{"id":3987,"date":"2007-07-03T14:43:48","date_gmt":"2007-07-03T14:43:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/03\/la-grande-han-1\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:58:33","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:58:33","slug":"la-grande-han-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/03\/la-grande-han-1\/","title":{"rendered":"La grande hantise de l&rsquo;Opep II"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/opep_21.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"173\"  src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/opep_2.jpg\" alt=\"Opep_2\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a>La grande hantise de l&rsquo;Opep est de se retrouver dans la configuration des ann\u00e9es 1986. Une progression des ressources, une consommation qui stagne, et un prix qui s&rsquo;effondre. Toutes les \u00e9nergies souffrent, dans ces ann\u00e9es l\u00e0. Mais si la configuration n&rsquo;est pas exactement identique, l&rsquo;Opep a peur de beaucoup souffrir. Si les capacit\u00e9s de production ont du mal \u00e0 se maintenir, l&rsquo;inqui\u00e9tude se situe dans les marges de manoeuvres.<br \/>En effet, ind\u00e9pendamment des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, qui se d\u00e9veloppent, les possibilit\u00e9s sont \u00e9normes.<\/p>\n<p>Et si l&rsquo;on peut s&rsquo;attendre \u00e0 une <a href=\"http:\/\/www.senat.fr\/rap\/r05-426\/r05-426.html\">r\u00e9tractation de l&rsquo;offre<\/a>, la demande risque de chuter encore plus vite, et le continent europ\u00e9en est regard\u00e9 avec angoisse et effroi.<br \/>R\u00e9sumons : autonomie des batiments, progr\u00e9s industriels, seul les transports apparaissent incompressibles, mais encore, la crise iranienne le montre, le changement des circuits \u00e9conomiques, peuvent l\u00e0 aussi \u00eatre tr\u00e9s rapide. Les indispensables : le ketchup su\u00e9dois a 50 transports, la patate d&rsquo;isra\u00ebl, le haricot du burkina, sont tr\u00e9s facilement contournables. Il y a 30 ans, le haricot ne s&rsquo;importait pas, la patate, c&rsquo;\u00e9tait du sur place, et les nutritionnistes ne maudissaient pas le ketchup.<br \/>Avec, cette fois, la circonstance aggravante que le continent nord am\u00e9ricain n&rsquo;aura pas la possibilit\u00e9, cette fois de maintenir son mode de vie, ni m\u00eame la volont\u00e9. En effet, l&rsquo;esprit d&rsquo;\u00e9conomie semble aussi y souffler, et il risque d&rsquo;y souffler d&rsquo;autant plus fort, qu&rsquo;il est finalement plus en retard. En \u00e9conomie, on sait qu&rsquo;un retard se comble \u00e0 bouch\u00e9es doubles. 85 millions de barils jour de consommation \u00e0 l&rsquo;heure actuelle, autant de production. Des projections parlent d&rsquo;une <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libres.org\/francais\/conjoncture\/archives\/conjoncture_0405\/petrole_a1605.htm\">contraction de la production <\/a>de 2 millions de barils par an \u00e0 partir de 2010. Ce ne sont que des projections, mais les pays producteurs craignent fort une contraction de la consommation plus forte encore, de l&rsquo;ordre de 3 millions&#8230; Ils sont donc tr\u00e9s r\u00e9ticents \u00e0 investir&#8230;<br \/>Et les risques de crise de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie tr\u00e9s forte : apr\u00e9s un choc p\u00e9trolier, un <a href=\"http:\/\/recrutement.ifp.fr\/IFP\/fr\/decouvertes\/cles\/contexte_eco\/prix\/index.htm\">autre contre-choc p\u00e9trolier<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La grande hantise de l&rsquo;Opep est de se retrouver dans la configuration des ann\u00e9es 1986. Une progression des ressources, une consommation qui stagne, et un prix qui s&rsquo;effondre. Toutes les \u00e9nergies souffrent, dans ces ann\u00e9es l\u00e0. Mais si la configuration n&rsquo;est pas exactement identique, l&rsquo;Opep a peur de beaucoup souffrir. Si les capacit\u00e9s de production [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5794,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1702],"class_list":["post-3987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-retractation-de-loffre-autre-contre-choc-petrolier-contraction-de-la-production"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La grande hantise de l&#039;Opep II - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/07\/03\/la-grande-han-1\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"La grande hantise de l&#039;Opep II - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"La grande hantise de l&rsquo;Opep est de se retrouver dans la configuration des ann\u00e9es 1986. Une progression des ressources, une consommation qui stagne, et un prix qui s&rsquo;effondre. Toutes les \u00e9nergies souffrent, dans ces ann\u00e9es l\u00e0. Mais si la configuration n&rsquo;est pas exactement identique, l&rsquo;Opep a peur de beaucoup souffrir. 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