{"id":4240,"date":"2007-04-06T16:27:56","date_gmt":"2007-04-06T16:27:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/04\/06\/ptrole-et-pouvo\/"},"modified":"2012-07-12T09:53:57","modified_gmt":"2012-07-12T09:53:57","slug":"ptrole-et-pouvo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/04\/06\/ptrole-et-pouvo\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u00e9trole et Btp"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/girouette1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"226\"  src=\"http:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/files\/2012\/07\/girouette.jpg\" alt=\"Girouette\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 5px 0px;float: left\" \/><\/a>Quand la girouette elle tourne, ce n&rsquo;est pas de sa faute, mais de celle du vent. <br \/>Le prix du baril peut \u00eatre aussi volatil que la girouette. En effet, si \u00e0 terme, la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re aura du mal \u00e0 se maintenir, le prix n&rsquo;est que le rapport entre la production et la consommation.<br \/>Et le Fmi nous dit : &quot;le ralentissement Us, n&rsquo;est pas contagieux et ne devrait pas durer&quot;. Cela rel\u00e9ve plus de l&rsquo;article de foi que de l&rsquo;avis document\u00e9. En effet, on apprend :<br \/>&#8211; qu&rsquo;il y a un ralentissement US, notamment en mati\u00e8re immobili\u00e9re,<br \/>&#8211; que le dit ralentissement ne se propage pas \u00e0 la consommation et \u00e0 l&rsquo;investissement.<\/p>\n<p>Pourtant, il est une chose s\u00fbre, c&rsquo;est que le Btp est fortement consommateur d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie et de main d&rsquo;oeuvre. La crise du <a href=\"http:\/\/www.btp.equipement.gouv.fr\/\">btp<\/a>, naturellement devrait entrainer licenciements (donc m\u00e9caniquement baisse de consommation, y compris \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique), baisse de l&rsquo;investissement (m\u00eame si l&rsquo;on utilise encore pas mal de petits bras muscl\u00e9s dans ce secteur), contraction des encours de pr\u00eats.<br \/>En clair, pour les prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie, un grand \u00e9cart avec d\u00e9chirements des adducteurs est fort possible. Le prix du baril de p\u00e9trole est sans doute amener \u00e0 d\u00e9visser dans des proportions importantes, d&rsquo;autant plus fortement que la r\u00e9cession sera importante. <br \/>N\u00e9anmoins, il ne faut pas oublier que l&rsquo;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.industrie.gouv.fr\/energie\/politiqu\/memorandum-france.htm\">investissement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est un investissement \u00e0 long terme<\/a>. Si les \u00e9nergies renouvelables venaient \u00e0 \u00eatre p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es (elles le seront certainement) ce serait sans doute tr\u00e8s provisoirement (cas du <a href=\"http:\/\/lasen.epfl.ch\/page40003.html\">bio\u00e9thanol br\u00e9silien<\/a>).<br \/>Par ailleurs, toute r\u00e9cession Us serait, contrairement \u00e0 ce qui est dit, tr\u00e9s contagieuse, par l&rsquo;interm\u00e9diaire du colossal d\u00e9ficit&nbsp; ext\u00e9rieur. Le point positif pour les \u00e9tats-unis (et le monde) en serait la mise \u00e0 plat de la surconsommation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, une p\u00e9riode de r\u00e9cession \u00e9tant aussi une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 l&rsquo;heure est aux \u00e9conomies (d&rsquo;\u00e9nergies, entre autres).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quand la girouette elle tourne, ce n&rsquo;est pas de sa faute, mais de celle du vent. Le prix du baril peut \u00eatre aussi volatil que la girouette. En effet, si \u00e0 terme, la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re aura du mal \u00e0 se maintenir, le prix n&rsquo;est que le rapport entre la production et la consommation.Et le Fmi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198,"featured_media":5290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[1947],"class_list":["post-4240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-energie-fossile","tag-btp-bioethanol-bresilien-investissement-energetique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>P\u00e9trole et Btp - leblogenergie.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.thesocialmedia.com\/leblogenergie\/2007\/04\/06\/ptrole-et-pouvo\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"P\u00e9trole et Btp - leblogenergie.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Quand la girouette elle tourne, ce n&rsquo;est pas de sa faute, mais de celle du vent. Le prix du baril peut \u00eatre aussi volatil que la girouette. 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