutenues \u00e0 21 mbl\/j<\/strong>, mais les importations de brut et de produits raffin\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 importantes \u00e0 14,2 mbl\/j<\/strong> (10,4 de brut et 3,8 de produits raffin\u00e9s) auxquels il faut rajouter les 7,4 mbl\/j<\/strong> de productions autochtones. Le bilan est positif de 0,6mbl\/j soit un gain de stocks de 4 mbl en 7 jours.<\/span><\/p>\n

            <\/span>Pour pr\u00e9voir les variations de produits bruts ou raffin\u00e9s individuels il faut introduire un nouveau param\u00e8tre, tout aussi al\u00e9atoire : la production du raffinage local<\/strong>. Les raffineries US sont v\u00e9tustes, parfois peu maintenues, souvent arr\u00eat\u00e9es par des incidents et handicap\u00e9es par des sp\u00e9cifications de produits qui varient d\u2019une saison \u00e0 l\u2019autre, sinon d\u2019un Etat \u00e0 l\u2019autre. Lorsqu\u2019elles fonctionnent mal les stocks de brut, peu consomm\u00e9s, augmentent. Dans le cas inverse se sont les valeurs de stocks de produits raffin\u00e9s qui croissent. La plage de variation de brut trait\u00e9 est de 15,5 \u00b1 0,8  <\/span>mbl\/j<\/strong>. La pr\u00e9vision des variations hebdomadaires de chacun des produits, devient alors un exercice de haute \u00e9cole.<\/span><\/p>\n

            <\/span>En conclusion la pr\u00e9vision d\u00e9taill\u00e9e des variations de stocks hebdomadaires US est un exercice tellement complexe, en raison de multiples param\u00e8tres de consommation, de production et d\u2019importation, qu\u2019il ne faut surtout pas croire aux anticipations des experts en la mati\u00e8re et plut\u00f4t, se fier \u00e0 son intuition du moment. Exemple : les professionnels, malgr\u00e9 la chert\u00e9 du p\u00e9trole brut, reconstituent, en ce moment, les stocks en pr\u00e9vision de l\u2019hiver. Les prix aux USA sont tr\u00e8s attractifs pour tous les exportateurs mondiaux de brut ou de produits interm\u00e9diaires et raffin\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              La pr\u00e9vision des  variations de stocks hebdomadaires en produits p\u00e9troliers aux U.S.A. est un jeu complexe, r\u00e9pandu et risqu\u00e9. Les soi-disant \u00ab experts \u00bb qui pratiquent cet exercice se trompent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et d\u2019amplitude et de signe. L\u2019agence Bloomberg fait une m\u00e9diane de plusieurs dizaines de pronostics et bien s\u00fbr […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":341,"featured_media":6436,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1154],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comment-ca-marche"],"yoast_head":"\nUn casse-t\u00eate p\u00e9trolier: les variations hebdomadaires de stocks U.S. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/10\/18\/un-casse-tte-pt\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Un casse-t\u00eate p\u00e9trolier: les variations hebdomadaires de stocks U.S. - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"              La pr\u00e9vision des  variations de stocks hebdomadaires en produits p\u00e9troliers aux U.S.A. est un jeu complexe, r\u00e9pandu et risqu\u00e9. Les soi-disant \u00ab experts \u00bb qui pratiquent cet exercice se trompent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et d\u2019amplitude et de signe. 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