{"id":4023,"date":"2007-06-19T11:18:02","date_gmt":"2007-06-19T11:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/06\/19\/ils-nont-rien-c-1\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:57:56","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:57:56","slug":"ils-nont-rien-c-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/06\/19\/ils-nont-rien-c-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Ils n’ont rien compris ! II"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Region_parisienne\"<\/a> Les limites des pr\u00e9visionnistes et des hommes politiques indiquent clairement leurs limites mentales, leur peu d’exp\u00e9rience, et la facult\u00e9 de s’autointoxiquer.
Il me semble bon qu’apr\u00e9s les r\u00e9actions au premier article (ils n’ont rien compris), un certain nombre d’axiomes de base :
– on exporte que ses exc\u00e9dents, le Royaume-uni n’exporte plus de gaz, le Mexique de moins en moins de p\u00e9trole, un \u00e9tat est tr\u00e9s peu exportateur si l’on n’a pas d’exc\u00e9dent. Sauf volont\u00e9 politique d’affamer une population : Irlande de 1847, Urss sous Staline, mais aussi sous les tsars.<\/p>\n

– la volont\u00e9 de ne plus exporter, l’interdiction des exportations se g\u00e9n\u00e9ralise, comme l‘Ukraine avec son bl\u00e9<\/a>. Plus les "manques" se g\u00e9n\u00e9raliseront, plus la rupture de la mondialisation sera rapide. L’autoconsommation d’abord.
– le cours des denr\u00e9es agricoles<\/a> est directement li\u00e9 sur le cours du p\u00e9trole. Il a beaucoup augment\u00e9 depuis 2000.
– Il n’est jamais bon pour les pr\u00e9visonnistes d’avoir raison : que vaut une compagnie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re, si l’on sait que le p\u00e9trole sera bien absent ? Prudent, on fait comme si c’\u00e9tait toujours \u00e9ternel.
– Le renouvelable sera \u00e0 m\u00eame d’organiser une nouvelle soci\u00e9t\u00e9. De 1.5 \u00e0 2 milliards d’hommes maximum. En ce qui concerne la France 40 millions d’habitants (c’\u00e9tait atteint au 19\u00b0si\u00e9cle), c’est possible, 60 millions ce serait possible dans une fruste soci\u00e9t\u00e9 paysanne. Depuis, il y a quand m\u00eame eu des progr\u00e9s agricole, m\u00eame en mati\u00e8re de renouvelable. Mais ces sc\u00e9narios optimistes sont peu probables. En cas de crise sociale, ce sont souvent des \u00e9tats de guerre qui se recr\u00e9ent.<\/p>\n

La crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique renvoie \u00e0 Malthus : Essai sur le principe de population<\/a>. le fossile a permis de l’oublier un temps. Mais le travail de Malthus a \u00e9t\u00e9 assez fantastique, et il d\u00e9montre au 18\u00b0si\u00e9cle l’importance des structures sociales. Aujourd’hui, des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s post p\u00e9trole seraient d’abord destructur\u00e9es avant de se r\u00e9equilibrer.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les limites des pr\u00e9visionnistes et des hommes politiques indiquent clairement leurs limites mentales, leur peu d’exp\u00e9rience, et la facult\u00e9 de s’autointoxiquer.Il me semble bon qu’apr\u00e9s les r\u00e9actions au premier article (ils n’ont rien compris), un certain nombre d’axiomes de base :– on exporte que ses exc\u00e9dents, le Royaume-uni n’exporte plus de gaz, le Mexique de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1739],"class_list":["post-4023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-cours-des-denrees-agricoles-essai-sur-le-principe-de-population-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nIls n'ont rien compris ! II - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/06\/19\/ils-nont-rien-c-1\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Ils n'ont rien compris ! 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