{"id":3920,"date":"2007-07-27T20:46:50","date_gmt":"2007-07-27T20:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/27\/le-pic-oim-est\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:59:52","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:59:52","slug":"le-pic-oim-est","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/27\/le-pic-oim-est\/","title":{"rendered":"Le pic oil est devenu visible…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Peakoilmovieth\"<\/a>La production de brut vient de baisser : – 500 000 barils entre mai et juin, – 700 000 entre avril et mai, l’AIE<\/a> (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie), d\u00e9sormais met en relief la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du pic oil.
84,3 millions de barils jour en juin 2007, c’est la production, encore consid\u00e9rable, mais sur le d\u00e9clin. Surtout face \u00e0 une demande qui s’envole : 86 M de barils jours, au troisi\u00e8me trimestre.
En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, m\u00eame si les voeux de L’AIE s’av\u00e9raient combl\u00e9s, que les producteurs produisent aux taquets de ce qu’elle croit possible, on aurait 2 millions de barils en plus chaque jour. Avec le d\u00e9clin pr\u00e9visible du 3\u00b0 trimestre, c’est clair d\u00e9sormais que la descente de la courbe est engag\u00e9e. Clairement.<\/p>\n

D\u00e9sormais, quelles seront les cons\u00e9quences ? Peut \u00eatre pas forc\u00e9ment celles auxquels on pense. En effet, l’augmentation vertigineuse des prix est loin d’\u00eatre in\u00e9luctable.
Pour plusieurs raisons :
– les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents chocs p\u00e9troliers<\/a> ont \u00e9t\u00e9 des crises de prix, non des crises de volumes. Ceux ci restaient importants, m\u00eame plus chers.
– la mondialisation "in\u00e9luctable" et "incontournable" est morte. Elle s’appuie sur des prix de transports bas. L’essor des \u00e9changes \u00e9taient assis sur ses prix. Il y a eu des reflux connus. On avait, par exemple annon\u00e7ait la mort de la sid\u00e9rurgie US, au d\u00e9but 1990. Elle fut sauv\u00e9e par des remont\u00e9es de prix de transport. Tous les pond\u00e9reux, chaque personne qui travaille dans ces secteurs le savent. Le facteur kilom\u00e8tre est plus qu’important. Ce facteur a fait que la France soit le pays des centaines de fromages.
– la vitesse de changement peut \u00eatre vertigineuse. Des usages peuvent se trouver diam\u00e9tralement chamboul\u00e9s. L’autosuffisance alimentaire proche en est un exemple. Tant pis pour le Pib  s’il  y a  moins de  camions sur les routes et que notre dit  pib soit minor\u00e9 d’autant , nous n’en vivrons peut \u00eatre pas moins bien. Quel int\u00e9r\u00eat de manger des haricots du Burkina Faso ? Pas beaucoup ici, pas beaucoup l\u00e0 bas…
– La chute du US $ est une crise de d\u00e9solvabilisation. C’est le quart de la consommation. La suite de la crise financi\u00e8re en cours est donc cruciale.
Beaucoup de sc\u00e9narios, mais tous aboutissent au m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat : fin de la mondialisation, fin de l’empire US, fin d’une \u00e9poque et mutation technique acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e qui risque de nous surprendre…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La production de brut vient de baisser : – 500 000 barils entre mai et juin, – 700 000 entre avril et mai, l’AIE (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie), d\u00e9sormais met en relief la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du pic oil.84,3 millions de barils jour en juin 2007, c’est la production, encore consid\u00e9rable, mais sur le d\u00e9clin. Surtout face […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1636],"class_list":["post-3920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-aie-chocs-petroliers"],"yoast_head":"\nLe pic oil est devenu visible... - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/27\/le-pic-oim-est\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Le pic oil est devenu visible... - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"La production de brut vient de baisser : – 500 000 barils entre mai et juin, – 700 000 entre avril et mai, l’AIE (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie), d\u00e9sormais met en relief la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du pic oil.84,3 millions de barils jour en juin 2007, c’est la production, encore consid\u00e9rable, mais sur le d\u00e9clin. 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