{"id":4152,"date":"2007-05-03T13:03:33","date_gmt":"2007-05-03T13:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/05\/03\/35-ou-100\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:55:28","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:55:28","slug":"35-ou-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/05\/03\/35-ou-100\/","title":{"rendered":"– 35 % ou + 100 % ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Derrick\"<\/a>Nouvelles contradictoires en provenance du moyen-orient et de l’Asie.
En effet l’Opep r\u00e9uni \u00e0 Ryad pense qu’il n’y a pas lieu d’augmenter la production. On lui demande 9 Millions de barils jour de plus pour 2030. Le cartel s’appuie sur… l’incertitude de la demande : "l’inqui\u00e9tude de l’Opep est qu’ils ne veulent pas investir et se retrouver avec une capacit\u00e9 additionnelle"…pour ne pas r\u00e9pondre, en disant qu’il n’y a pas de probl\u00e8me pour les 80 prochaines ann\u00e9es.
Dans le m\u00eame temps, on pr\u00e9voit un doublement de la demande. En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, la plupart des pays de l’Opep sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint par la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion, mais ils savent aussi que l’on peut, tr\u00e9s vite se passer de p\u00e9trole. La technologie est pr\u00eate ou sera pr\u00eate bient\u00f4t.<\/p>\n

On mesure aussi le ridicule de certaines projections : le doublement, donc 170 MBJ. D\u00e9j\u00e0, l’Opep rechigne pour 9, et il est certain que la production recule pour cause de d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion<\/a> pour beaucoup. On voit donc clairement le foss\u00e9 entre le refus (plus 9 MBJ, et la demande th\u00e9orique : plus 85 MBJ). Donc d\u00e9j\u00e0 divergence profonde entre l’AIE<\/a> (agence internationale de l’\u00e9nergie) et l’Opep. Divergences des courbes aussi. T\u00f4t ou tard la simple projection devient absurde, et le d\u00e9crochage se fait d’abord par une moindre mont\u00e9e, puis par un d\u00e9crochage franc. D’ailleurs d’autres sources portent la production de p\u00e9trole en 2030 \u00e0 …55 millions de barils jours….(-35%).<\/p>\n

La simple v\u00e9rit\u00e9, c’est que les \u00e9tats p\u00e9troliers craignent surtout un arr\u00eat du gaspillage. Bien s\u00fbr, ils ne peuvent produire plus, mais une situation tendue (donc \u00e9nergie ch\u00e8re) leur va tout \u00e0 fait.<\/p>\n

Source AFP Ryad, Rian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nouvelles contradictoires en provenance du moyen-orient et de l’Asie. En effet l’Opep r\u00e9uni \u00e0 Ryad pense qu’il n’y a pas lieu d’augmenter la production. On lui demande 9 Millions de barils jour de plus pour 2030. Le cartel s’appuie sur… l’incertitude de la demande : "l’inqui\u00e9tude de l’Opep est qu’ils ne veulent pas investir et […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1864],"class_list":["post-4152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-depletion-aie"],"yoast_head":"\n- 35 % ou + 100 % ? - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/05\/03\/35-ou-100\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"- 35 % ou + 100 % ? - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Nouvelles contradictoires en provenance du moyen-orient et de l’Asie. En effet l’Opep r\u00e9uni \u00e0 Ryad pense qu’il n’y a pas lieu d’augmenter la production. On lui demande 9 Millions de barils jour de plus pour 2030. 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