{"id":3967,"date":"2007-07-10T10:11:25","date_gmt":"2007-07-10T10:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:58:55","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:58:55","slug":"le-point-de-bas-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point de bascule…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Balance\"<\/a>L’AIE<\/a> apr\u00e8s l’IEA<\/a>, le reconnait. Le point de bascule est atteint. Entre offre et demande de p\u00e9trole, rien ne va plus. La demande d\u00e9passe d\u00e9sormais l’offre, malgr\u00e9 un envol \u00e0 77 $ du brent.
"Malgr\u00e9 quatre ans marqu\u00e9s par des prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce rapport pr\u00e9voit une hausse des tensions sur le march\u00e9 au-del\u00e0 de 2010", a ajout\u00e9 l’AIE. "Il est possible que le point critique pour l’offre puisse \u00eatre retard\u00e9 – mais pas de beaucoup".
En m\u00eame temps des r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la baisse de la production viennent d’\u00eatre pr\u00e9vus pour plusieurs pays, ainsi que du potentiel non exploit\u00e9 de l’Opep, pour … 2009, de 2 millions de barils\/jour.
Le raffinage manque quand \u00e0 lui de main d’oeuvre qualifi\u00e9e (ing\u00e9nieurs), d’investissements et de main d’oeuvre tout court.<\/p>\n

En ce qui concerne les efforts de prospection, ils se maintiennent mais n’augmentent pas. La raison en est simple, dans l’optique des p\u00e9troliers, il n’y a plus rien \u00e0 trouver.
En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, ce que ne veut pas reconnaitre l’AIE, c’est que non seulement la croissance de la demande continue, mais aussi que l’offre devient elle m\u00eame probl\u00e9matique. Les perspectives \u00e0 moyen terme sont abaiss\u00e9es, mais le court terme est aussi inqui\u00e9tant aussi. Les gisements deviennent "matures" (selon la terminologie politiquement correcte), c-\u00e0-d, d\u00e9clinent. 1.7 \u00e0 1 millions de barils jour pour la mer du nord Britannique, encore moins que les pr\u00e9visions gouvernementales qui oscillent entre quasi maintien (1.6 MBJ) et franc d\u00e9clin  (1,1 MBJ). Le syndrome qui nous frappe risque d’\u00eatre celui "du jour d’apr\u00e8s<\/a>".
Bien que pr\u00e9vu et pr\u00e9visible, le d\u00e9but de la fin surprend tout le monde…
Avec cela, autre nouvelle disjointe qui est lourde d’inqui\u00e9tude : la Turquie a mass\u00e9 140 000 hommes \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re irakienne, et l’\u00e9tat-major semble bien d\u00e9termin\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9gler la question kurde. Contre l’alli\u00e9 de l’alli\u00e9.
Pendant ce temps, la production de bio carburant va bient\u00f4t atteindre 1.75 MBJ (ne riez pas : consommation 1920).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’AIE apr\u00e8s l’IEA, le reconnait. Le point de bascule est atteint. Entre offre et demande de p\u00e9trole, rien ne va plus. La demande d\u00e9passe d\u00e9sormais l’offre, malgr\u00e9 un envol \u00e0 77 $ du brent."Malgr\u00e9 quatre ans marqu\u00e9s par des prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce rapport pr\u00e9voit une hausse des tensions sur le march\u00e9 au-del\u00e0 de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1682],"class_list":["post-3967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-aie-iea-jour-dapres"],"yoast_head":"\nLe point de bascule... - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Le point de bascule... - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"L’AIE apr\u00e8s l’IEA, le reconnait. Le point de bascule est atteint. Entre offre et demande de p\u00e9trole, rien ne va plus. La demande d\u00e9passe d\u00e9sormais l’offre, malgr\u00e9 un envol \u00e0 77 $ du brent."Malgr\u00e9 quatre ans marqu\u00e9s par des prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce rapport pr\u00e9voit une hausse des tensions sur le march\u00e9 au-del\u00e0 de […]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/balance.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"patrick reymond\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/\",\"name\":\"Le point de bascule... - leblogenergie.com\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/balance.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2007-07-10T10:11:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-07-12T09:58:55+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/348ae2a6d3fa221c5d38a293ee3dba3c\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/balance.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/balance.jpg\",\"width\":\"249\",\"height\":\"187\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Le point de bascule…\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/\",\"name\":\"leblogenergie\",\"description\":\"Just another The Social Media Group Network site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/348ae2a6d3fa221c5d38a293ee3dba3c\",\"name\":\"patrick reymond\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"patrick reymond\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/author\/patrick-reymond\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Le point de bascule... - leblogenergie.com","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/10\/le-point-de-bas-2\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Le point de bascule... - leblogenergie.com","twitter_description":"L’AIE apr\u00e8s l’IEA, le reconnait. 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