{"id":3838,"date":"2007-08-21T15:14:38","date_gmt":"2007-08-21T15:14:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/08\/21\/mer-du-nord-le\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T10:01:39","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T10:01:39","slug":"mer-du-nord-le","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/08\/21\/mer-du-nord-le\/","title":{"rendered":"Mer du Nord : le point du d\u00e9clin."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Production\"<\/a>1991 : 3.9 Millions de barils jours
1992 : 4.2 Mbj
1993 : 4.5 Mbj
1994 : 5.4 Mbj
1995 : 5.7 Mbj
1996 : 6    Mbj
1997 : 6    Mbj
1998 : 6    Mbj
1999 : 6,1 Mbj
2000 : 6    Mbj
2001 : 5.9 Mbj
2002 : 5.8 Mbj
2003 : 5.5 Mbj
2004 : 5.2 Mbj
2005 : 4.8 Mbj
2006 : 4.4 Mbj
2007 : 4.1 Mbj<\/p>\n

et pour les estimations : 2008 : 3.9 et 2012 : 3. On voit que la courbe a \u00e9t\u00e9 en plateau assez longtemps, six ans, avec une petite pointe en 1999 \u00e0 6.1, qui permet surtout de donner \u00e0 cette courbe un sommet, mais que le caract\u00e8re \u00e9tale \u00e0 cette \u00e9poque, masquait en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 un recours de plus en plus fort \u00e0 la technologie la plus perfectionn\u00e9e pour ass\u00e9cher les gisements.
De m\u00eame, le d\u00e9clin actuel a lieu, malgr\u00e9 une flamb\u00e9e des investissements, et que les estimations de 2008 et 2012, fort optimiste en ce qui concerne les volumes de production, fait penser que les p\u00e9troliers sont eux aussi rentr\u00e9s dans la phase de n\u00e9gation de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, prenant leurs d\u00e9sirs pour des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s.
La course \u00e0 l’arctique<\/a> ne serait pas aussi prononc\u00e9, si on avait r\u00e9ellement de l’optimisme. Toutes les prospections ont \u00e9t\u00e9 faites, les embrouillaminis politiques et les interventions militaires ont pr\u00e9cipit\u00e9s les chutes de production dans les pays les plus riches en hydrocarbures, et la querelle Irano-am\u00e9ricaine<\/a> sur le nucl\u00e9aire peut pr\u00e9cipiter le mouvement.
La technologie ne pourra pas tout r\u00e9gler donc. Et il y a fort \u00e0 parier que la courbe de d\u00e9clin de la mer du nord sera parfaite : c’est une zone politiquement sure. Et qu’en 2012 on produira 1.5 Mbj.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1991 : 3.9 Millions de barils jours1992 : 4.2 Mbj1993 : 4.5 Mbj1994 : 5.4 Mbj1995 : 5.7 Mbj1996 : 6    Mbj1997 : 6    Mbj1998 : 6    Mbj1999 : 6,1 Mbj2000 : 6    Mbj2001 : 5.9 Mbj2002 : 5.8 Mbj2003 : 5.5 Mbj2004 : 5.2 Mbj2005 : 4.8 Mbj2006 : 4.4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":6094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1554],"class_list":["post-3838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-querelle-irano-americaine-course-a-larctique"],"yoast_head":"\nMer du Nord : le point du d\u00e9clin. - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/08\/21\/mer-du-nord-le\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Mer du Nord : le point du d\u00e9clin. - 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